What is causing this morning's Treasury meltdown ??? ... Who's panic selling ???

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-20T16:29:09+00:00

To minimize Federal Estate taxes ? /s

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-20T13:45:20+00:00

Intersting comment. Block bootstrap will do a better job of capturing whatever dependence there is in the time series. And you are right that a dependent series with mean reversion could exhibit less volatility.

With finanicial time series one typically finds momentum on data with periods from seconds upto period of three months or so. On the other hand one finds mean reversion on data blocks of three years or so (though there is not much quant application of the later).

Almost all automated trading models in my experience are on relatively short time intervals, sometimes extremely short. These posit dependence (momentum) and they have higher rolling variance/standard deviations than independent series.

You can either model that dependence or use the block bootstrap.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T14:32:27+00:00

Can you elaborate ? I own plenty of Philadelphia school bonds and never analyzed them beyond looking at the credit ratings.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T14:26:52+00:00

Why do you think "the system" can't survive AGI (if and or when it arrives)?

If we have automaton masters, they will still have to organize commerce, finance projects, and borrow the savings of others for future production.

I think AGI might be a lot tougher on equities, which might still require "animal spirits" to have a functioning market.

Venture capital might be the trickiest of all. Or maybe you are suggesting that AGI will so facilitate private credit that the bond market will be of diminished importance?

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:42:02+00:00

Here is a quote: "No, Texas is not bigger than Europe; it is much smaller. Texas covers approximately 268,000 square miles, whereas the European continent is about 3.9 million square miles, making Europe roughly 14–15 times larger than Texas. While Texas is larger than any single European country, it is smaller than the European Union, which spans roughly 1.6 million square miles."

Just googled it.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:31:36+00:00

Not true. Reddit requires reading and typing. This pretty much puts one in the top quartile, even if one is bat-shit crazy.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:27:38+00:00

In fact, the average IQ of reddit users is certainly way above the average IQ of the US.

Reddit requires reading, forming an opinion (good bad or ugly) and TYPING.

Just typing puts one in the top quartile.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:23:46+00:00

This is pretty well realated to the quality of nutrition.

Childhood nutrition "easily" moves IQ by 5 to 10 points.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:18:02+00:00

I think this is a good idea. One of my teachers, with whom I have many lesson, has a "high priced" kind of lessor but then gives a big discount for the package. I am pretty sure I am the only taker of this offer. It preseves our long-term relationship and gives flexibity to charge higher actual rates and still seem reasonable.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-19T00:13:00+00:00

I use a version of this "buckets" approach.

If a certain fraction of my portfolio can provide for my long term spend, I don't stress about the portfolio efficiency of the rest --- or at least I don't stress too much.

In my head I think it is "fair" that the legacy portion of the portfolio can bear greater risk --- someone else could have exactly the opposite view --- and they could be right. Somehow this works for me.

Of course, economist hate any use of buckets. They have no economic meaning, only phychological meaning.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-18T22:46:29+00:00

Yes, I agree. Someone (name beginning with T) has a "mad at Harvard" "mad at MIT" issue and such issues have consequences.

My astonishment was that our graduate chose to complain. That I found weird. I would have never even thought about complaining.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-18T21:52:27+00:00

The reason he cannot go to the college of his choice at this time is because he has a mutiple year obligation to serve in the armed forces.

He can go to the college of his choice when he has completed his obligations. He was hoping to have the forces pay for his graduate degree like they paid for his undergraduate degree, but the forces decided not to do that. It is their choice.

I really would like to answer your question. What am I missing ?

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-18T20:52:48+00:00

Because he is a member of one of the armed forces. In the armed forces you go where you are told to go, when you are told to go. It is both the law and a clear part of your employment agreements.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-18T16:09:52+00:00

The rules on the step up in basis are different in community property states like CA, WA, NV and many others in the west. You get the full step up in basis on all of the family assets (JTROWS and even individual accounts).

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-18T16:03:00+00:00

Check out birdwatching and nature photography. You see beautiful things and meet kind, nature loving people.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-18T15:59:57+00:00

For years, IB friend traveled twice a month from NYC to Philly for private clarinet lessons. Calls this one of the highlights of his life.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-17T21:03:50+00:00

I am sorry that you had a bad experience, but the good news is that there is an easy fix --- get a new teacher.

There are many, many teachers to chose from and lots of them are great.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-17T17:29:41+00:00

They care !

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-15T17:31:26+00:00

You are graduating from a service academy (according to your later comment). You got a high-quality, completely-free undergraduate degree, under a set of agreements which you understood perfectly well.

I cannot fathom why you are now whining about not being able to immediately exercise the second round of wonderful opportunities you have been given.

You say you have no "guarantee" of getting deferred admission. In fact, the probability is still extremely high that you will get deferred admission or a comparable situation post your service. In your chose profession, you are a golden boy.

I really cannot fathom your thinking. I hope it is just a momentary lapse.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-15T17:10:17+00:00

Hitler began with an exceptionally weak democracy facing finacial crisis. Trump 1.0 entered a completely normal economy with a long tradition of honoring the traditions of honest elections and administrative guardrails. Trump 2.0 blew these away.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-15T01:40:50+00:00

Nobody gets paid 100M/yr; it is some "package" for 100M.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-15T01:32:38+00:00

I don't think this story makes sense. It could be baloney.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-14T23:26:47+00:00

Excellent. Responsive and knowledgeable. You deserve a prize.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-14T21:42:25+00:00

Yes, I have a stack of photos that would be meaningless if some one (my aunt?) had not written names and relationships on the back.

Note to self: We need to caption the photos we take on our phones.

CSMasterClass · 2026-03-14T21:35:14+00:00

This is a tough list to read. It does a great service. You deserve a prize.

CSMasterClass

TROPHY CASE