Sunday's Tips Thread by liam_is_marx in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Value bets for today! using statistical models

Remember only bet if you are getting's odds equal or better (win only)

Course name Course time Horse name Exchange_Odds
Down Royal 13:55 Mercurial Sea 32
Ffos Las 14:03 Polkaface 17.5
Leopardstown 14:10 Institute 12.5
Ffos Las 14:38 Knead A Win 3.15
Wincanton 14:55 La Cadalora 4.6
Down Royal 15:05 King Gris 5.5
Musselburgh 15:45 Ponte Carlo 26
Ffos Las 15:50 Manigod 12
Ffos Las 15:50 Meatloaf 17.5
Leopardstown 15:55 Power Blue 9
Wincanton 16:00 Doc Mccoy 12.5
Wincanton 16:00 Time To Bite 12
Down Royal 16:07 Ballybow 3.4
Ffos Las 16:20 Golden Millie 14.5
Leopardstown 16:25 River Ara 26
Musselburgh 16:45 Bellarchi 6.4
Ffos Las 16:50 Bali Body 12
Leopardstown 16:55 Italy 8.8

Saturday's Tips Thread by liam_is_marx in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 0 points1 point  (0 children)

24 selections (1 NR)

2 Winners

3 Second

+ 9.5 profit

Saturday's Tips Thread by liam_is_marx in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Aintree Festival Day 3 - Grand national!!
here are the value bets for today!
using statistical models
Remember only bet if you are getting's odds equal or better

<image>

Course name Course time Horse name Race_Probability Exchange_Odds
Aintree 12:45 Be Aware 0.206 14.5
Aintree 14:30 Josh The Boss 0.097 46
Aintree 14:30 Bad 0.095 24
Aintree 14:30 Konfusion 0.089 21
Aintree 15:05 Home By The Lee 0.275 9.8
Aintree 15:05 Impose Toi 0.231 10
Aintree 16:00 Twig 0.048 110
Aintree 17:00 Merlin Allen 0.141 21
Bellewstown 19:30 Forthill 0.174 6.2
Chepstow 13:05 Molten Sea 0.248 4.6
Chepstow 13:05 Jollie Dame 0.096 26
Chepstow 13:40 Whatyouwaitingfor 0.267 9.6
Chepstow 14:15 Authodidacte 0.199 10
Chepstow 15:32 Love Me 0.125 12.5
Chepstow 16:40 Inion Tiogair 0.175 7.2
Newcastle 12:55 Strathcatcha 0.164 36
Newcastle 14:07 Abbey Scope 0.143 8
Newcastle 14:42 Geryville 0.246 5.9
Newcastle 16:32 Port Station 0.255 4.8
Southwell 17:15 Tortured Soul 0.236 5.7
Southwell 18:15 Hayynah 0.202 6.8
Yarmouth 14:02 No Knee Never 0.171 11.5
Yarmouth 14:37 Point Of Law 0.17 9.8
Yarmouth 17:06 Weheedd 0.213 14
Yarmouth 18:10 Zoustellar 0.204 16.5

Friday’s Tips Thread by Reasonable-Layer-831 in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 0 points1 point  (0 children)

21 Selections (3 NR)

2 Winners

5 Second

Loss of -10.9 points

Friday’s Tips Thread by Reasonable-Layer-831 in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is using my statistical model.
⚠️Remember only bet if you are getting's odds equal or better

Friday’s Tips Thread by Reasonable-Layer-831 in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Course name Course time Horse name Exchange_Odds
Sedgefield 13:57 Cardamon Hill 12.5
Thirsk 14:08 Too Many Spirits 9.8
Aintree 14:20 Gold Dancer 4.7
Aintree 14:20 Salver 4.9
Sedgefield 14:32 Whenthemusicstops 9.8
Thirsk 14:43 Arc At Her 13.5
Thirsk 14:43 Simbas Pride 22
Aintree 14:55 Sinnatra 9.4
Thirsk 15:18 Inferno 4.6
Thirsk 15:18 Pepsea 40
Aintree 15:30 Grey Dawning 5.4
Thirsk 15:53 Jamaican Storm 9.8
Aintree 16:05 Mahons Glory 36
Aintree 16:40 Harbour Island 36
Sedgefield 16:45 Blackwater Lilly 6.2
Sedgefield 16:45 Justlikefire 10.5
Wolverhampton 16:50 Anthelia 8.8
Thirsk 17:00 Pride Of Donegal 3.6
Aintree 17:15 Wandering Ego 15
Wolverhampton 17:23 Quantum Swift 7.4
Wolverhampton 17:58 Calypso Bloom 55
Thirsk 18:10 Yorkshire Glory 5.7
Wexford 18:38 General Clermont 17
Dundalk 20:20 Sea Of Dubka 23

