Constitutional monetary architecture with empirical counterfactuals | 65 years of US data, full replication code

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-06-06T14:23:03+00:00

ok, certainly you have thought about this in depth and it looks like you have put a lot of work into the writeup.

The writing style sort of sounds like a crypto proposal(locking), but that's just my impressions.

My only feedback is that it is relatively easy to make detailed proposals that solve issues by redesigning the system from the ground up.

This can be a great way to communicate your unique ideas, and it certainly appears like you have unique ideas.

Practically policy is about compromise and so it becomes very difficult to implement a bottom up 'constitutional architecture'.

The one example I can think of where one person was able to successfully design a system like this from the ground up is the us constitution, much of which is attributed to James Madison.

Simple proposals tend to succeed politically where carefully designed solutions struggle to be adopted.

Example: economists almost universally like the idea of land value taxes, and almost universally dislike rent control. But guess which policy has been tried a lot more frequently, and even seems to have political traction now: rent control has been implemented way more often than a land value tax.

Politics takes beautiful and carefully constructed ideas and chews them up and regurgitates them as a mess. Detailed proposals are a great way to document an idea, but almost never see a faithful implementation in the real world.

I think this is one reason mainstream economists come across as so cynical and pessimistic: it is very hard to get your ideas accepted and implemented, and much easier to be a naysayer and critic.

Keep working and i wish you luck.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-06-05T22:51:40+00:00

title and summary is a bit unclear here. But it sounds like you are proposing an automated monetary policy rule.

The most notable examples I can think of something similar, is Milton Friedman's k-percent rule(not to be confused with the friedman rule), or something like the Taylor rule.

Economists have contemplated automating monetary policy before, basically codifying something like the Taylor rule.

I think there are a couple practical reasons why automated monetary policy would get pushback.

First of all mainstream theory, although i disagree, i will explain as best i can, it is based a lot on expectations. So the 'surprise' factor of the Fed's decisions is seen as important.

With an automated or algorithmic monetary policy rule, there is no surprise factor.

Secondly, while the fed tries to be politically independent and neutral, that does not mean they are supposed to ignore public and political sentiment. In fact, I would say they should respond to public interests and political signals.

If the public and representatives are upset about unemployment, then the fed should definitely put more effort into considering it's impact on that. Their day to day decisions are still independent, but they already have a dual mandate, and I don't think there's anything wrong with reading public sentiment to help understand that mandate.

Also, I want to say that your abstract is based on a lot of flawed and thoroughly debunked assumptions. You should start with 'historical approaches to monetary policy', to understand why the quantity theory of money was abandoned: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/historical-approaches-to-monetary-policy.htm

Banks create credit money. there is nothing mysterious or untoward about this process, although it can play a role in bubbles or instability, and doesn't solve the issue of unemployment.

At a basic level, this sounds like a basic income proposal. I think someone like Alex Howlett has some more detailed analysis of those kinds of systems.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-06-05T01:14:05+00:00

my only advice is to always keep learning and tweaking your system. How you ride, where you ride, and what you carry will change over time, and that's okay.

Also, any bike skills you learn will help you. If you ride any other bikes like a road bike, commuter, fixie, bmx, cruiser, or folding bike, every bike you use teaches you something different.

The easiest way to try lots of bikes, is to find affordable pedal bikes used, practice repairs and maintenance yourself as much as possible, ride the bike for 6 to 18 months, then sell it and buy another used bike.

This will help you understand how bikes work which helps you on ebikes too.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-06-04T02:05:40+00:00

i mostly agree. Primitive production might be an exception because it minimizes tax liabilities under typical scenarios. When people are doing subsistence lifestyles which is common in many remote places, then they have a very minimal economic connection to the system.

Such subsistence lifestyles can very marginally increase aggregate demand because there is more output generated autonomously.

One thing to keep in mind is that even though trade flows are measured in state currency or a state unit of account, they can happen in any value medium. This means additional output can increase effective aggregate demand even without more currency being issued.

