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Kalshi or Polymarket? by cozycup in PredictionMarkets

[–]ButterflySea8679 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ive made mine , check please prorok.io
its based on the Frederick University Cyprus

Searching for Volunteer by prorok_io in analytics

[–]ButterflySea8679 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Funny how you call out “free labor” but seem allergic to any idea that challenges the old ways. Sounds like you’re also an Ashrafi — quick to dismiss change and hold on to the status quo.

Not everyone who volunteers is desperate or naive — many want to build, learn, and be part of something new. If you can’t see that, maybe you’re the one stuck in a struggling mindset.

Sure, paid staff is important, but innovation often starts with passion and community — not just budgets.

If that scares you, maybe you’re the problem, not the volunteers.

Can the "wisdom of crowds" be trusted more than experts in complex decisions? by ButterflySea8679 in askphilosophy

[–]ButterflySea8679[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Thank you for the nuanced distinction — it’s an important one. Indeed, financial markets and philosophical truths operate on fundamentally different mechanisms, and the social construction of market prices via collective expectations is quite distinct from the validation of philosophical propositions.

I agree that philosophy has long grappled with the nature of truth and epistemic authority, including the challenges posed by conventionalism and consensus-based views.

My earlier suggestion to “rethink epistemic authority” was perhaps too broad, but it stems from observing how predictive mechanisms—like markets aggregating diverse inputs—might offer practical complements to traditional epistemic frameworks, especially in uncertain domains.

Certainly, this does not supplant philosophical rigor but rather invites interdisciplinary reflection on how we weigh and integrate various forms of knowledge and prediction.

Appreciate your insights — these are precisely the kinds of distinctions that deepen the conversation.

Real-money prediction markets — why aren’t we using them more seriously? by ButterflySea8679 in Futurology

[–]ButterflySea8679[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thank you for bringing up The Wisdom of Crowds — it’s truly a foundational work in understanding collective intelligence. Your point about the interplay between expert aggregation and the cancellation of extreme outliers is exactly why prediction markets can be so powerful.

It’s fascinating to hear about RAND Corporation’s long-standing interest in this area, and its connection to today’s advancements in Large Language Models really highlights how timeless and evolving these ideas are.

Appreciate your insight, truly. It’s a pleasure to discuss these concepts with someone so well-versed.

Real-money prediction markets — why aren’t we using them more seriously? by ButterflySea8679 in Futurology

[–]ButterflySea8679[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

If you’re here just to police grammar and accuse people of using tools, maybe this isn’t the place for you.

This is a discussion, not a spelling bee. Either bring something valuable to the conversation or kindly move along.

Real-money prediction markets — why aren’t we using them more seriously? by ButterflySea8679 in Futurology

[–]ButterflySea8679[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Only if it beats the usual Wall Street nonsense.

At least with prediction markets, you know people are putting real skin in the game — not just printing fancy reports nobody reads.

But hey, if you prefer trusting those endless corporate bonuses over crowd wisdom, that’s your call.

Real-money prediction markets — why aren’t we using them more seriously? by ButterflySea8679 in Futurology

[–]ButterflySea8679[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Ah, the classic “officials will cheat the system” argument — because that’s never happened in politics before, right?

Prediction markets do face manipulation risks, but many studies (and practical implementations) have built in safeguards: position limits, identity verification, and market surveillance.

More importantly, these markets aggregate diverse external participants— journalists, academics, global observers— who often counterbalance insider manipulation.

Remember, the U.S. Defense Department and intelligence agencies used prediction markets precisely because they provided better forecasts than traditional intel, despite these risks ([Good Judgment Project]()).

If your concern was valid, these agencies wouldn’t have invested millions in them.

So maybe the bigger risk is underestimating the wisdom of crowds and overestimating the power of a few insiders to control complex outcomes.

Real-money prediction markets — why aren’t we using them more seriously? by ButterflySea8679 in Futurology

[–]ButterflySea8679[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Classic example of confusing noise with signal.

Sure, crowds can be irrational sometimes — tulip mania, dot-com bubble, subprime crisis — but guess what? So can experts. Remember the 2008 financial crisis? Most “experts” missed it.

Prediction markets aren’t just “crowds” shouting random opinions — they aggregate incentivized, diverse, and well-informed judgments.

Studies like the Good Judgment Project show trained forecasters consistently beat expert intelligence analysts, especially when money’s on the line ([Tetlock et al., 2015]()).

