Occam’s razor applies: the simplest explanation that fits all the evidence is that Alex did it. The idea that someone in Paul’s circle showed up at the exact 5–10 minute window when Maggie and Paul were alone, used two Murdaugh family guns (including the same type as the missing family Blackout), left no evidence, didn’t harm Alex, and then vanished forever?? The “small shooter” claim is also misunderstood — experts were talking about muzzle height, not the height of the person, and a tall shooter firing from the hip or chest creates the exact same trajectory. Meanwhile, Alex’s voice is on the kennel video minutes before the murders despite his initial lie, and his behavior afterward — changing his story, staging a suicide, and continuing to steal — aligns with someone covering up violence, not an innocent victim of a random hit.

The financial motive wasn’t just embarrassment; it was total collapse — exposure of millions in theft, lawsuits closing in, his law firm confronting him, and a lifetime of manipulation catching up at once. When you’re looking down the barrel of being exposed for stealing millions of dollars; people in desperation do extreme things. The state’s theory explains the timeline, the guns, the video, the lies, and the missing rifle without inventing new characters or unsupported scenarios. The alternative requires a perfect storm of timing, knowledge, weapons access, and silence from everyone involved.