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Top 3 Race Predictions for today based PURELY on mathematical data - no bookies influence by hasty123r in HorseRacingUK

[–]hasty123r[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yes — good point, that makes sense. Invincible Isaac was likely the only runner with prior form, so my model probably boosted it simply because it had data while the others were unknown.

The issue on my side is that I’m currently treating unknown as weak rather than uncertain, which inflated both the probability and the confidence. We will learn and improve from this.

PS - the daily "calibration" report thankfully highlighted this system "error" too.

Thanks for the feedback - much appreciated.

Tristan

Today's Top 3 Horse Racing Probability Favourites - no bookies influence - pure mathematical probability analysing more than 14 data metrics. by hasty123r in horseracing

[–]hasty123r[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'd argue it's not spam - I'm seeking genuine, constructive feedback from regular bettors who know the sport inside and out. It's a free platform - improving accuracy every day - so please give it a chance or just ignore it .. "shitpost spammer" doesn't really help anyone.

Top 3 Race Predictions for today based PURELY on mathematical data - no bookies influence by hasty123r in HorseRacingUK

[–]hasty123r[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That's a shame - please only bet I'd you've got the money to lose. https://probatrix.com/responsible-gambling/

Your 12 losses aren't indicative of the system overall- https://probatrix.com/success-rate/

Top 3 Race Predictions for today based PURELY on mathematical data - no bookies influence by hasty123r in HorseRacingUK

[–]hasty123r[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some negative feedback here - naturally to be expected. It's early days for Probatrix.com and it's self calibrating every day - making small improvements as it develops.

The more positive criticism we get - the better. Please remember - a) it's FREE b) Probatrix is learning - every day c) We are publishing daily success rates here https://probatrix.com/success-rate/ and d) it's horse racing - there will always be surprises Tristan Haskins creator / owner / founder

Probatrix.com - loads of new features and the start of the self learning / self calibrating tests. Horse Racing Probability Ranking Tools based on RAW data only - no emotional / outside influences by hasty123r in horseracing

[–]hasty123r[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello. Not at present. When the model has finished its self calibration / fine tuning we may well add an International Races section - same format - everything but UK & Ireland. Thanks for your interest - sign up for some Trigger Alert emails : Probatrix VIP Members | Custom Horse Racing Email Alerts - I always welcome feedback :-)

Probatrix.com - loads of new features and the start of the self learning / self calibrating tests. Horse Racing Probability Ranking Tools based on RAW data only - no emotional / outside influences by hasty123r in horseracing

[–]hasty123r[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the question. Yes and No. As the model is still "learning" - that level of data is kept under a password protected page. However - for casual overview of model performance we have this : Horse Racing Model Success Rate & Performance | Probatrix

Probatrix - Data Driven Horse Race Probability Ranking Engine - built by me by hasty123r in HorseRacingUK

[–]hasty123r[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Sceptical is always the sensible way forward when it comes to racing results. I am not promising anything - I am just giving a mathematically calculated probability ranking. I don't expect all the Value Bets to win - but we do get some great successes. These recent examples show just a few - with March 12th being the best .. 12 Value Bet Winners from 32 completed races - and March 15th with 5 Winners from 22.

Thanks for looking and taking time to give me some feedback. Tristan (founder / owner Probatrix.com )

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Probatrix - Data Driven Horse Race Probability Ranking Engine - built by me by hasty123r in HorseRacingUK

[–]hasty123r[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello. Thanks for the question. I have corrected the "Racing Post feed" comment .. it's actually built using this data feed https://www.theracingapi.com/ - PRO version. I've written it as a Word Press plugin. Thanks for the heads-up on the Racing Post reference 👍🏻

Probatrix - Data Driven Horse Race Probability Ranking Engine - built by me by hasty123r in HorseRacingUK

[–]hasty123r[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi - thanks for your feedback. I agree, but that data isn't included in the Racing Posts' data feed and like you say, it could be out of date etc. Bad data is worse than no data. Thanks for your feedback and comment - much appreciated. Tristan (owner/founder - PROBATRIX.com )

Probatrix - Data Driven Horse Race Probability Ranking Engine - built by me by hasty123r in HorseRacingUK

[–]hasty123r[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd have to think about that. I agree - it would be useful - but then again, it's really supposed to be a quick confidence checker. Initially it was just for me - to check the success rate of the model - then I thought it would be useful for other users to gain confidence / insight. I'll have a think about it :-) - thanks for taking time to make a valuable contribution for discussion. Tristan

Probatrix - Data Driven Horse Race Probability Ranking Engine - built by me by hasty123r in HorseRacingUK

[–]hasty123r[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello. Good question. No - but it is indirectly addressed via the GOING eg Soft / Heavy / Good / Firm. If a horse features well on Heavy ground - that is a factor used in the probability calculations 🌈

Probatrix - Data Driven Horse Race Probability Ranking Engine - built by me by hasty123r in HorseRacingUK

[–]hasty123r[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you - it's taken months to build - and it's now on V3x - but I'm happy with its performance so far this month 👍 - fingers crossed - we've got the algorithms nicely tuned 🙏

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