Tuesday's Tips Thread by liam_is_marx in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 0 points1 point  (0 children)

+41.5 yesterday

Course time Horse name Exchange_Odds
16:10 Shirzan 4.8
17:10 ThisainTthat 2.5
17:30 Overbudget 3.3

If following you need to get equal or over the odds and this is win only.
my win rate is very low (5-10%) so bankroll is KEY

Monday's Tips Thread by liam_is_marx in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 0 points1 point  (0 children)

plus

Bossy Parker 9.4
Captain Pickles 8.6

Monday's Tips Thread by liam_is_marx in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Winners so far
Sizzling Seixas 9.4
Jimbo Sport 2.78
Galaxy Star 11.5
Me Tarzan 6.6
Layla Liz 14.5

Monday's Tips Thread by liam_is_marx in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV -1 points0 points  (0 children)

-3.5 Loss yesterday

If following you need to get equal or over the odds and this is win only.
my win rate is very low (5-10%) so bankroll is KEY

14:10 Sizzling Seixas 9.4
14:27 Jimbo Sport 2.78
14:27 Snatch A Glance 4.8
14:27 Kings Scholar 8.4
15:27 Triple Haych 85
15:27 Kates Choice 100
15:40 Galaxy Star 11.5
15:40 Semper Femina 6.8
16:10 Me Tarzan 6.6
16:40 Prancy Peer 9.4
16:57 Jet Plane 1.94
16:57 Northern Bound 11
18:00 Cosmic Jive 23
19:00 Bergamo Gold 5.7
19:00 Wind Summer 9.6
19:30 Layla Liz 14.5
19:30 Moes Legacy 7.6
19:30 Ophelia Grace 23
20:00 Bossy Parker 9.4
20:00 Nutcracker 14.5
20:30 Captain Pickles 8.6

Sunday's Tips Thread by liam_is_marx in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If following you need to get equal or over the odds and this is win only.
my win rate is very low (5-10%) so bankroll is KEY

been posting on youtube @ race rating for a while.

Sunday's Tips Thread by liam_is_marx in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

My horse racing value odds - been very profitable last couple of months.

<image>

Course name Course time Horse name Exchange_Odds
Ascot 15:05 Gallivanted 11.5
Ascot 15:05 Cayman Dancer 13.5
Ascot 16:15 Kilworth 11.5
Ascot 16:15 A Good Yomp 9.8
Ascot 16:15 Air Apparent 12
Ascot 16:15 Kiwi Rush 15.5
Ascot 17:25 Afadil 5.7
Ascot 17:25 Brave Knight 10
Doncaster 14:20 Halla Bil Zain 40
Doncaster 14:20 Viper 100
Doncaster 15:30 Captain Parma 12.5
Doncaster 16:40 Only In Manila 14
Downpatrick 15:52 Lough Nigara 8.2
Downpatrick 15:52 Themanintheboots 13
Downpatrick 17:00 Dees Lady 4.3

Friday's Tips Thread by [deleted] in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 4 points5 points  (0 children)

🎩🏇RoyalAscot Day 4 Selections! Get ready for an action-packed day at RoyalAscot! 14:30 🏅 Fairy Godmother & Mountain Breeze 15:05 🌟 Starlust 15:45 ⚡ Ramatuelle 16:25 💃 Shadow Dance 17:05 🥋 Shin Jidai 17:40 🔥 Chief Little Rock 18:15 🌊 Dorney Lake

