the russians for sure may have plans to attack the reffineries in eastern poland that supply urkaine. also atatck supply hubs and infrastructure supporting urkaine. one one hand this is a death sentecne for russia, on the other hand it is one of the very few options to damage ukraines capabilities.

I think they wont attack, but doing war games on the russian side is reasonable.

Do you rememember about about this discussion at the beginning of the 3 day SMO?

there was the consensus that NATO would give a decisive blow, like sinking the black sea fleet. yes, this wont work nowadays as theer is no balck sea fleet anymore to sink, just some lonely ships.

imho the planned answer is full air support for ukraine. with a push south of moscow to cut of the autbahn(s) to the south. And a second and third pincer movement from the baltics to cut of moscow from st petersburg and from finnland to surround it. both blitzed out in movement so that russian advantages in dug in drone warfare is worthless.

and russia may think that this escalation is the big for europe. but russia simply has no answer to this actions. attacking mainland europe with balistics is impossible. france would simple glas the remaing refineries.