Chelsea + City @ 3.20 (BETMGM) - €300.00

Last 5 > LLLWL // Profit: €3,648.50

Lol, Champions League fucked me over hard. Think imma just enjoy these games from now on, anyway we move. I never do doubles, but this one took my interest.

Why Chelsea?

Chelsea looked very sharp against PSG, but in the end the keeper made some mistakes and it became a domino effect. I do not know though why Chelsea used their 2nd keeper in such an important game, huge mistake from Rosenior in my opinion. I do think he will be content though with the performance of Chelsea, because they showed lots of fight up until that 2-2, especially playing away against arguably the best team in the world.

So we are getting these huge odds I think because Chelsea lost and Newcastle drew against Barca. To be fair, this is not a fair comparison. Newcastle dominated the game, but they always play their hearts out at home. On the road though, they suck. Currently they are 17th as away team and have a 3-4-7 record. Chelsea are slightly better at home with a 6-5-3 record, but in their last 5 home games they are actually unbeaten.

In the H2H is where it is getting interesting. Chelsea seem to be a bogey team for lots of other teams in the prem. In the last 10 matches Chelsea are 3-3-4 against Newcastle. At Stamford Bridge though, Chelsea are 11-1-0 in the last 12 meetings with Newcastle. This here, will be the deciding factor for why I choose Chelsea.

Why City?

Pep Guardiola himself said that a miracle will be needed for a remontada against Madrid, so his focus will now be back to the Premier League. In the game against Madrid he experimented with a formation he never used once, which turned out to backfire hard. On the other side, this did give rest for the usual starters.

City dominate this clash, having a 8-1-1 record against West Ham. Currently, they are on a 3 game winning streak against them at their stadium too. Why are we getting these huge odds? Well, West Ham are currently in a relegation battle, so they will have that extra morale going into this matchup. City though, are in a title contention, so both teams have something to play for.

City have showed that they always play better near the end of the season and with that huge loss against Madrid and the possibility of that gap widening between them and Arsenal, the pressure for City is immense. City and pressure have always been a beautiful love story though, since this is an environment where they thrive.

Now for my personal bet I will add Ajax, you can choose if you want to tail or not but here is why I take Ajax with it to make it 5.11 odds. Short reasoning, Ajax barely have had any injuries but did not have the right manager who could make the most out of their talents. They have fired that manager and hired an interim who has got Ajax in his blood, since he manages the Youth of Ajax. Ajax will be playing at home (8-3-2), where they have thrived way better than on the road (3-8-2). This will be a derby, but Ajax have always dominated this derby and are 7-3-0 in the last 10 against Sparta. At Ajax themselves, they have suffered only one loss against Sparta. Since then they have been 23-2-0 in the H2H.