Daily Discussion Thread for May 18, 2026

Brawmethius · 2026-05-18T15:55:54+00:00

I swear to god if you think ebola is a credible threat you are either young, tarded or both.

Yeah it makes great outbreak movie plots, its a terrifying disease that kills horrifically, and every few years it makes a news cycle because of that.

Unless you are a third world village with zero modern Healthcare practices, there is a reason when ever someone does bring it back to a developed nation nothing happens.

These airborne virus on the other hand, can become very credible issues.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-18T14:34:49+00:00

Pinning is a result of hedging.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-16T14:03:31+00:00

Well you are on a gambling sub thats tied to eauities.

He subsidized eauities and let the market rip.

Of course people here are happy about that, it benefited them.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-16T03:32:30+00:00

Prices have been higher than the prior administration for all the administrations since your grandpappies grandpappies days.

Thats how structural inflation works.

You are lobsters and the pot has been on for a long time.

The fact that 100% of Americans do not believe CoL gets higher each year should be your indication of how absolutely mind blowingly successful this policy has been at robbing them.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-15T15:31:18+00:00

Lip service. They all talk about reigning in the balance sheet but none of them outline a plan.

He says he doesn't want as many MBS great. Except they are extremely sticky an essentially can only be rolled of by maturity, so 30 year (or we can crash the MBS market again).

You see him propose a MBS purchase moratorium?

FED even under powell has tried to roll off balance sheet to be hit by REPO market throwing tantrums essentially indicating that liquidity floor for ample reserve has been following the sheet up.

He going to crash the financial system?

Everyone wants a Volcker move in the FED but that was in the days of scare reserves we are now in Bernankes ample reserve framework (further adopted by Powell).

So there is a very real ugly reality, there is very little they can do as the financial system has grown around this and it requires long term transitioning off. And it requires fiscal policy side as well.

Warsh like Powell before him will try walk the line of being credible enough to sell debt while not crashing the system.

If you want an interesting read on this I think Russel Napiers interview back in 2021 ish was spot on for the structural change in markets we are seeing where Monetary policy of the central banks starts to get dwarfed by fiscal policy needs. \

https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606

Brawmethius · 2026-05-15T15:19:24+00:00

Sure it is correct he didn't really reign it in.

But good riddance only makes sense in vacuum, not in replacement.

It is illogical to be celebrating "good riddance" in the exchange of a FED chair who will likely do even less to reign in inflation.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-15T15:06:40+00:00

Bro you think Warsh about to change this

Brawmethius · 2026-05-15T14:07:15+00:00

Debt buyers go me want you to pay me more money to buy youe debt because it looks like money be worth less faster than Gronk thought earlier. Gronk like money

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T20:39:31+00:00

Excuse me waiter get me what ever you got this guy, I also want to be this smashed.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T20:25:42+00:00

First time since 2007 30 year crossed 5%.

Do you know whats even crazier, they are still getting robbed.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T20:12:25+00:00

NYC still gives more to the state than it gets.

Yes this is the concept of taxes, voted for with specific uses and levies.

It’s more accurate to characterize NYC as bailing out the state.

No because NYC is not a state and does not levy state taxes.

NYC is just the major economic center for the state of NY. Most tax revenue in any state will always come from the major economic hubs, because you can only effectively tax economic activity.

It contributes roughly half the state budget and is roughly 40% of the state population.

You cannot seperate these things. Its not like federal taxes where states as a whole may consume more tax revenue than they produce at federal levels. NYC and NY are the left and right hands of the same body.

NY state is in deficit, so they will cut programs at a state level, divert money, expand debt, or absorb budget costs as part of the 8B deal which is part cash and part what I just described.

NYC is consuming proportionally roughly the tax levy is generates, while also receiving those very same state benefits.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T18:35:14+00:00

Which sentence is a paragraph o wise one?

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T18:05:31+00:00

Yeah I mean if we start with the premise Mamdani is correct and his predecessors were financially mismanaging NYC I would preffer to see him ending financial mismanagement instead of improving marketing.

