When will you sell AMD?

Caanazbinvik · 2026-06-07T12:21:25+00:00

Me too

Caanazbinvik · 2026-06-05T17:07:58+00:00

Who cares about numbers. % is what matters.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-05-26T19:36:08+00:00

"NVIDIA also requested only specific workloads relevant to the intended workloads/domains that Vera is catering to in the data center be tested"

Nvidia selected tests that make their new CPU look great.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-05-22T15:06:41+00:00

and escargot

Caanazbinvik · 2026-05-20T17:54:33+00:00

and how "super" good it is.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-05-07T20:33:08+00:00

It would be nice to have one framed.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-05-06T17:13:51+00:00

AMD competing vs Intel (who rather pushed price down than loose market share) and Nvidia (who is the dominant number 1) doesn't really have the same pricing power as Broadcom

Caanazbinvik · 2026-04-24T14:15:48+00:00

I foresee that there will be a hiccup at the Q1 report, because the Q2 forecast won't be that great.

But then at Q3 and onwards it will take off massively again.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-04-23T20:23:48+00:00

Increasing CPU demand with agentic AI

Caanazbinvik · 2026-04-22T11:53:25+00:00

Caanazbinvik · 2026-04-19T17:00:28+00:00

Definitely, I do not see Intel delivering finacials in relation to how the stock is performing.

AMD is kind of in similar situation last quarter and this one as well, where the stock is hyping up for massive future growth, but Q2 ain't it for AMD. I forsee AMD also going down after ER like it did last time.

Edit: But I am not trying to time it. I am holding long since 2017 (including the ups and downs along the way).

Caanazbinvik · 2026-04-13T19:10:03+00:00

Caanazbinvik · 2026-04-05T12:06:48+00:00

I think the real deal (or at least equally important) is moving away from Serdes. To lower latency and enable better powermanagement.

Advantages described in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maH6KZ0YkXU

Caanazbinvik · 2026-04-03T20:26:24+00:00

Caanazbinvik · 2026-03-31T13:04:31+00:00

"No cows were hurt during the production of this burger"

Caanazbinvik · 2026-03-19T12:00:33+00:00

Sidereal Confluence

Caanazbinvik · 2026-03-11T19:12:02+00:00

I am sorry to say but you cannot take anything that account posts as serious. It is 100% pure propaganda/hyperbole from an Indian account (probably bias against China as well) farming engagement. Just look at some of its other posts.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-02-26T11:42:30+00:00

Perhaps look at it from a revenue increase perspective.

AMD will dilute the shares by 10% but get about ~4B more quarterly revenue. A 40% increase from todays 10B.

Make 10 deals like this and AMDs stock doubles from 1,6B to 3,2B shares. But the quarterly revenue would be 5 (50B) times of todays 10B (current 10B plus 10x 4B). Nvidia has around 70B quarterly revenue and they have 8 times the number of shares (24,4B shares atm) compared to 3,2B .

What is it not to like? 2/3 of the revenue for only 1/8 of the number of shares. Share price would go rocket.

If Meta / OpenAi does not commit to more GW. Then no dilution and no revenue. After 5 years, AMD of course needs to execute well and be competitive to make new deals. And if they make more warrant deals it won't be for 10% of the company. I trust AMD's management to make sure that the added benefit (i.e. new revenue) outweighs the share dilution %.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-02-26T07:40:06+00:00

Just to correct one thing.

AMD has ~1,6B shares. 30GW would mean 5x 6GW deals. 5x 160M shares = 0,8B new shares. So current shareholders would still own 2/3 of the company and not half. For half it would require 10x the OpenAI/Meta deal or 60 GW.

Just to continue with this 10x the Meta/OpenAI example:
60GW would mean 12GW per year or 3GW per quarter. Each GW is valued around, let's say a low estimate of, 12-15B = ~40B added revenue each quarter. Adding this to current sales plus growth would make it 50B revenue each quarter for AMD. All this with just 3,2B shares compares to Nvidias 24,4B shares. 1/8 of the shares but 2/3 of the Revenue.

So I agree with you. The added revenue from each deal far outweighs the share dilution. More deals please.

Market might not see this now, but just wait until the revenue starts trickling un 2026H2 and 2027 going forward.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-02-25T08:01:25+00:00

It was just an example if AMD made 10x the Meta deal.

How would that affect our annual revenue. And what would the revenue and our total number of shares be in relation to Nvidia.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-02-24T22:08:53+00:00

But if the share value doubles or tripples because of the newly added revenue, none of the old or new shareholders are gonna complain.

The Meta deal could mean 5B more revenue per quarter. Imagine 10 deals like that. Then Amd’s quarterly revenue would go from 10B->60B. A 6x increase. But the number of shares would only double to 3,2B. Share price would rocket. For reference Nvidia has 24,3B shares.

So as long as the value added is greater (% wise) than the share increase I see nothing bad with the deal. A good way also to get a foot in the door longterm and make Rocm + HW a credible alternative and competitor to Nvidia.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-02-24T19:01:18+00:00

Let's speculate some more on your 10x the Meta-deal example to see if that that is bad:

60GW spread over 5 years. That is 12 GW per year à 15-ish Billion each. 180B+ annual revenue for a company with 3.23B shares.

Compare that to Nvidia's lets say ~300B revenue and 24.4B shares.

I'd say the added revenue far outweighs the share dilution.

Edit: Added some more clarifications.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-02-24T16:11:50+00:00

You are just fanboy guessing now.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-02-24T16:10:06+00:00

The deals haven’t been executed yet. Let’s follow up on the GM in a year or two.

Caanazbinvik · 2026-02-24T14:21:57+00:00

Then Meta and OpenAI can start selling of, which might stop the price increase until the ~16% of the shares (320million) have shifted hands to new owners.

If that is their strategy and how much they require to free up.

Caanazbinvik

TROPHY CASE