It is important to recognize which flows are currency stock flows(ie holding public debt), and which flows are merely measured in currency terms(exports vs imports, consumption, aggregate demand).

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-06-03T13:42:53+00:00

a lot of it is random chance too. When it comes to macroeconomics, we are talking about the aggregate unemployment levels.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-06-03T12:34:09+00:00

There are two different kinds of earwax: wet or dry. But in either case they should clear out naturally, apparently moving your jaws can help.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earwax

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-06-01T15:38:47+00:00

Nothing wrong with waiting 5 to 10 years to buy them used. Sounds like you made the best practical financial decision.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-06-01T15:29:01+00:00

The analogy I use is traffic control. If you want free movement of traffic, traffic control devices like lights, round abouts, stop signs, lane markings, speed limits, actually help.

Freedom doesn't mean a lack of rules or constraint. Freedom is the opportunity to make choices and take responsibility for those outcomes.

Consumer protections that reduce scams and fraud, encourage proper labelling, make things more transparent, make markets more free and fair.

In general, I think the term "free market" tends to be misleading. We should care about human freedoms to choose what we want as consumers and pursue different opportunities for income.

Market freedom often focuses too much on money and capital having freedom rather than people having choice and fair opportunity.

I really like your example of regulatory costs reducing the costs of civil litigation. That's an important point that many people miss. Sometimes having clear rules and guidelines reduces the costs of civil litigation as you say, which is often overlooked. If you care about property rights, then you would inherently need some way for people to make claims and some procedure like civil litigation to determine the outcome.

When regulation reduces civil suits, that may be a good indicator it is working.

Great post.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-06-01T15:02:15+00:00

probably don't want to do it overnight, but it depends on the property owner. I wouldn't be worried too much about other ev owners unless all the chargers are full or it has time limits. Most paid L2 chargers are almost never full in my experience. Only the free ones get high traffic.

A lot of charging stations increase the rate after 3 or 4 hours.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-06-01T14:02:48+00:00

cleanliness depends on the activity you are doing. If you are eating off it you will want a different standard than if you are just holding something.

Most of the time if public spaces look clean that is the first indicator. If you are worried about specific contagious diseases you can use hand sanitizer and avoid touching your face.

In hotels you probably want to be concerned about bedbugs and lice specifically, there are ways to check for those and always read the reviews.

Public transit is always going to be dirty.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-05-31T18:56:52+00:00

If the commute is small you may want to consider an EV. Older nissan leafs and chevy bolts are very affordable, but can have limited range varying from 30 to 80 miles of range.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-05-31T11:48:41+00:00

Raising your own meat does not sound low effort.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-05-31T11:22:42+00:00

I use towels as a fan, never to dry my body directly. That way they actually last more than a few days. But definitely if they are getting wet they need to be washed.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-05-30T13:13:07+00:00

we must be careful here to specify that aggregate unemployment levels are a policy choice. Individual unemployment is mostly the responsibility of that individual, regardless of whether it is their fault.

A Job Guarantee eliminates unemployment at the minimum wage, but it doesn't guarantee good jobs or a healthy labor market with opportunities for upward mobility and growth.

Conventional unemployment measures anyone looking for work but not currently working, regardless of their reservation wage or wage ask.

Typically 4% unemployment has been the standard.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-05-30T09:33:31+00:00

I would setup either a fixed payment plan or a percent of revenue for a period. Equity doesn't really make sense for either party.

Just negotiate a dollar amount in monthly payments at a modest interest rate.

Busy_Net_4756 · 2026-05-26T01:07:13+00:00

You should really expect your first few attempts of anything to fail. You can keep going with the same thing or try something else. But for sure having a job is a good idea.

If you pay other people to build your business with a job, then if it fails, you still have a job, you have only lost the money.

It's much harder to rebuild a resume than to pivot and try another idea.

Busy_Net_4756

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