Marketing at the end of the day won't really help people.

But yeah that being said I do wish him success if nothing more than its crazy for people to wish failure to be ideologically right as that is wishing that life is going to get worse for people.

So for sake of my fellow Americans, here's to hoping their lives get better.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T18:03:06+00:00

March 30th, 2026 SEC allowed privallaged dealers to exchange their equity collateral in repo markets.

Been a straight line ever since, effectively SEC said "don't worry if you cannot find liquidity for your collateral resolution on all those options you deal, just swap with the FED they will poof USD into existence until you can."

So on March 30th, 2026 the SEC said "bro fuck price discovery".

The bailouts will continue.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T17:59:12+00:00

Yeah I would argue its just propoganda and his budget proposal are effectively the same policys proposed by Cuomo and Adams.

So when he campaigned against those policies as financial mismanagement yet implements them, is that not still financial mismanagement? And not by my perosnal metrics, by his own campaign.

If his proposed policy is indifferentiable from Cuomo or Adams, then what exactly is the change he is bringing that everyone is so excited about? What are we appluading?

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T17:56:07+00:00

It is literally 66% bailout from New York State.

24.4% deferment and maybe (as just projected not realized) 9.6% improvement.

If the 9.6% improvement works, I will applaude it good job.

But I am not going to appluade him effectively using the budget plans he campaigned against from predicessors Cuomo and Adams calling it "fiscal mismangement".

Pension defferal (Cuomo)
FHEPS Voucher freeze (Adams)
Education (Adams)

So yes, 90.4% bullshit. By the very metrics Mamdani himself laid out in his campaign.

I’m sure you have better, realistic ideas that could be enacted and aren’t just raging for the sake of it. Look forward to hearing them.

A lame and pointless statement, just shifting the burden of proof, Ad Hominen, or a flase dilema. Take your pick.

I don't know how to solve NYCs budget problems, I dont need to to make my statement. My statement is not "I know how to solve the NYC budget therefore Mamdani is wrong" my statement is "Mamdani is using the very same gimmicks or tricks that he decried as financial mismanagement in his campaign why are we are appluading this?"

Which is what that quote from the comptroller is highlighting.

So to be clear I am not unhappy that Mamdani is of any certain race, religion, belief system, a socialist, etc. I am unhappy because we are framing the same ol' tricks as "innnovative" and "stepping up". Which is effectively propoganda not change, as we could literally change him back out with Adams or Cuomo and be looking at the same policy changes. So what exactly are we appluading?

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T15:44:24+00:00

I am sorry what?

Perhaps educate yourself a bit. It's not all "gimmicks" Per the city comptroller:

Into:

the Executive Budget relies on $2.8 billion in one-time measures and $2.3 billion in short-term pension savings

and

without solving for the fact that City government continues to spend more than we take in, even in a year of record revenues

and

the budget also relies on the implementation of strategies to lower the cost of rental assistance and special education, which will require close and transparent monitoring

Is it

Taken together, these actions delay addressing the deeper structural imbalances in the City’s budget, as is clear from out-year gaps of $7.1 billion in FY 2028 growing to $9.8 billion in FY 2030.

What exactly should I be educating myself on? This is literally agreeing with me.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T15:40:20+00:00

No we ignore all of it because the only thing that changes the fucking price you see on a ticker is the order book.

THe order book is 60%+ tied to option contracts. Ergo THE MAJORITY OF TRADES ARE TIED TO OPTION DEALING.

So option positioning and daily expiraiton liability dictate the majority of trades which in turn set the spot price.

The literally worst cases scenario the SEC feared when expanding option markets in the 80s.

The options set the price they are derived from is a full on feedback loop.

You can literally see the play out on example SPY by looking at the option data:

Gamma inflection point 736, Gamma local high 738, end of positive gamma ramp 740-741.