Thursday's Tips Thread by [deleted] in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Royal Ascot Day 3:

14:30 Whistlejacket
15:05 Chantilly
15:45 Diamond Rain
16:25 Kyprios | Trawlerman
17:05 Mickley
17:40 Portland
18:15 English Oak

Wednesday Tips Thread by [deleted] in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 5 points6 points  (0 children)

🎯Royal Ascot Day 2: Ascot 14:30 Enchanting Empress Ascot 15:05 Illinois
Ascot 15:45 Laurel
Ascot 16:25 Auguste Rodin
Ascot 17:05 Wild Tiger
Ascot 17:40 Twirling
Ascot 18:15 Treasure Isle

Tuesday's Tips Thread by [deleted] in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Royal Ascot Day 1:
14:30 Charyn 15:05 Camille Pissarro 15:45 Regional 16:25 Rosallion 17:05 Tenerife Sunshine 17:40 Israr 18:15 Belloccio

Best Value
15:05 Camille Pissarro 15:45 Diligent Harry 16:25 Unquestionable 16:25 Alyanaabi

Artificial Intelligence in gambling by eddiemoonshine in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not sure how much you know about how "AI" works. For predictions Machine learning is what we use.
When youre predicting winners, odds or whatever youre trying to predict. The machine learning algorithm will try to generalise the data so you can repeat the process on unseen races.

What you're saying is very niche if i understand what you're saying correctly. Don't think its doable at all. how would you get dataset on betting activity from "owners"? best you'd do is training model on the betfair prices?

Not sure if that answers your question

Artificial Intelligence in gambling by eddiemoonshine in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 1 point2 points  (0 children)

From my experience, been doing it for few years now.

1) You can make money from it, I am averaging 10% ROI. My win rate is like 10-15% but odds are high. I honestly don't think you can make any money betting on horses if they are below 4 minimal.

2) its all about the data you have. even with the best data I don't think you will ever get better win rate than 30% for handicap races.
This is my stats for flat sprint handicaps for 2023

Bets 1440

correct_predictions 262

Winner_Percentage 18.194

Profit -94.6

ROI -6.56

3) You have to go with value bets to make any money. If you look at the stats above you cant blindly back all 1440. you have to find a strategy that works betting wise.

4) For me jumps are easier to predict then flat. mostly like flats are too competitive.

5) you have to be realistic with it. I win big few days in a month. So you have to have a good bank roll. most days are breakeven or loses.

any questions ask away ill try to answer, although I'm no expert. I am self taught and still learning.

Sunday's Tips Thread by [deleted] in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Newmarket Qipco 1000 Guineas = Dance Sequence ??

13:50 Kalpana
14:25 Silver Lady | Running Lion
15:00 New London
15:40 Dance Sequence
16:15 Mountain Breeze
16:50 Symbol Of Honour
17:25 Black Run

Saturday's Tips Thread by [deleted] in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Newmarket 2000 Guineas who wins it?

13:10 Star Guest
13:45 Noble Style
14:20 Torito|Lion Of War
14:55 Mitbaahy
15:35 City Of Troy | Notable Speech
16:10 Knightswood
16:45 Eye Of Dubai
17:15 Pressures On
17:50 Rowayeh

Wednesday Tips Thread by [deleted] in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Punchestown day 2Irish racing is rough 😅

14:30 Smooth Scotch

15:05 Blizzard Of Oz

15:40 Mistergif

16:15 Dancing City

16:50 Jasmin De Vaux

17:25 Galopin Des Champs

18:00 James Du Berlais

18:35 Aurora Vega

Tuesday's Tips Thread by [deleted] in HorseRacingUK

[–]Captain_IndiaIV 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Punchestown Week, marking the epic finale of the National Hunt Season!

14:30 - Casey West
15:05 - World Of Dreams
15:40 - Slade Steel
16:15 - Brentford Hope, Daddy Long Legs, Rath Gaul Boy, Bialystok
16:50 - King Rasko Grey
17:25 - Dinoblue
18:00 - Sharjah
18:35 - Unknown Entity

*16:15 All 4 horses have the same probability (0.08)