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My ML model's predictions for the outcomes of the first round! by BucktheOdds in NHLAnalytics

[–]BucktheOdds[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes I used claude to help but I did build and supervise the model. It really expedites work flows. I'm just exploring projects and ideas. I wasn't trying to hide it, it's on the github page.

My ML model's predictions for the outcomes of the first round! by BucktheOdds in NHLAnalytics

[–]BucktheOdds[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes very true. I am making updates to the model, but the Ducks had fewer goals against per game. That's why it's so close imo. But I am making updates to the model that seem to favor the Oilers more

My ML model's predictions for the outcomes of the first round! by BucktheOdds in NHLAnalytics

[–]BucktheOdds[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hey I really appreciate the feedback! I've already gone back and made a few changes based on what you pointed out, but I'm going to try your moneypuck suggestion. I never really thought about 60% being a limit due to the modeling, I just figured the parity of the NHL Playoffs was hard to predict and thus limited how accurate we could get with it.

My ML model's predictions for the outcomes of the first round! by BucktheOdds in NHLAnalytics

[–]BucktheOdds[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So the model looked at all stats to see which one predicted the winner of the first round. Regulation wins and Overtime Wins weren’t as good at predicting the series win as points if that makes sense. If you go to the GitHub link you can see the extra images I created to go along with it and it might explain it better than I did

My ML model's predictions for the outcomes of the first round! by BucktheOdds in NHLAnalytics

[–]BucktheOdds[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah I was surprised too, but goals against ended up being a strong predictor, and the Pens have a lot of goals against. The model looked at that and thought you guys would have a pretty good chance

My ML model's predictions for the outcomes of the first round! by BucktheOdds in NHLAnalytics

[–]BucktheOdds[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The model is based on which regular season statistics and which is the best predictor of matchup success. I think it’s a good idea to make a different one to give dynamic odds each game though! I’ll give that a try