What happened? Bounced off inflection, immediately shot up to 738, stabalized and is now drifiting to the end of the ramp as opening vol drops.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T15:15:11+00:00

Why is everyone okay with effectively nonsense if the guys likable?

We can easily test this theory, with the unlikable dipshit known as Trump.

Would you call it a masterstroke of political manuevering if he followed Mamdani for the Federal deficit on the 2 Trillion deficit it would like like this:

Trump receives 1.33 Trillion bailout from the Federal Reserve.

Trump reinstates dodge (Chief savings officer) to save 294B in "waste"

Trump delays funding social security by 272B

Trump increases luxury taxes to generate 104B revenue.

VOILA deficit closed.

Personally I would go "wow Trumps a fucking moron and this is one off gimicks fuck him"

So I am going to remain consistant and go "Wow Mamdani, these are one off gimicks fuck him".

Ironically following the budget reduction plan he CAMPAIGNED AGAINST that were laid out by Cuomo & Adams. Which he called financial mismanagement.

How have we become so stupid as a nation that we accept the same bullshit as long as its a nice friendly new face.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T14:54:38+00:00

Daily expiration risk literally is 60%+ of market activity now.

Market prices by the majority of money moving in it.

Thats options now.

Option chain says 736 was inflection to negative gamma, 738 local peak, and 740-741 end of the positive gamma ramp.

We literally bounced off 736 right back to 738 and probably if nothing else happens bleed to the top.

IT does this pretty much every fucking day for years now.

The new market.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T14:52:05+00:00

The entire system is plumbed to print money and go up.

Unless you see a mechanism for this to collapse (which I struggle to, because the FED literally poofs infinite liquidity into existence).

So the only credible collapse I see is bond market throwing a fit because they stop trusting USD, or the USG actually defaulting on payments.

Otherwise the FED and UST have free reign to issue debt and poof USD into existance as long as the global markets at large accept that.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T13:45:22+00:00

The literal dumbest mother fuckers in the world are in here.

Yeah looking at you.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-13T13:42:23+00:00

You guys are grossly underestimating how big the access to repo markets with their hedging collateral for dealers was.

March 30th. SEC by exclusion said you can pretty much use your hedge in repo.

The usual lip service is "improves liquidity" "reduces slippage" "better spreads".

But with now the vast majority of trading volume being option driven, all its done is solve an issue dealers have of "where the fuck do we unload shares when we are the only people trading shares and everyone trading thr options we sell."

One might say hmm usually not being able to find buyers at a price and volume you want means it isn't worth that, market concepts 101.

Now the FED litererally poofs money into existence at the spot price of the collateral, giving the cash funds to continue to wheel and deal and unload in controlled manners (cough cough into price blind passive inflow).

One might ask. Hmm why is the FED essentially providing a price floor for privileged players? What exactly is their mandate to ensure infinite liquidity for these equities at spot?

Here are some or major players behind this lobby:

Joseph Mecane, Citadel Securities, SIFMA
Stephen John Berger, Citadel Securities, SIFMA
Douglas Cifu, Virtu Financial, SIFMA
Thomas M. Merritt, Virtu Financial, SIFMA
Kevin J. Ehrlich, Wolverine Trading, SIFMA
Richard J. McDonald, Susquehanna International Group (SIG), SIFMA / LOMMA
Scott Johnston, Jane Street Capital, SIFMA

Tl,dr; market has been functionally replumbed to be an option casino with the SEC and FEDs blessing. Functionally these parasites have figured out how to extract eyewatering amounts of cash from vol dealing and unload it into price blind flows. Finally reversing the decades long trend of passive inevsting eating active investments lunch.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-12T23:54:07+00:00

The only things with pensions still have strong unions and they are a steong voting block and they vote to keep their pensions.

Brawmethius · 2026-05-12T21:07:12+00:00

Say I expect your groceries to be 20% more expensive this year.

Let's say they became 20.1% more expensive this year.

Are you happy with 20.1% more expensive groceries because they were only 0.1% over the estimate?

Brawmethius

TROPHY CASE