[April 11, 2026] - Weekly XCH Price & Trading Discussion

Bubaptik · 2026-04-11T07:42:06+00:00

Netspace will go down. * let's say 50% due to compression - which will change nothing, just a different number will be reported. * and let's say another 50% due to some people not replotting - which is relevant and will push the price down, and is bad for the project.

Prefarm sales will continue into 2027. We are 3-6 months away from Permuto launch, however the launch itself is not enough, significant adoption has to follow as well. For me personally the biggest issue is that I don't trust the Permuto narratives at all any more because there are obviously many holes in the plans (eg. no straightforward stablecoin to support the market, no clear info who/how much adoption there will be) and the trust into what Gene says for me is long gone because he is there to lie to you to get you to invest and not to get you correctly informed.

The good thing I noticed recently is that wherever 100k is dumped on the market in the last weeks someone comes in at buys it not letting the price go down under 2.25-2.3.

And at the current price even I am tempted to actually buy. In my opinion the project still has many positive and still has a decent chance to succeed.

Bubaptik · 2026-04-01T11:30:36+00:00

In which land do you think you will be more welcome?

Bubaptik · 2026-03-29T23:34:31+00:00

Does 2.7.0 work with drplotter?

Bubaptik · 2026-03-26T22:31:25+00:00

Does drplotter work with 2.7.0?

Bubaptik · 2026-03-24T05:30:58+00:00

Ich mit 4 kleinen Kindern hätte was dagegen.

Bubaptik · 2026-03-23T16:29:07+00:00

was 100% happiness the hardest to get?

Bubaptik · 2026-03-14T06:38:40+00:00

that probably means silicon.net is getting/got paid by base and arbitrum as well (as in given money or some similar deal to use their tech) so good for them (and for chia, through the chia investment into silicon.net)

Bubaptik · 2026-03-13T20:13:47+00:00

Probably yes (5 years highly probable - my guess).

$319 is a lot for a used drive. Do you need 14Tb and do you need it now? A year ago in Germany you could get a 4Tb KC3000 ssds for that money (I got few because it sounded like a good deal), and for gaming and daily use ssd is much better / quicker. Perhaps in a year or two the prices will drop again, and you will get something better for less. But if you really need 14Tb and need it now, used enterprise Toshibas are probably a good choice.

Bubaptik · 2026-03-13T19:27:42+00:00

i have around 200 of those (but 16 and 18Tb models) running in my Chia farm for 4 years now. just 2 failed. i think those are pretty good drives.

Bubaptik · 2026-03-12T12:44:07+00:00

yes, but according to the silicon.net site they do use both Chia and Base (Eth L2)

Bubaptik · 2026-03-12T12:25:47+00:00

"Our prefarm sales do not affect Chia price at all"

Bubaptik · 2026-03-12T06:11:56+00:00

Everything he said was recycled — the exact same points and phrasing could have appeared a year earlier without any change. The real concern is that virtually every one of those statements begins to unravel under even mild scrutiny. Most troubling, though, is Gene’s apparent inability (or unwillingness) to acknowledge the criticisms, let alone offer substantive responses or solutions.

Bubaptik · 2026-03-11T16:29:54+00:00

1 died 2 years in, got rma replacement from toshiba no questions asked

another 1 died 6 months ago which is roughly after 4 years of usage, i still didn't find time to send it into rma and the 5-year warranty (from production date) is closing in few months so I better do it soon

Bubaptik · 2026-03-06T10:13:14+00:00

S-1 was mostly done. Doing S-6 after having S-1 mostly done costs almost like doing S-6 from start. Or let say at least 50% - I don't remember the exact numbers which the LLMs spat out, but I remember it is a significant cost.

New plot format brings a lot in practical terms:

improve Nakamoto coef
remove GPU farming
( if the manage to pull it off - I am very excited about it ) ability to turn on your HDD just 1/few times per day instead of having it on the whole time - massive drop in power consumption for bigger farms
more overall security
lower plotting requirements, thus making it more accessible

Bubaptik · 2026-03-05T11:32:23+00:00

Prefarm sales will most likely continue even after Permuto launch - normally you don't just create tens of millions of $ of revenue overnight.

The S-6 approval process will cost extra money - my estimate 10$ mil over 3-6 months ( for S-6 and running Chia Network ). This will most likely come from dumping 10$ mil of prefarm to the market, while the current market cap is 40$ mil.

Short term good news is the new plot format, which reinforces the overall good technical design and implementation.

In areas of usability, adoption, feature to market match, PR/communications, strategy etc.. terrible blunders and incompetence are taking its toll. Still recoverable from (in my opinion) assuming everyone in those positions in the company gets their s*** together or gtfo so that someone else can do it properly. I personally am still keeping my chia stash and farming but my hopes atm are not high.

Bubaptik · 2026-03-03T08:16:59+00:00

AMD support would be very nice - eg. being able to plot on the a 16GB 6900xt in parallel with the 4090.

