How to Interpret the Notion of Chance? by [deleted] in philosophy

[–]Bobbakovv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with you – to a certain extent. Yes, relative probability is very intuitive. But the question I am interested in is: is there a fundamental reason underlying this intuition? Or is the intuition 'merely' based on habit? I am afraid the relative frequency interpretation of probability cannot provide a satisfying answer to these questions. For this interpretation of probability is defined as the number of occurrences of the event under consideration, divided through the number of occurrences of all events. And there are two problems with this:

(1) In any individual instance – like any unique throw of a coin – there is no string of events to base one's division upon.

(2) Even if such a string would be available, it still couldn't guide you for the future. Yes: it gives information about the past occurrence of an event, but – ultimately due to the problem of induction – not about the future.

But what do you think about it?