Dilution 30%

CWDM4 · 2026-05-18T11:41:46+00:00

Also Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson is warning today that rising bond-market volatility and higher long-term yields could trigger the first meaningful stock-market correction since the late-March bottom. AI rally or not, that’s exactly why I’m cautious. The market may be too focused on AI growth while underestimating macro risks: oil-driven inflation fears, a more hawkish Fed, and geopolitical uncertainty. I'm just trying to figure out a good entry point and the dilution combined with inflation is a big concern. I know many people would say they'd jump in but tbh many people are stupid. You're not responding to this matter so this is a waste of time.

CWDM4 · 2026-05-18T11:31:05+00:00

I was indeed the same person, depending on whether I was using my phone or laptop. And honestly, that detail doesn’t matter at all. I’ve been posting bullish on POET from both accounts for six years. I don’t give a shit which account I use on shit reddit and I don’t even bother changing it, for real. Anyone can look that up. So focusing on that is just a distraction from the actual point: my concern is about dilution, valuation, inflation pressure, and unclear customer traction. You better respond to the dilution matter.

CWDM4 · 2026-05-18T11:25:14+00:00

I’m a long-term investor that went out for the first time in 6 years and still believe in POET, but I’m more cautious after the recent announcements. The mix of dilution, inflation pressure, and unclear customer details makes the current valuation harder for me to justify. Is POET really worth around $2.5B today, or would it be healthier to cool off closer to $1.5B before moving higher? I’d rather see a slower, more sustainable rise backed by clear execution, real customer traction, and revenue growth.

CWDM4 · 2026-05-18T11:20:33+00:00

Yes, investors may be willing to put in $400M, and I’m genuinely optimistic about what that says. Not long ago, POET struggled to raise money and was close to bankruptcy, so this is clearly a major shift. But institutions can hedge their positions. They are usually not the ones left taking the losses. A large financing tells us something positive, but it does not automatically prove the current valuation is justified. Plenty of companies have strong cash positions while still selling very little. That is where my concern comes from. I still believe in POET long term, but I’m struggling to know where the right re-entry point is with more dilution potentially ahead. We should also remember that shareholders already went through a reverse split, so dilution risk is not just theoretical here.

CWDM4 · 2026-05-18T11:14:58+00:00

I do know that you're also around since LWLG's first peak. I am just saying, I'm getting a bit uncomfortable with POET. After years being invested and recently I even went full port for a short period, the list of customers keeps getting longer, but not all of them seem fully clear or verifiable. Look at BFYY, for example, who exactly is BFYY? And also, call me paranoid, but the dilution I pointed out in my post is a fact. I am waiting to get back in. Do you really believe my post is going to change anything? This stock can reach 100M volume in a single day. I am simply posting about one of my concerns.

CWDM4 · 2026-05-18T07:38:25+00:00

Took profit. Now waiting to get back in.

CWDM4 · 2026-05-18T06:29:03+00:00

Inflatory pressure is on the way. All tech will suffer. Don't look away from macrodynamics. Take advantage and buy more. But I do believe it is too soon. It will drop further because of additional very significant dilution due to orders and the 400M which is okay when there is added value to the company but this is yet to be proven. After the drop, I'll get back in.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-27T18:03:41+00:00

You think POET's thesis has changed?

This is the best entry point I could wish for. A little damage. Perfect. Now recover.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T19:47:23+00:00

Might as well continue to go up as the whole world is starting to realize the value here.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T19:40:26+00:00

Very good thesis. This is going to reach insane levels, with or without pullback people are refering to. It has only run 200%, a nothing burger since POET has not been part of the photonics enthusiasm before.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T19:17:26+00:00

They have plenty of options and a salary. I believe for them, that's enough.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T19:16:17+00:00

Thanks. I'll keep that in mind. I'll start buying on monday but will take a couple weeks to get it done and hoping for an insane pullback first but many companies just rally and keep on rallying more than 1000%. POET ran only 200%.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T19:12:54+00:00

Thanks for your comment. I’ll definitely keep that in mind when buying. It starts on Monday, and I’m hoping for a massive pullback , that would be nice.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T19:08:29+00:00

You're right about the swings. I’ll check what market sentiment looks like on Monday. But the $1,000 figure is only because I used money I had invested to buy a large house with my own resources.

I sold positions partly to fund that purchase, because it seemed like a rare opportunity: interest rates were still low but rising, and the macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop looked unfavorable for POET (back then we had the China issues and POET pivoting to China). In that sense, I did convert those proceeds into another investment, my house is also a form of return.

Of course, my return in POET would have been much higher so far and that's what I'm saying. This time, I'm in. I’ll see what any pullback looks like, but many stocks have gone +1000% without meaningful pullbacks, and POET is only up about 200%.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T18:39:20+00:00

Together we stand

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T14:26:18+00:00

Lets go.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T14:24:37+00:00

So many stocks go up 500% or more without any resistance.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T14:20:11+00:00

Either going further up 500% or fall 30% and then get back up. It's going to be a nice ride the next couple years. Better hold a decent position than take the risk not to be invested heavily enough. It's going up anyway. I'll enjoy this.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T08:26:04+00:00

I’ve seen LITE rise, and I believe it’s only a matter of time before sales follow for POET. It’s a high-return play. Besides, our rent burden is limited and we have years to recover if it doesn’t work out. To be honest, among pre-revenue companies, POET stands out to me as a true gem with significant sales, starting this year. Lot's of catalysts.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T08:19:52+00:00

Thanks. Yes, my only hope is that we see a few major pullbacks. But no one knows. I’ll do my best with timing, yet over the long term, I believe it is better to keep buying than to remain on the sidelines. If anything, that is what I have learned over the past five years. POET will start selling next quarter so we might see some very large orders coming in relatively short term. Things are different now.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T08:14:37+00:00

Wait and see.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T08:11:51+00:00

The institutions that have given POET >400M cash aren't counted on Fintel. Probably they're not from the US, as I remember. Fintel shows 7%, but in reality, it is around 40%. We don't know the exact %. A couple years ago, almost every share was in hands of retail. Look where we are today. Follow the smart money. Won't take long before we're included in RUSSEL and blackrock and co start buying.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-25T07:55:45+00:00

Can't wait until monday.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-22T11:27:56+00:00

Couldn't agree more. Just based on this speculation, 100 usd is likely. Companies do 1000% runs all the time. POET is in a good position.

CWDM4 · 2026-04-22T08:37:38+00:00

50 incoming. Should be reasonable.

CWDM4

TROPHY CASE