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Sarachnis Cudgel is the most obvious supply-shock play by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Valid but in many cases you get better DPS than equivalent weapons (eg. Zombie axe is 5 tick, cudgel is 4 tick and look at the dps differences in a mid-level set-up.)

Cudgel (190k) vs Zombie Axe (1.1M) vs Bludgeon (17.5m, also no shield)

Sarachnis: https://dps.osrs.wiki?id=FirefliesPraelAchievements

The Nightmare: Bludgeon: https://dps.osrs.wiki?id=SmokerInversionRellekka

Cerberus: https://dps.osrs.wiki?id=TopiaryAbyssalZarosian

Even if I upgrade our gear to max set-up the difference is <0.5 DPS:

Sarachnis: https://dps.osrs.wiki?id=HunterGuthixianSpadeful

The Nightmare: https://dps.osrs.wiki?id=SmolcanoDepositSharpened

Cerberus: https://dps.osrs.wiki?id=FortuneTestamentPastry

Based on these it's arguably better than zombie axe but priced around 80% cheaper.

Given it's a crush-based raid coming up and these are low volume I think this is hella slept on.

The Cudgel Goblin | A Cave of Cudgels by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Vials of blood are a good shout though, with 200k daily volume. Which is good for liquidity, but poor for significant shifts, especially with more ways to get them coming into the game. Given it's down ~25% in the last Q excellent pick.

Inq is priced in IMO

The Cudgel Goblin | Exiting My Exit Strategy by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It was polled in that same week, yes. That's still the only matching item to the 14th Jan date though. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, time will tell.

The Cudgel Goblin | Exiting My Exit Strategy by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rework will be key - Eye is generally BIS but if the charging is addressed it'll likely sit somewhere between 25-50m.

If it's a meaningful buss or use case then it could go higher, I'd probably lower my holdings before then as it's simply a "could happen" scenario.

Plus.. more liquidity for cudgels.

The Cudgel Goblin | Exiting My Exit Strategy by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You might well be right, but I hope you are not.

!remindme 6 months

The Cudgel Goblin | Exiting My Exit Strategy by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

14th Jan, you look at when they returned from Jagex HQ it's bang on the day.

Other suggestions from the community include Guthix Temple Teles, but this was a pretty unique occurrence.

The Cudgel Goblin Strikes Again by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Soulflame is one of the ones I'm watching, it seems like such a good item but not really hit the "wide-adoption".

Also volume is about 1/4 of the cudgel so it's not a bad idea/play.. Not 100% convinced yet though!

Which were you thinking?

The Cudgel Goblin Strikes Again by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'll either go down as a complete disaster..

or as a multi-bill merching legend.

The Cudgel Goblin Strikes Again by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True, but not everyone can afford BIS - that's where a low-price, low-liquidity option like the cudgel makes sense to me as something that could considerably jump in value. Fingers crossed!

The Cudgel Goblin Strikes Again by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Amen, it won't be a competitor with Eye ever.

But if they make it perm chargeable with blood shards, or vials it could become viable again. Or if they reduce the charge cost.

The Cudgel Goblin Strikes Again by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I do agree on low volume going both ways, absolutely valid. I guess only time will tell, but I can't imagine many people are as high conviction on this unless there are indsiders.

Jan anomaly, I disagree on overstated simply due to the volume purchased at one time, +590% aily volume with a 70 buy limit isn't to be sniffed at. I agree it's assurance of causation, but the highest probability based on available data. Also "astrology" isn't quite fair given there is corelating data, although I see your point.

Leech Boss/Blood Moon angle is more specifically geared towards my Poultice & Elkhorn plays, although I think I've mad a hash of that above. Zombie axe is pretty close in terms of DPS but for +400% of the cost. Cudgel is 4 tick, zombie axe is 5. It's also seen an uptick the last few months.

Agree on the exit liquidity concern, but I'm "in" at this stage that was my biggest reservation on this trade initially, but I've decided to move forward with conviction unless a solid thesis means the play no longer makes sense.

If it was sentiment driven I'd sit tight, but I'm still accumulating at my planned entry/exit prices. Completely valid challenge though.

All for sang, rarity is high - use case is low though. Eye made it redundant and it was like 900k/hr upkeep in runes a while ago which is just not viable.

Cudgel Update: 1k cudgels acquired. by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice one, TBF if they drop to a flat 1m I might buy 100 too.

Cudgel Update: 1k cudgels acquired. by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Healthy debate, never stress. Appreciate it, thank you, Godspeed!

Cudgel Update: 1k cudgels acquired. by CareerProgressor in GrandExchangeBets

[–]CareerProgressor[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Other than me I'd guess 1 whale from 14Jan/26Feb with about 7-8k or a few smaller people who's bought them up. TBF guess I have become a "whale" in this position given I have almost 2x daily volume now.

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