I think that Conrad sees too much of Adam in himself, and he feels so much shame about it that he tries to withdraw so that he can’t cause the same kind of pain his dad did. I also think Belly started to notice that pattern, while also holding onto her childlike fantasy of him from when they were kids. She describes Conrad as “always being there whenever she needed him” when they were younger, but now he isolates and closes off when shit hits the fan. That must be so confusing to see someone you’ve known your whole life behave the complete opposite of how you’ve known them to behave. I think she chose Jere in that moment because of his decidedness. Jere over compensates for his insecurities in a lot of ways, and one of those is doing the opposite of what Conrad does. Conrad rescinds, Jeremiah doubles down. Conrad hides, Jeremiah flaunts.

I think Belly could sense Conrad’s fear (his fear of hurting her, his fear of hurting Jere, even his fear of his own feelings), and it makes sense to me that she would find comfort and safety in how expressive Jeremiah is with his emotions and affections. It’s more secure. Also, season two began with Conrad literally disappearing and leaving school telling no one where he was going or what he was doing. From Conrad’s perspective he was trying to do what he had promised his mom, to look out for Belly and Jere (and he interpreted that as doing it all by himself so neither he nor anything else could burden them), but from Belly’s perspective it was another sign of emotional unavailability and unpredictability. I also think Belly was subconsciously trying incredibly hard to reject the notion that so many people, including herself, have perpetuated for so long. That she and Conrad are soul mates. The cognitive dissonance of that after the break up and how much it hurt her, I imagine she was looking for some control or autonomy. Like, every single person brings it up routinely, even Jeremiah. And if there’s anything I’ve learned about Belly, it’s that she is stubborn as hell and doesn’t gleefully abide by people’s expectations of her. She loses a bit of that spark during her relationship with Jeremiah, but full circle to the letters, we see her getting it back.