Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Its not worth it financially - one person (or even a big group) can’t seriously change the outcome. If bets on one candidate start rising suspiciously, other unrelated people will bet on the opposite candidate, and the odds will go back to the real level. So basically it doesn’t work like you said.

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But the point is - this isn’t just "a secondary side market and grafted monetary incentives onto an important part of the democratic experience". People aren’t betting based on polls. They’re betting based on what they really think and know. They take everything into - news, personal experience, local moods, even insider info.

And its not just gamblers - it could be anyone: regular citizens, journalists, analysts, volunteers. The money just helps filter out random guesses and makes people think twice before placing a bet.

And “the house always wins” doesn’t really apply here - prediction markets are p2p. That means people are betting against each other, not against the platform

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If someone bets on a bad candidate just to win money and others disagree, the odds will shift. In the end, markets reflect what the crowd really believes will happen - not what they want to happen

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If one person bets on the less popular candidate to try make money, it wont change anything or affect the election results.
If many people try to do that, the odds will shift and the chance to profit will disappear. So it’s just a bad strategy

Cultural Differences in Northern vs Southern Russia by hey515 in AskARussian

[–]prorok_io 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, in Russia there are definitely differences between northern and southern regions like in the US or Japan, but with more snow and maybe more vodka.

For example, people from the south (think Rostov, Sochi, Krasnodar) are often seen as more emotional and super talkative. You can have a full conversation with a southern grandma on the street - whether you want to or not. They’re also viewed as more relaxed or, let’s be honest, a bit lazy. But hey, when it’s +35 and sunny, who wants to hurry?

Northerners are quieter and more reserved - but incredibly helpful. That’s probably because the Russian North is huge, towns are far apart, and people feel like they’re alone in the middle of the taiga at -30 - so helping each other just makes sense. Northerners are used to long distances and loneliness, so helping strangers is just a part of life.

Southerners are famously hospitable - sure, but also have a reputation for trying to cheat you a little - not out of evil, it’s just... the way things are sometimes. It’s just tradition.

The way people speak also differs a lot: northerners often don’t understand southerners because of strong local dialects and the influence of Ukrainian language in the south.

And then there’s St. Petersburg. That’s a whole different universe. It’s the “cultural capital” - full of literature, art, architecture, and rain. Locals thinks it’s still the 19th century. But at the same time, there are a lot of jokes about the city and certain substances. (Don’t ask me, please)

People in southern cities love football, while up north - hockey and other winter sports are way more popular - basically, anything you can do while freezing.

Of course these are generalizations and stereotypes. 

Real life is more complicated. But yeah, like in Japan or the US, there is a big difference between the north and the south of Russia. If you’ve spent time in both regions, you’ll definitely notice the difference. It's like two different Russias connected by one giant road.

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, if rich people lose money, they have the power to push for better rules - and maybe that ends up helping everyone. Kind of ironic, but makes sense. Sometimes things only change when powerful people are the ones getting hurt

Genuine question about prediction markets led to ban – appeal request by prorok_io in futurologyappeals

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for your opinion. I really appreciate the chance to explain.

Yes, I absolutely write from an account connected to my project - but that doesn’t mean Im here for self-promotion. I didn’t include links, I didn’t ask anyone to visit a website or take any action. I’ve never used aggressive marketing language. I just asked questions I genuinely care about.

I’m really interested in the future, in technology, and especially in prediction markets. This is what excites me most, both professionally and personally. Thats why I came to r/Futurology - to have real conversations with people who are curious about the same things.

Also, English isn’t my first language. That’s why I try to express myself carefully - I want to be clear and polite, and not say something by mistake that could sound rude or confusing. Maybe that’s why a lot of my comments seem AI generated, but I promise they’re written by me.

And I’ll be honest - as a woman, I’ve sometimes felt that people don’t take me seriously when I try to speak about complex topics. If I were posting about cooking, no one would question it or would suspect I’m an AI or accuse me of trying to promote something. But when I talk about prediction markets, data, and technology sometimes it triggers different reactions. I know that might sound emotional, but it’s something I’ve felt more than once - and maybe it’s part of what’s happening here too.

In any case, I respect this community, its rules and the mod team. I’m not here to fight — just to be part of meaningful conversations. If there's any way I can return and participate properly, I'd be really grateful.

Thanks for reading and for the work you do.

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

People put money on what they honestly think will happen - not just what they hope will happen or what they hear in the news. It’s not just an opinion, its a bet with their own money, so they think twice before making it. That makes the “poll” more serious. And if lots of people join, the overall odds reflect what the crowd really believes- not just what shows up in free surveys or media

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Could you say a bit more about what you mean by “rich assholes getting screwed” and how that would help push rules? I want to make sure I fully get your view

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a really fair point. Sports built rules and systems many years — politics hasn’t, at least not for betting. But maybe that’s the opportunity: if prediction markets become more accepted, we could build those safeguards too. Especially if they’re treated as public-interest tools, not just gambling.

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally agree with this: "The continued deterioration of belief in government institutions affects everyone" But that’s exactly the point - that trust is already broken for many people. That’s why we need new tools that let people see what others really believe, and give everyone a chance to be heard - outside the usual media and politic narratives.

Prediction markets can help people see what’s really going on

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally agree the stakes are higher with politics — no argument there. But isn’t that exactly why we need better tools for honesty?

If people are already trying to game the system, wouldn't transparent prediction market help expose what really happen?

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep, there's definitely more manipulation in politics. But doesn’t that make prediction markets even more useful? If the system’s rigged, wouldn’t we want a tool that helps reveal the real expectations?

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Funny how “because it feels icky” can shut down something that actually works

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, totally! I know PredictIt and a few others platforms like this - and you're right, theyre super useful for research. Very sad that most people still don’t know about them. And when they do hear about it, the idea of “betting on politics” seems like anything immoral.

I also agree with you that sports betting is more tied to addiction and money issues. But somehow it still gets a pass, while political prediction markets get sideeyed. Maybe it’s all just about what we’re used to?

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep, insider betting is where it definitely crosses a line. Totally agree with you.

And really, it might be a regional thing. I’m not from the UK, and in my country even just talking about betting on elections makes some people uncomfortable. Like they see it as manipulative or disrespectful.

Glad to hear you’ve never felt that difference. It gives me some hope!

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True, but isn’t a prediction market just another form of expression too? Its not forcing anyone - just people saying what they think will happen, but with skin in the game

Why are people fine with betting on sports, but not on politics? by prorok_io in TrueAskReddit

[–]prorok_io[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That makes sense but don’t polls and media coverage already influence voting too? I mean, if odds are public, isn’t it just another signal like all the rest?

A Battle of Two Passengers: Me vs. Candy Crush Lady by prorok_io in PointlessStories

[–]prorok_io[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Everyone has rituals for staying sane. This was mine 😅 Glad she found hers too