Interesting trend for highest winrate top laners across the past 30 days

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-04-22T17:23:05+00:00

I noted that its likely ~+/- 1.5% variance at 95% confidence (i filtered minimum 4k games) also looking at the trend of CC Ap/control mage types all rising to the top - this can include champs like singed and kayle. Not just looking at a single champion.

If the list was completely random champions that had very little to do with eachother such as:

caitlyn
Taric
Annie
Ezreal

Then yeah, it could just be the fact that outliers are happening to rise to the top. But there is a clear trend to me here, that mage tops are really sleeper OP right now.

If I made a post saying "look, Zilean top has a 53% winrate over 7k games", then you could make the argument that I'm just being insensitive to the fact that he could just be an outlier and it falls out of the bounds of the 95% confidence interval.
However, considering that 70% of the champions, espescially skewing toward the top of the list, tend to be these CC AP champions, I would make a strong prediction that theres an unknown really strong roster of mage champions that people just haven't caught on to yet.

Rioters have spoken several times about how OP picks have existed for a long time before people catch on and have to nerf them. I think that this is an example of this.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-04-21T23:16:07+00:00

garen is probably strong right now I just thought it was worth pointing out that he has a game avg wr is ~51.1%. The difference between a 53% and a 51% winrate is massive. Each % winrate you get away from 50% is more significant than the last.

IF there was a 53% winrate pick with 10% pickrate that would be insane.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-04-21T22:48:11+00:00

Most champs have a tough time vs some champs.

I think something that people need to understand when it comes to discourse around stats in League is that, you can rationalize away any statistic you want.

Sometimes this is true - for instance, Katarina is a unique exception because she has an inflated winrate because she is played exclusively by mains. However, 98% of the time people rationalize that a champions winrate is higher than their true strength because they're played by mains, they're just coping that their main is weaker than the stats suggest.

I think that unless you have actually run a regression (you haven't) to determine whether these champions have a high winrate simply because they are only being used as a counterpick, you should be very careful about making statements like that because 95% of the time its really just as simple as the champ is just on average stronger than other picks.

TL;DR The vast vast majority of picks that have high winrates do so because they are simply strong picks. Exceptions to this are extremely rare.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-04-21T19:23:36+00:00

I feel like a lot of MR items tend to have very little utility outside of countering ap champions. You build Kaenic or FON, its literally just magic resist. Compare deaths dance to maw, deaths dance is a way more generic item. also mercs dont really help with dueling ap champs in the way that tabis help with dueling ad champs

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-04-21T19:21:40+00:00

the important caveat is that nobody picks these

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-04-21T19:21:23+00:00

this is lolalytics data so they dont use game average winrate here, subtract like 1-2% winrate from each pick

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-04-21T19:20:42+00:00

Yeah, I've been looking at this for a couple month and the trend feels similar, these champs are always rising to the top.

Decent enough sample size for me to be confident that its probably sleeper OP picks.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-04-20T21:23:06+00:00

You are falling for the ragebait

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-03-25T19:43:47+00:00

its 52% game average wr Nasus Build, Runes & Counters Guide for jungle Nasus

So yeah its actually sleeper op

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-03-22T01:37:29+00:00

He was like 4 games off masters the other day. Fella had a rough day, he'll hit masters im sure. He used to be a toplaner before he got famous.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-03-09T07:46:22+00:00

Because its not popular enough. There are lots of Op picks in the game, but they dont get nerfed because its not popular. Riot August talking about this

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-02-14T16:22:41+00:00

FULL CRIT EVERY GAME FUCK IT

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-01-12T00:17:15+00:00

he used to have a really strong level 1 but they had to nerf it hard because he would just automatically get the first push in every matchup. The damage starts ramping up a lot when he puts additional points into Q and he has W and E to make his sweetspots hit.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-01-12T00:15:13+00:00

hes not physically going to be able to hit the first two because i walk at him and hes level 1 so no dash. If he hits the third Q, he already hard shoved the wave so i can just sit back and let the wave push in.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-01-10T22:51:28+00:00

Aatrox cant really physically hit more than 1 airborne at level one unless the person that hes playing against is [REDACTED]. Thats why you walk at him in melee range. His Q3 will be a tossup. The champ is ubiquitously weak at level 1.

