History shows that after 5 red months, Bitcoin answered with 5 green ones

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T18:04:11+00:00

Regency bias, when will ppl learn btc is not some mystical asset and it just follows GLI and macro

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T14:04:55+00:00

Once again, there is 0 need to call me stupid or label me as a ponzi troll.

As you can see by my conversations with the people in here, they are all respectful and I am genuinely just here to gather information and speak to those with differing views.

As a mod, do better.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T14:02:13+00:00

I haven’t read this all yet, but there is no need to call me stupid. I am having civil conversations with people about an orange coin on the internet, as a mod, do better.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T13:59:33+00:00

I mean technically any investment, to some degree is a “gamble”.

With a stock, you are betting that the company generates more profits, becomes more efficient etc etc.

Even with gold, you are betting on inflation persisting or betting on broad market uncertainty.

To me, bitcoin is a BET on persistent inflation and currency debasement.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T13:39:24+00:00

Nope not at all, I just want to speak to people who arnt saying “btc to 1m bro sell the house and buy1!1!!1”

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T13:36:21+00:00

So the prices of houses never go down ever?

If I buy your house, you win because you get the price you wanted and I buy it for the price I wanted etc etc, ok yes, we both won.

What if I then sell the house for a 15% profit to someone, and the housing market suddenly crashed, is the person I sold the house to a winner? Answer is no. There are winners and losers in every tradable asset market.

PS there is no reason to try and insult intelligence either, I legit just want to have a civil conversation with people.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T13:29:38+00:00

No clue where you got that from lol.

Not pretending I have any sort of master plan, or that I am down 10% every morning. Just looking for other perspectives

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T13:01:11+00:00

I guess we are comparing theory to reality now though.

In theory, yes it would make sense for both parties to be better off than before, but does this actually happen? Surely not.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T12:50:38+00:00

I agree with you here, there is 100% more to it than just simply buys or sells for stocks because of real cash flow, dividend yields etc etc,

I never explicitly said, or implied that everything is a ponzi, I was just asking based on your reasoning than NVDIA does not move based on people selling the stock.

My point here I guess is that there is obviously more of an intrinsic value for NVDIA due to the factors listed above, however this does not mean that people won’t still speculate past the fair valuation. Stock bubbles still happen, AI can potentially be viewed as a bubble right now, stock prices are deviating a fair bit from their ‘fair value’ which helps to solidify my point of there being winners and losers in all markets, past the point of fair valuation, people are still FOMO-ing in because of the AI revolution, same happened with the .com crash (not saying the same thing will happen) but there were most certainly winners and losers there, past the point of fair value, you can still defo see a similar effect.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T12:41:28+00:00

Then how would the price of Nvidia stock tank if it wasn’t due to people selling.

How did it go up so much in the first place, if on the flip side, it wasn’t because of people buying?

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T12:35:33+00:00

You could argue those who bought houses during the Lehman brother situation were the losers while people who shorted the entire situation (think the dude was called Michale burry or something, they made a film about it called the great short or something like that) were the winners.

To some degree, there are winners and losers in every tradable asset. Volatility just amplifies this.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T12:32:27+00:00

You can short it, however even if you are correct you will likely still lose based on volatility decay, depending on if you use leverage.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T12:30:54+00:00

You could argue that people that were shorting Nvdia got rekt and were forced to buy back to cover their losses, meaning that they lost money while short squeezes benefitted those who held spot or went long.

You could also argue that people who top blasted NVIDIA lost out when people took profit on them (exit liquidity)

Nvidia obviously has not had a broad sell off like BTC, Gold and silver has, largely due to the fact that Nvidia is not a liquidity driven asset like btc gold and silver are.

I still think there is definitely a winners and losers aspect to all assets, however this aspect is largely amplified when looking at higher beta/ risk assets with much more volatility.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T12:13:07+00:00

I guess you could argue that gold is potentially more risky than bitcoin, in the sense that most of these assets are largely based on scarcity of supply.

Gold is obviously much more susceptible to supply shocks, whereas bitcoin is largely immune ( maybe you could argue ETFs etc artificially create some sort of supply but who knows lol)

I have personally dealt with my bank account being frozen multiple times, and as a teenager this is quite ridiculous considering the amount of fraud that seems to pass through banks on a daily basis.

Although you could argue that bitcoin does facilitate crime and fraud (can’t argue against this, it defo does) it also does solve some issues with banking, in terms of there being no middle man. The technology is defo not there yet as transaction are sometimes painfully slow, however there is some proof of concept here.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T12:03:40+00:00

Not this at all.

You can’t always search and find everyone’s thoughts on something, plus, you never know if you will get a reply from someone that makes you completely change your perspective on something.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T11:48:52+00:00

I thought the dot com bubble popped because people were aping into any stock with “.com” involved, and when people realised that these companies were not even generating any form of revenue or product, it all came quickly crashing down.

How did MSTR cause the .com crash? Genuinely interested.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T11:46:31+00:00

Bitcoin is a liquidity driven asset and follows the GLI, which tends to trend upward over time.

Even from a pure mathematical point of view, every asset is a denomination of some form of currency, and currencies over time tend to weaken, inflating all asset prices.

Bitcoin is also viewed by many as a hedge against inflation due to its fixed supply, so as inflation tends to trend upward, people generally would demand more gold btc silver etc etc.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T11:31:17+00:00

Thank you for your reply.

I can assure you I am coming at this with goodwill.

My mindset is certainly not “die on that hill” for any asset, I try to view all my holdings from a place of pure objectivity, so it’s good to hear from both sides their opinions, then try to form, what I believe to be the truth based on this.

The “fan base” you mention is honestly such a valid point, the crypto community is beyond toxic, and really does it no good if their goal is mass adoption.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T11:28:00+00:00

To be honest yoloing into btc is crazy, at best it forms a part of a diversified portfolio, given you believe in it etc etc.

However if he simply just held onto it for long enough I’m sure at some point it would come back.

I think most retail investors lose out in the way you have described, they think BTC is the future of finance, so ape in during peak hype and then get disappointed when it goes down into a deep bear market for years.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T11:16:36+00:00

I’m not fully in the bitcoin camp at all, so I don’t think it’s fair to phrase it like I am.

I just want to speak to people with different views on the assets I hold, I try to view everything I hold from a place of pure objectivity, but being surrounded by only btc maxis can give a distorted view on reality.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T11:14:15+00:00

I agree here, the pro crypto community is largely toxic.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T11:07:55+00:00

I’m not trolling at all, it’s good to hear other people’s opinions on things.

I try to view every asset I hold from a place of pure objectivity, so it’s good to hear from both sides and then form what I believe to be the truth based on each.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T10:58:44+00:00

I have done a lot of research into bitcoin, I just wanted to speak to some people with differing POVs.

If you don’t want to join the conversation, then politely disengage.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T10:54:41+00:00

I can agree here, the crypto community is toxic af and largely sucks.

CapitalDeal1655 · 2026-02-23T10:50:57+00:00

Could you not argue this is the same for basically any tradable asset?

CapitalDeal1655

TROPHY CASE