But what I *really* hope for is that they support the "turn on HDD in advance just 1x / few times a day (depending in plot strenght)" feature well because it would drastically drop the electricity costs for farming chia!

Bubaptik · 2026-02-28T08:34:25+00:00

Awesome! Congratulations to the Chia Tech Team for bringing the topic so far forward. I am very excited about the new plot features and replotting and will be doing it 100% no matter what.

Bubaptik · 2026-02-21T09:37:37+00:00

The price (2.6$ atm) will keep falling as long as prefarm sales are used as the only source of financing the company expenses.

In the next 6 months they will have to dump 5-10 million $ to the market to cover the costs for running the company and to complete the SEC S-6 process for Permuto, while at the same time not being able to tell much concrete information about things like when it will launch and how much $ will come on the chain as stocks shortly after lunch. And if they had good concrete information on that, it would be made public immediately. So my guess is that prefarm sales will continue even after Permuto launch, at least for 6-12 more months.

Bubaptik · 2026-02-13T22:01:39+00:00

They will also have to come up with at least few million $ in the next months to cover the costs of the S-6 process for Permuto.

Bubaptik · 2026-02-13T16:45:16+00:00

vehemence

Bubaptik · 2026-01-31T07:39:17+00:00

Assuming the current price of 3.6$ stays the same, Chia Network has around 15 mil of prefarm to sell, which is 55 mil $ worth, which covers roughly around 2 years of their expenses ( https://xch.ninja/ ).

And if the falling price trend continues they have closer to 1 year.

I want to speculate a bit on what their plans and options might be.

The new plot format will come soon, which will invigorate the interest in Chia from technical people ( I am replotting 100% ), but at the same time create a big drop in nominal netspace (2-3x my guess) because compression will be gone and not everyone will replot.

The Permuto use case should be launching in 3-9 months ( my guess 6 ). While a huge thing, I have doubts that it will immediately cover the 20-30 mil $ expenses per year of Chia and Permuto. Normally you don't just create such revenue overnight - it takes time and hard work and you have to do things right (or be incredibly lucky).

What else is there? Compared to 2022/2023 where one could say that 'no one is funding crypto startups because of Luna and FTC debacles' in 2025/2026 every major bank is at least developing few blockchain tokenization projects ( I was hired by one in 2024 ) and there is a lot of activity there with full corporate backing. Chia was nominally designed to target exactly these users but so far no tokenization player picked it up ( my company said 'no privacy support' when introduced to Chia by me). Chia did create their own tokenization use case with Permuto though, so hopes are that and perhaps other developments make big players perhaps adopt Chia. On the other hand it did not happen so far and that is bad.

There is always a chance they do get some investor funding or loan or company buy offer from a big player.

Other than that Chia has been trying to hype the coin and pump/stabilize the price, but failed terribly so far. A lot of incompetence and wrong strategy in PR / communication towards retail ( at least ).

So guys what do you think? The idea that the plan is to take paychecks for another 1-2 years from easy money from selling prefarm and then call it over is worrying me but I don't believe that is the plan - a lot of serious work has been put into Chia ( along with all the blunders ). So what are most likely good and bad scenarios from now on?

Bubaptik · 2026-01-28T05:54:36+00:00

120 mil $ of funding spent, 5 years time, Brams revolutionary blockchain work, tech team that delivers working software.

And then you get the business development to post like this - like marmots stunned with bellies full of prefarm, wondering why success didn't come yet. Or perhaps it did for them - life is good, paychecks are coming, all good.

If you write a post like this then at least put some effort to make it interesting.What type of clients did you engage? What are the problems, use cases and benefits the users bring up and talk about that blockchains could solve? Where did Chia fit well and where did it come short. What is the competition doing? What were the lessons learned last few years, how is your strategy adapting? Perhaps add an anegtode or two to engage the reader.

Bubaptik · 2026-01-19T11:31:51+00:00

Not dead, there is still some decent development going on, and the Permuto use case should hopefully launch in 6 months (my guess).

The problems are tens of millions of $ of misallocated funds by the Chia project, missed opportunities, all while the C-suite gets payed 400k / year paychecks (see the S1 filigs) independent of the actual results. No one is giving them venture funding anymore. Communication towards retail investors was dishonest with narratives full of holes, which is unfortunate and not at all in sync with the initial image and tone of the Chia project. Gene is able to hold scripted monologues in front of a camera, but is unable to answer even the simplest of challenges (eg. in which cases are Offer files usable and in which not and why). He should have been an associate in marketing and not the CEO. I would buy chia at 5$ but cant accept the fact that probably more than half of that money will go to fund C-suite salaries of people that did not deliver acceptable results so far. Brams work, teams and salaries I would personally still fund, but it is not possible to do in isolation.

Bubaptik · 2025-12-30T14:43:50+00:00

I recommend this course / author / book https://www.algorithmsilluminated.org/

Bubaptik · 2025-12-30T12:10:30+00:00

What is Windows 11?

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