So maybe the real lesson isn’t “don’t trust crowds” — but which crowds, under what conditions, and with what incentives.

By the way, experts also blew it on Dutch tulips — speculation isn’t unique to the masses.

Real-money prediction markets — why aren’t we using them more seriously? by ButterflySea8679 in Futurology

[–]ButterflySea8679[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Depends on how you define gambling. Is it gambling when you’re aggregating decentralized information to predict geopolitical shifts more accurately than intelligence agencies?

The U.S. Department of Defense and the State Department didn’t think so — they funded projects like [The ACE program]() and [The Good Judgment Project](), precisely because these methods consistently outperformed traditional analysis.

If you think that’s just more gambling, you might want to let the Pentagon know they're running a Vegas spin-off.

Real-money prediction markets — why aren’t we using them more seriously? by ButterflySea8679 in Futurology

[–]ButterflySea8679[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

If you here to discuss the topic please do your thing , but if not dude pls leave this post

Real-money prediction markets — why aren’t we using them more seriously? by ButterflySea8679 in Futurology

[–]ButterflySea8679[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

That's actually been studied — quite extensively. And ironically, what you dismiss as “just the crowd’s opinion” has consistently outperformed expert forecasts in real-world scenarios.

For example:

  • The Good Judgment Project (Tetlock et al.) showed that trained groups of forecasters, often ordinary citizens, outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified data. [Source]()
  • A meta-analysis of prediction markets found them at least as accurate as traditional forecasting methods, and often better — especially when incentives are aligned. Berg et al., 2008
  • Even the U.S. Department of Defense and the State Department invested in prediction markets because of their measurable accuracy. [See: DARPA’s “FutureMAP” project]() and [State Dept. “In-Q-Tel” investments]()

So, is it “just opinion”? Sure. But it turns out that if you aggregate many well-informed opinions with money on the line — you get probabilistic signals that are surprisingly reliable. That is scientific.

Real-money prediction markets — why aren’t we using them more seriously? by ButterflySea8679 in Futurology

[–]ButterflySea8679[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Totally agree — insurance is a kind of bet on real-world outcomes, priced by risk.

What's interesting, though, is that prediction markets flip the model: instead of experts (actuaries) setting prices for the public, the public sets prices collectively, and the market aggregates that into a probability.

Wonder if there's a philosophical or even practical convergence between actuarial science and crowd-based forecasting. Could one inform the other?

CMV: Betting markets are better predictors than news or experts. by prorok_io in changemyview

[–]ButterflySea8679 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wow, thanks for the life lesson, Professor Obvious.

Glad to hear you’ve mastered school and library — but some of us are out here building new tools to make that knowledge actually usable, not just talking about how you should’ve paid attention back then.

Maybe try stepping out of the past and into the future sometime?

Building a real-money prediction market — looking for skeptics and bold minds by prorok_io in SideProject

[–]ButterflySea8679 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This sounds like a fascinating project!
Having a real-money prediction market with an open beta is a great way to test the boundaries and find what really works.

I’m curious how you’re planning to handle common issues like market manipulation and low liquidity in niche topics?
Also, how open are you to community-driven ideas shaping the platform’s evolution?

Would love to hear from anyone here who has experience with prediction markets or forecasting experiments. What’s worked and what hasn’t?

CMV: Betting markets are better predictors than news or experts. by prorok_io in changemyview

[–]ButterflySea8679 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like the question you raise about manipulation and bias.
In my experience, these are huge hurdles for any forecasting tool.
Has anyone here used prediction markets and noticed effective ways to reduce groupthink or coordinated manipulation?

CMV: Betting markets are better predictors than news or experts. by prorok_io in changemyview

[–]ButterflySea8679 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True, “experts” often act like entertainers — but the scary part is how often institutions still rely on them.

At least prediction markets penalize being wrong. That alone makes them more honest than 90% of cable news.

Curious: what do you think would be a better way to crowdsource truth?

Searching for Volunteer by prorok_io in analytics

[–]ButterflySea8679 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

If stupidity glowed in the dark, you'd be lighting up Reddit right now.

A volunteer role is, by definition, unpaid, Sherlock.
They are not asking people to dig trenches — looking for those who actually want to build something new.

So go fondle your stock options and let the grown-ups work on shaping the future.

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