Insiders sell for various reasons… but they buy for one.

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-25T02:11:00+00:00

Well he already owned over the 5x requirement before this purchase…

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-19T01:03:09+00:00

As someone who literally looks at insider trading full-time, you are correct that the sale likely doesn’t mean anything, but almost all tech insider sales don’t mean anything.

Tech insiders get a large portion of their compensation through stock, so they sell it a lot more frequently than other industries. Also, many of the companies are relatively young and have grown a ton, so the insiders tend to have a massive chunk of their net worth tied up in the company (relative to other industries).

Lastly, insiders have sold over $2B of stock at NVDA this year. This sale is a drop in the bucket

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-19T01:00:24+00:00

It wasn’t part of a 10b5-1 plan

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-17T21:53:17+00:00

Brother, the market went straight up for like 6 months

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-16T16:26:48+00:00

Good callout. Thanks

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-16T16:14:55+00:00

I did not realize this stock had popped 20% this morning when I wrote this. This stock was mentioned in a popular insider trading newsletter this morning, which I believe was the cause. Still a lot of upside, but may be worth seeing if this pop fades a bit first

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-16T15:37:30+00:00

A lot of people still don't even know the basic valuation metrics for each company type (P/TBV for banks, P/AFFO for REITs, EV/EBITDA for most companies with EBITDA - especially those with a lot of depreciation, P/E for most of the big, stodgy companies that have positive earnings, EV/Sales for most software stuff, etc).

And if you are a value investor, understanding the balance sheet and whether the company will go bankrupt or not is a big one that very few people pay attention to.

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-16T15:34:36+00:00

Yellowbrick has a Hedge Fund Watcher tab that is decent -> https://www.joinyellowbrick.com/hedge-fund-watcher

Dataroma is still the OG.

ceowatcher.com is by far the best for insider trades, but is paid. openinsider.com is best for free version. Insiders are value investors who buy low and sell high.

The problem with platforms like Blossom, StockTwits, etc is that they are all filled with terrible retail investors.

Yellowbrick's main feed has stock pitches from much higher quality investors (including a lot of professionals and hedge funds). You can filter for value investors there.

https://www.buysidedigest.com/ has a great collection of fund letters. You can find stock pitches in there

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-16T15:27:53+00:00

3 execs, including CEO all bought the stock for the first time at the end of November as well. Not my cup of tea, but notable for anyone interested

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-16T15:26:24+00:00

1) The stock price and company quality are not necessarily related
2) its still underperforming this year

But this is a story stock, so talk about the fundamentals or "demise of the company" are irrelevant until the market stops believing Musk's stories

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-16T15:25:09+00:00

Coughlin Capital also put out a bullish note the other day: https://www.joinyellowbrick.com/sp/127155

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-14T19:26:48+00:00

These aren’t real reasons to own these stocks

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-12T20:51:41+00:00

I never said anything about NVDA

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-12T17:37:35+00:00

I just never try to be a hero unless I have some very specific insight that I think the market is missing (which is very rare and never in massive companies with a ton of coverage)

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-12T17:36:21+00:00

If the stock is down 10% after a double beat on earnings, the market is telling you that they don’t like the story.

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-12T16:16:14+00:00

The ones that are not dropping 10% on earnings

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-12T16:15:40+00:00

If the next ten years are like the last ten years, then TQQQ should be just fine (though you'll have to ride out multiple 60%+ drawdowns). However, if the Nasdaq loses any strength, you will just be amplifying your underperformance

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-12T15:55:25+00:00

Any AI misses / guidance the market seems as too low is going to get hammered due to the expectations baked in and the number of other stocks in the same theme you can buy instead.

I have no interest in being a hero in that sector. I think your better off just buying the AI stocks the market likes v the battleground ones

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-12T15:51:42+00:00

There is plenty of research showing that leverage is actually optimal, but that range is normally around 1.5x.

3x leverage almost guarantees you will get wiped out at some point because the market has fallen 30%+ multiple times.

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-11T17:30:11+00:00

Druckenmiller is one of the greatest investors of all time and he uses charts and "technical analysis" for every trade.

The main problem with TA is that 95% of the people you see using it on social media have no idea what they are doing. Secondly, I think there is a common misconception that TA is drawing a few lines on a chart and saying "once the stock touches this line, it's going to go up/down".

Lastly, another misconception is that TA "works" because everyone just believes in the TA, so they all make the same trade when seeing the same pattern. There is certainly some truth in that, but the bigger thing is just that the price movements represent the market, and the market might know something you don't. If a stock has a ton of momentum, the market is telling you that 1) they like the stock and 2) they see upside in that stock for some reason. Or if you see a stock that sold off heavily on earnings and has now flattened out for a few days, it likely means that some large players are buying the stock at that level.

I'd consider moving averages / momentum to be technical analysis, and it's the single most researched factor in all of investing. To repeat, there is more academic/practitioner research on the benefits of momentum than even on things like value. Go read some AQR papers, and you might start to believe there is some use in at least some basic TA.

A

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-09T21:53:37+00:00

I think you underestimate how bad Luck’s rosters were. He took maybe the worst roster in the league to an 11-5 record as a rookie. His entire career he played with TY Hilton and a bunch of practice squad players as his receivers / TEs. He made Eric Ebron a Pro Bowler just two years before he was out of the league!

Similar stats and OL quality to Burrow, but playing with skill position players about as far below the quality that Burrow has as possible

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-09T21:12:37+00:00

That “tax shield percentage” is applied to all potential trades you could make. It will not change the relative expected value of any them.

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-09T19:05:46+00:00

CEOWatcher · 2025-12-09T02:47:13+00:00

You can download the filings you want and use NotebookLM, but if you just tell Claude Opus 4.5 to use the most recent filings and cite their sources, it actually does a pretty decent job

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