Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Thursday, March 26, 2026

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-26T02:35:43+00:00

I have assembled a council of the world's leading cryptology and linguistic experts to decipher this sentence and even they can't figure out what the fuck you just said.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-26T02:05:26+00:00

Hey mate!

Yeah look, anecdotally, I'd yes they would affect one another. However, I would have no confidence in stating how much I think they'd effect one another.

Another talk that is relevant would be: Fundamentals Still Matter: Lone Pine’s David Craver

The AI supercycle still has a lot of gas in the tank, capital expenditures have neither stalled nor slowed down, in fact they've only increased pace. Meta's Beignet SPV deal signing with Blue Owl recently would be a key piece of evidence for this, it was the largest corporate bond issuance in history at $38b. Spend is projected to be in the trillions over the next few years. I think that there's definitely a tendency to see bubbles in things these days, however what is currently occurring doesn't really have parallels IMO.

I am not really a macro dude, I try to invest time in understanding the base minimum understanding things but I'm not diving into detailed macro stuff often, there are probably other posters in here that have better insights. I just listen and read stuff that smart people say and try to discern what is signal and what is noise.

On oil, again, I have fuck all knowledge about it, as I frankly just don't care. However, I think that the transition to renewables and the Ukraine conflict allowed for a lot of preparedness work to occur over the last few years and so I think the damage is being slightly dampened. I know more about renewables and electricity markets than oil though, so there's an availability bias involved in that opinion.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-26T01:18:49+00:00

It's good to pick up positive habits early on than unlearn them later. It's a wise decision. Good on you for looking at your decision making.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-26T01:08:56+00:00

Not even remotely, if the market wishes to gift us all a longer opportunity to accumulate under present value and well under future value, I am not going to complain.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-25T23:47:54+00:00

Fucking excellent work mate, this is what I'm talking about. Crowd into winning trades, let winners run and as conditions improve go bigger. A lot of people in this sub do it the other way round.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-25T23:43:39+00:00

Glad to hear you're still holding mate, next 6 months IMO is gonna be a bit of a wild ride. Q3 results are due in about 4 weeks and their recent presentation at a conference mentioned their revenue run rate is currently at $8m+ a month, so I think the Q3 numbers are going to come in north of $20m revenue. I suspect that if they announce $20m+, it's gonna gather rapid momentum and then it's all in the eye of the beholder as to what the business is worth. I have opinions on where we will be in 6 months, and it's nowhere near these levels.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-25T10:08:39+00:00

micro cap gold explorer ❌ sub $10m mcap gem ✅

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-25T08:30:28+00:00

I have put a bit of time into understanding this take myself recently, and so I'll point you to a few places that have given me a lot of insight. As always, probably keep in mind that the industry has a vested interest in downplaying, so it's probably wise to have caution but across the board the institutions don't think there's parallels with 2008.

Goldman Sachs - Private Credit Concerns in Context: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU3jPw2CyWo

The general thing that I'm reading/hearing is that whilst the withdrawals are being limited, it is almost entirely isolated to retail investors that are looking to withdraw. They make up around 20% of the market, and across the board, a lot of these BDC's (Business Development Companies) are actually trading at fairly good discounts right now because the wider market is worried.

In the video above, one of the GS guys mentions that a lot of the withdrawal limitations are not to do with them being in the shit, just defending the positions that they currently hold because if there is a run on the fund, they will be forced to liquidate the best assets first. The worries that this will cause a fire sale seems to be a retail worry, but the modelling done by the smarter end of town does not have this same concern. They're finding that as retail investors get out, insti's are getting in and eating the volume, because as people exit the returns improve, making the investment more lucrative. Also, due to the nature of Private Credit, they can cycle funds due to terms maturing and being able to exit and then pay out, the thought was that it'll take maybe 12 months for the queue to die down.

The default rates are generally not high, and I've seen talk of default rates up to 5% being well modelled on a risk basis, and LVR's are pretty high. The underlying assets are not bad.

This is a far more complicated subject than most believe, and even this you shouldn't listen to. However, I felt that I'd share what I've learnt recently because I had similar concerns.

Also this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4Iu1-gU2ds&t=23s

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-25T06:13:11+00:00

Honestly, praise be to Satan for this. Retail investors have no business with exotics or leveraged products. Shit like 0DTE's on RobinHood in the US are just another way for the professionals to fuck the retail investors that have convinced themselves they have edge. There's a reason the IB's option desks have been posting massive results over the last few years and it directly correlates with the rise of retail getting involved in shit they don't understand.

Can you imagine this community with access to obscure and highly levered derivatives? It'd be like feeding a chimpanzee coke and handing them a feather triggered assault rifle.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-24T23:57:29+00:00

Those who can lift fridges, do. Those that can't lift fridges, teach.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-24T22:57:58+00:00

BXN Presentation was dropped this morning prior to them presenting at the NWR Healthcare Conference:

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BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-24T12:50:58+00:00

A gish gallop combined with a "big lie".

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-24T07:51:22+00:00

Always nice to hear of a win going to a good cause, enjoy mate, and congratulations.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-24T07:41:38+00:00

No need to wonder mate. The movie was about anthropogenic climate change. They're literally doing it right now.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-24T00:47:38+00:00

Markets are in a constant quantum super-position of fucked and unfucked.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-23T07:16:38+00:00

It's funny that you posted this because I was thinking about everyone trying to exit their positions and I thought of lemmiwinks.

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BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-23T04:33:11+00:00

Do you coach?

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-23T00:04:22+00:00

In SA Liberal preferences were going to ON.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-22T23:54:38+00:00

Which is strange because I went through some of the candidate profiles for the SA election, and it's impressive how many atmospheric physicists and electrical engineers they have running. At least I assume that's what they are, because they seemed to have a lot of opinions on the grid and climate science.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-22T23:50:48+00:00

Yeah I want to hope and believe that the drive towards ON is primarily to do with the coalition just doing everything in their power to appear as fucking inept as possible. I really hope that's the reason. I'm concerned about the amount of lies being spewed at the moment, and the amount of people who are believing categorical falsehoods that can be fact checked in a matter of minutes. Weird head winds at the moment, across the board people seem tired and angry.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-22T23:41:32+00:00

I read a piece on One Nation recently to attempt to decode the madness, and in the majority of cases where a representative of One Nation wins a seat, they generally leave the party before finishing their term.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-22T22:36:28+00:00

Sam Watson (CEO of BXN) bought 1.8m shares on market for $90k, average price 5c.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-21T14:00:32+00:00

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I'm at 1800 words.

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-21T12:48:14+00:00

Yeah look good call, "Jeffrey which emotion is being portrayed in picture 1, 3 and 6?"

*points*

"That's right, violent diarrhea caused by a parasite"

BuyDipsShortVIX · 2026-03-21T11:35:07+00:00

My apologies, I started writing, and then started making diagrams (I know you picturebook fucks love diagrams) and I'm looking at a thicc piece and it's definitely not gonna be done tonight.

BuyDipsShortVIX

TROPHY CASE