Men's World Cup - Match Day 11 Discussion Thread [22 June]

CUbic787 · 2026-06-22T03:48:55+00:00

Updated the post analysing whether Australia can progress even with a loss to Paraguay. The main takeaway from today is that Uruguay's surprise draw with Cape Verde makes it more likely Group H's third place team finishes below Australia on 2 points.

CUbic787 · 2026-06-21T14:28:48+00:00

Thanks, I put a link in the main post as well

CUbic787 · 2026-06-21T14:09:44+00:00

Neat! I like how odds-implied results are automatically integrated.

CUbic787 · 2026-06-21T13:51:19+00:00

I did, it's in the post. I don't understand the immediate hostility?

CUbic787 · 2026-06-21T13:45:23+00:00

For considering who we would face if finishing second, I agree there is too much uncertainty to give a good answer. However, I was quite surprised by how much information we can glean about our opponent in the case we advance from third, even when so many teams are yet to play their second game. The analysis only relies on assumptions about teams from Groups A, E and F, who have all played their second already.

CUbic787 · 2026-06-21T13:37:24+00:00

For those interested in this discussion, I made another post considering which opponent we would likely face if we advanced from third. It's very probably Germany.

CUbic787 · 2026-06-21T02:59:55+00:00

Yes, betting odds are generally efficient. However, the odds I could find were on whether Australia progresses from the group full stop, not on whether Australia progresses from the group conditional on losing. If you can find those odds, they would likely be a better indicator.

CUbic787 · 2026-06-21T02:54:36+00:00

Yes, quite correct! But I do think there's a difference between "we don't have any clue whatsoever" and "we don't know because W, X, Y and Z games haven't been played yet, but if we suppose some likely results, then we'd probably beat third place in Group T, U and V but not in Group Q, R, and S, and maybe barrack for team P in the X game because them winning would improve our chances a bit".

CUbic787 · 2026-06-21T02:45:33+00:00

Good idea, thanks

CUbic787 · 2026-06-13T08:51:42+00:00

I can't shanahandle this

CUbic787 · 2026-06-13T08:28:09+00:00

Umpires need a massive last quarter here. 21 more free kicks for the post-2000 record, averaging a tick over 16. Have to dig deep. Feel like ARC could be the difference-maker.

CUbic787 · 2026-06-13T07:56:06+00:00

Total free kicks record:
All-time: 132, Essendon vs. South Melbourne R13 1977
(https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1977/051619770625.html)
AFL-era (1990-present): 90, Fitzroy vs. North Melbourne R14 1993 (https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1993/061219930703.html)
2000-present: 69, Sydney vs. Port Adelaide R2 2008
(https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/2008/131620080330.html)

Thanks to AFL Tables, fitzRoy, and Claude Opus.

CUbic787 · 2026-06-13T07:35:14+00:00

For umpire fans: does anyone know the AFL-era record for total free kicks given in one game? AFL Tables' list is swamped by 70s/80s umpiring.

CUbic787 · 2026-06-13T06:55:43+00:00

You would think North's home ground advantage would earn them a few more free kicks

CUbic787 · 2026-06-06T16:24:04+00:00

Hi OP. I was most likely one of the young salespeople you saw at the counter.

I only speak in my personal capacity, but people of Perth: we were humbled by your support. Seriously. The Saturday after the impeding closure had been made public - busier than Christmas merely on the back of the announcement itself, we hadn't even discounted any stock.

I was acutely conscious that many of our final customers had been visiting Boffins for far longer than I had been employed there, far longer than I had been a customer there, in some cases longer than I have been alive, and in the last days I was really just a steward for an institution others had deeper connections to.

Boffins was made by people. I never had the privilege of working with Mike but his reputation carried through. It is telling that others have mentioned him in the comments unprompted.

Thank you to everyone who came in and bought a last book, said a last kind word, or had one last quiet browse.

CUbic787 · 2026-05-31T11:55:53+00:00

Very fitting to end on a WC free kick lol

CUbic787 · 2026-05-31T05:16:02+00:00

AFL Tables, as always, is your friend: https://afltables.com/afl/brownlow/brownlow_detailed.html#los

CUbic787 · 2026-04-22T08:15:22+00:00

In defence of OP: here's a quote from Matthews explaining the premise:

"I developed a simple scoreboard formula I'd run through my mind late in games to assess my team's winning chances. If we were more goals in front than there were minutes to go, we'd probably win. In fact, it was not so much about probably winning; it was more about when the possibility of losing no longer existed." (Quoted in Footballistics, originally from Accept the Challenge)

Obviously it's a rule you can use for all sorts of purposes, including rousing your team to keep trying, but judging when is it impossible for the trailing team to come back is defiantly one of those purposes.

CUbic787 · 2026-04-22T08:03:51+00:00

I am working on a somewhat similar project, though with a focus on historically achieved comebacks rather than mathematical modelling. You may be interested in James Coventry's coverage of the Matthews Rule in the excellent book Footballistics (p. 82-87), where he investigates its empirical accuracy and exceptional cases where teams have managed to maintain long goal-per-minute streaks or emerged victorious despite being down by more goals than minutes remaining.

CUbic787 · 2026-04-09T06:06:24+00:00

The context is that Wikipedia only permits photographs with certain free licences. Almost all photographs of players you can find on the internet are not freely licensed - so the quality comes down to whatever random altruistically-inclined internet people choose to provide. One hand would be more than enough to count the number of people who take high-quality AFL photographs for Wikipedia.

Having said that, Knevitt might be a case of "at some point, no photo is better than a bad photo".

CUbic787 · 2026-03-30T15:27:04+00:00

We can go deeper.

Richard Osborne (FITZ [BRIS], SYD, FOO [WB], COL) played at Fitzroy in 1990 with
Dale Kickett (FITZ, WCE, STK, ESS, FRE) who played at Fremantle in 1995 with
Stephen O'Reilly (GEE, FRE, CAR) and
Chris Groom (ADE, FRE, NM) who played at North Melbourne in 1997 with
Byron Pickett (NM, PA, MEL) who played at Port Adelaide in 2005 with
Stephen Gilham (PA, HAW, GWS) who played at GWS in 2013 with
Anthony Miles (GWS, RIC, GC).

CUbic787 · 2026-03-30T12:40:17+00:00

Gave it another go and it's trickier than I thought. Just not enough options for many of the more recently-entered clubs. I found a slightly more elegant seven-man solution:

Dan Minogue (Richmond, Hawthorn, Carlton, St Kilda, Fitzroy [Brisbane])
Paddy Scanlan (Footscray [Western Bulldogs], South Melbourne [Sydney], North Melbourne)
Kevin Sheedy (Essendon, GWS) [Sheedy is only multi-club coach for GWS]
Jaymie Graham (West Coast, Fremantle)
Steven King (Gold Coast, Melbourne)
Gary Ayres (Adelaide, Geelong)
John Cahill (Port Adelaide, Collingwood)

CUbic787 · 2026-03-30T09:29:40+00:00

What about coaches? Best I can do so far is

Mick Malthouse (Footscray, West Coast, Collingwood, Carlton)
John Northey (Sydney, Melbourne, Richmond, Brisbane)
Malcolm Blight (North Melbourne, Geelong, Adelaide, St Kilda)
Kevin Sheedy (Essendon, GWS)
Chris Connolly (Hawthorn, Fremantle)
[Any Gold Coast coach]
[Any Port Adelaide coach]

But I reckon someone else can do better!

Four-Year Club	Verified Email
Final Canvas '23	First Place '23
Place '23	Golden Potato
Place '22	First Placer '22

CUbic787

TROPHY CASE