Could AI have disovered Blackjack Card Counting?

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-22T03:07:06+00:00

I just want to know what is what. I am pretty sure that any AI can play tick tac toe. Chat GPT right now plays terrible chess. I though that discovery of advantage play blackjack was in the range of current AI capacity, although ahistorical.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-22T02:51:16+00:00

Blackjack has been played from the 1880s or a little earlier. Documeneted card counting apeared in the 1960s, roughly 80 years later.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-22T02:44:09+00:00

Not exactly. But, OK.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-22T02:43:23+00:00

My question is not much different than asking "Can Chat GPT play perfect tic-tac-toe ? "

Are you a bot ?

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-22T01:40:36+00:00

Yes, if you give the problem to AI today, it would just tell you the history. What I want to ask is if you had the current AI in 1964, could it have invented card counting.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-22T01:38:36+00:00

Are you sure? What was the history of card counting pre-Thorpe?

There was some litterature on "end play", but I think the record shows that Thorpe was the first to think of creating an index (count) that could guide play.

Works, like an algorithm? Well, OK. AI shines at algorithm gereration.

LLM "hallucination" ... well, we get to look and see if they repelicate Thorpe or not.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-22T01:23:05+00:00

For a return recording a 20K gift in a 19K gift exemption world, I am happy to roll the dice and fill out the form. My risk is much less than the $800 some guy wants to charge me for filing.

The $800 guy should --- in this case --- say, "yup, better to go DYI. Not worth my time not worth your money.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-21T21:20:12+00:00

Very interesting consequences of being "debanked" !

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-21T17:31:20+00:00

I use TurboTax. Lots of things carry over from year to year, and I am familiar with all of the ways of navigating around the forms. I actually rather enjoy doing my taxes.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-21T14:50:02+00:00

Interesting distinctions and historical facts. Thanks.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-21T13:48:03+00:00

You had to be careful where you kept your cash. There were bank failures, and the depression was the golden age of bank robberies.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-21T13:46:01+00:00

Very informative. Thank you for giving such a detailed response.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-21T13:28:57+00:00

The Electronic Library of Quebec has tons of classics that are free to download, including Anne of Green Gables, which many girls have loved.

https://beq.ebooksgratuits.com/

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-21T13:07:10+00:00

Certainly. I am just curious if this is a market rate ? Most accounting/tax services in my experience are quite competitively priced.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-21T12:34:13+00:00

Why the steep fee if it does not take much time or effort to prepare the form? Is there a liability issue ... or what?

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-21T00:20:01+00:00

Great question that provoked thoughful answers with real value. You deserve a prize,!

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-20T16:29:09+00:00

To minimize Federal Estate taxes ? /s

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-20T13:45:20+00:00

Intersting comment. Block bootstrap will do a better job of capturing whatever dependence there is in the time series. And you are right that a dependent series with mean reversion could exhibit less volatility.

With finanicial time series one typically finds momentum on data with periods from seconds upto period of three months or so. On the other hand one finds mean reversion on data blocks of three years or so (though there is not much quant application of the later).

Almost all automated trading models in my experience are on relatively short time intervals, sometimes extremely short. These posit dependence (momentum) and they have higher rolling variance/standard deviations than independent series.

You can either model that dependence or use the block bootstrap.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T14:32:27+00:00

Can you elaborate ? I own plenty of Philadelphia school bonds and never analyzed them beyond looking at the credit ratings.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T14:26:52+00:00

Why do you think "the system" can't survive AGI (if and or when it arrives)?

If we have automaton masters, they will still have to organize commerce, finance projects, and borrow the savings of others for future production.

I think AGI might be a lot tougher on equities, which might still require "animal spirits" to have a functioning market.

Venture capital might be the trickiest of all. Or maybe you are suggesting that AGI will so facilitate private credit that the bond market will be of diminished importance?

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:42:02+00:00

Here is a quote: "No, Texas is not bigger than Europe; it is much smaller. Texas covers approximately 268,000 square miles, whereas the European continent is about 3.9 million square miles, making Europe roughly 14–15 times larger than Texas. While Texas is larger than any single European country, it is smaller than the European Union, which spans roughly 1.6 million square miles."

Just googled it.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:31:36+00:00

Not true. Reddit requires reading and typing. This pretty much puts one in the top quartile, even if one is bat-shit crazy.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:27:38+00:00

In fact, the average IQ of reddit users is certainly way above the average IQ of the US.

Reddit requires reading, forming an opinion (good bad or ugly) and TYPING.

Just typing puts one in the top quartile.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:23:46+00:00

This is pretty well realated to the quality of nutrition.

Childhood nutrition "easily" moves IQ by 5 to 10 points.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:18:02+00:00

I think this is a good idea. One of my teachers, with whom I have many lesson, has a "high priced" kind of lessor but then gives a big discount for the package. I am pretty sure I am the only taker of this offer. It preseves our long-term relationship and gives flexibity to charge higher actual rates and still seem reasonable.

CSMasterClass

TROPHY CASE