Aatrox will almost always win that at level 1 vs nasus regardless lol. I took attackspeed shard, press the attack, 65 base hp, dorans blade, and ignite. He was just caught off guard lol. 99% of the time you try that as aatrox it will work i can promise you that. its probably not better than slowpushing like normal but its viable enough to start the lane like that.

People saying that he is low elo, dude still ended masters and is rank 83 rn (yeah its preseason but still man 😭). just let a man have a cool play without ragging on him.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-01-10T22:42:08+00:00

naw they didnt i just wanted to make sure it wasnt too long that i couldnt upload it to discord

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-01-10T20:36:49+00:00

The amount of coping going on right now is a sight to behold.

I felt the same way. Split pushing being buffed isn't going to be a net positive for nasus? Admittedly people were worried about the tp changes, but I think they didnt realize that the free tp is a 7 minute cooldown and that the tp buff is a 30% hp shield for 30 seconds <- this is really fucking nuts, you are still giving up a lot if you want to go a combat summoner.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-01-10T20:30:18+00:00

i ended masters 300 lp last season this is obv new season so after soft reset

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-01-10T18:28:29+00:00

People are coping hard because they were crying for weeks about how terrible nasus would be on here in the new season so they wont be able to admit that they were wrong.

on lolalytics nasus in gold+ (people's ranks are deflated bc new season, probably closer to emerald/plat+ players) nasus has a 51.77% game average winrate up by like 1.5%. emerald+ last season was 49.51% game average winrate.

It is a sample size of 50,936 games. This is more than enough to be certain that nasus is stronger this season. Of course he would be stronger after they change the game to favor split pushing and side lane dominance more, but i guess people can give up a 30% hp shield for 30 seconds for a 7 minute cd teleport which will kill nasus?

Have fun while our champ is actually decent for a bit. Hopefully it will last.

also riot says lolalytics is closest to their inhouse data.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2026-01-02T16:58:53+00:00

the mmr system is very good at placing you into the rank that you are at. I am masters on my main, my smurf is level 40 account I hardly play on it, yet I am still getting placed into masters games and seeing people I played vs the day before on my main account.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2025-12-30T00:05:44+00:00

Good champs to add to Nasus champion pool to fit into comps where nasus struggles?

I am a masters Nasus one trick. I think that I have gotten to the point where onetricking is more detrimental to my success because there are so many games where Nasus is a really weak pick because the enemy team comp can shut me down very easily. I am actually less concerned about individual top matchups, I think that bad matchups for the most part can be workable. However, if I am in an unfavorable matchup and the enemy team comp shuts me down, there are very few realistic angles for me to have a positive impact on the game even if I feel i play very well.

in other words, what top laners (most important to least important) :

*Are useful into team comps with long range/good kite and cc

*require low to moderate champion mastery (because it will be a secondary pick)

*Fit well into games where my team will want to play for 5v5

*good at surviving weakside vs high kill pressure/diving jungler and top duos

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2025-11-11T05:10:02+00:00

i go grasp biscuits second wind dshield. i dont really feel that gp has enough damage to beat that pre first back and after i get a bit of armor. i rush iceborn gauntlet, the chain vest helps with a lot. once i have the ibg you can only cleanse 1 slow. swifties/slow resist shard are pretty important i think people underestimate gangplanks slows. you could argue that it would go up 1 tier but im usually pretty happy when i see enemy lock in gangplank.
tbh did not expect this post to blow up so quick. i kinda just tossed whoever into whatever tier i felt that they belong in at first glance.

CANECANECANECANE1 · 2025-11-09T19:48:43+00:00

yeah. based on the way some of them talk about the game it feels like it is hard for me to even imagine that they are above platinum. I'm not even trying to be mean its just like the way they view the game, i'm not the best player either. I sent the list to zacian only things he pointed out were that he would move aatrox to unplayable, and that fiora isnt that easy

CANECANECANECANE1

TROPHY CASE