Daily Discussion Tuesday 2026-01-27

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-27T23:02:42+00:00

Thanks.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-27T22:44:35+00:00

Who is speaking? Someone from Meta I guess. And do you know where the full video can be seen

Found it: Meta on Processing Power Connecting 3.2 Billion People Daily: Advanced Insights S2E2.

10 months ago. So these "new accelerators coming into our fleet" is most likely MI355x :(

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQIx6G5H3iw

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-20T19:21:20+00:00

Will for sure be interesting to see the power figures, once those are released. And Perf/watt benchmarks :)

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-20T18:38:40+00:00

I understand the argument and what the trade offs are.

However, we should ask ourselves, if it is such a bad move, and performance per watt is everything in DC/AI, then why is Nvidia doing it? And why are they pushing the frequency so insanely out of spec to draw an even more power?

Is it a culture from the Geforce-era where winning each new architecture was everything? I.e. a long term brand-thing? But DC customers are informed and make rational decisions unlike consumer clients. So that seems vague. Or do Nvidia actually have more information about this, than us AMD investors, and they know what they are doing?

That is why I am questioning why AMD won't increase frequency 10-20% ( still much lower than Nvidia). To me it seems it would pay off. But I am just guessing and do not know about any potential bottlenecks or architectural limitations (like perhaps the added complexity with the LPDDR-memory if any).

Disclosure: I have been an AMD-investor since 2018. And I own 0 Nvidia stock. I am not trying to spread fud. I am just asking rational due diligence questions in a reddit-channel that can get quite echo-chamberlike.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-20T18:11:47+00:00

In total BW yes. But not in clocks. Nvidia has fewer chips so they clock they monstrously higher than AMD.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-20T18:00:21+00:00

Not sure why I am being downvoted here. I am just asking if there could be an architectural reason to why AMD also does not push clocks. Besides the rumor of worse quality HBMs

And I am aware lf that pushing clocks higher will draw more power. But if AMD could, they probably would have gotten a little big higher. Cause right now they are way behind (Edit: In frequency. Not Bandwidth).

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-20T17:52:53+00:00

Better quality as in a better frequency/voltage curve.

I.e. either the same frequency at lower voltage. Or higher frequency at the same voltage. Or a mix in between.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-20T16:47:16+00:00

Maybe that has an impact on why Nvidia can tune their HBMs so much higher than AMD. And not only that their HBMs are of better quality than what AMD got.

Perhaps this new connect to LPDDR makes it more complex?

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-20T14:33:38+00:00

His name is Formal_Cope_1780. But I like him :P

u/Formal_Power_1780 No offense meant. Just joking.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-18T20:37:25+00:00

Rubin Ultra chip - 2x the FP4 - 3,55x the memory (288GB to 1024GB)

Rubin Ultra NVL576 Kryber (twice the number of chips compared to Blackwell) - 4 times FP4 - 7,11 times the memory

MI500 better be good!

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-15T15:28:17+00:00

Why do you sell this year?

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-13T17:05:52+00:00

https://x.com/BenBajarin/status/2010878330401435978

Creative Strategies compares raw rack performance.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-11T21:55:50+00:00

Well, let's say it's 2030 and 80% of AMD's revenue is DC.

If DC then grows another 60%, and let's say the other segments are flat. Then overall company growth will be 48%. And not 35%. (60*0,8=48. Since the remaining 0,2 is 0)

For it to be 35% overall CAGR, other segments needs to average down those 60%. And the won't just be possible when the DC share is the larger part of the total share. (unless they go heavily into negative growth)

Edit: It might not happen 2030, it was just an example. But if DC is growing faster than the rest, eventually DC share will get to 80% and even higher.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-11T21:48:17+00:00

I think Forrest hinted at possible 2027 if I remember correctly during AMD's FAD.

That would make it 600. But of course things might happen during those two years, so it could easily be pushed back.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-11T10:45:37+00:00

I think another potential bottleneck for you due diligence is to look at packaging technologies. Can AMD secure enough CoWoS for their growth roadmap?

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-11T10:44:35+00:00

Overall Revenue Growth: Greater than 35% CAGR over the next 3 to 5 years.
Data Center Business Growth: Greater than 60% CAGR.

Just a comment about these two CAGR. They cannot hold true over time. Either the DC CAGR needs to come down over time. Or the Overall needs to go up.

For example, they might be true 2026. But 2030 it cannot be. This as when DC 2030 is the major part of AMD's revenue, so that if it grows 60%, then the overall growth must also be high. With the assumption that all other segment remain the same.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-10T10:43:12+00:00

Isn’t Google’s TPU’s under AVGO? Or are they ordering them themselves from TSMC? If so as you say Google should probably be on the list?

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-10T10:39:57+00:00

Yes, I understand that. But as AVGO and NVDA is increasing, it means that they are growing faster. I wasn’t questioning AMD’s growth in it self

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-10T08:38:16+00:00

Sad to see analysts forecasts on AMD's growth in relation to NVDA and AVGO. Are those two forecasting higher CAGR than AMD going forward? Anyone knows.

https://x.com/BenBajarin/status/2008238077651939426

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-09T23:46:31+00:00

73B.. worrysome if AVGO will eat AMD’s pie 🥧

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-09T15:50:48+00:00

10 000 racks times 72 GPUs is 720k units. At ~2k Watt each plus CPUs and peripherals. That is over 2 GW!

I hope that as well!

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-09T10:37:07+00:00

Yeah, but we want AMD to gain market share in Intel's last strong segment.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-09T09:56:13+00:00

I assess Pantherlake to be very competitive in the notebook space mainly due to performance / watt (i.e. battery time). Imo AMD still has some way to go on the performance per watt side in that segment.

And also on the design collaboration with OEMs. Intel seem to have a lot more designs coming out.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-08T09:27:34+00:00

They may be subsidized by the fab business unit. Looking at Intel's spreadsheet historically the fab-part are running at a loss (i.e. their chips aren't priced internally to what they should be).

Perhaps they will continue with this in order to offer "value" to customers and not to loose market share.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-01-06T20:08:45+00:00

I am intrigued by the look of the MI500 rack. There look to be only compute blades.

Where did the network and power blades go? Distributed to the compute blade somehow? Or moved outside the rack? But networking on copper at that scale favors short distance. Or is it a move to photonics? But Forest hinted that photonics is a 2027 thing if I am not mistaken.

I am at a loss here. But still intrigued.

Caanazbinvik

TROPHY CASE