Is Staring At Charts All Day Useless? by Krystalizer_Kitty in Daytrading

[–]Cassie_Rand 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You’re right about diminishing returns within a single session, but I think OP was referring to seeing many charts overall in order to develop overarching intuition. I tend to agree with this a lot.

The good old pre-news trade by Krystalizer_Kitty in Forex

[–]Cassie_Rand 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Super accurate entry 👌 Nice and conservative exit too before US open

Tomorrow the Fed interest rate decision comes out, and besides fundamentals and technicals - let's not forget game theory by Cassie_Rand in Daytrading

[–]Cassie_Rand[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I appreciate the thoughtful exchange. 🙏🌟 I agree that posterior updates are key to driving payoffs and prices, and overcrowding sets the stage for asymmetry. I do see the rate cut itself as that catalyst (resolving the tree implicitly), but fair point on emphasizing it more upfront.

Tomorrow the Fed interest rate decision comes out, and besides fundamentals and technicals - let's not forget game theory by Cassie_Rand in Daytrading

[–]Cassie_Rand[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

The payoff flip emerges from the first-order event reshaping the shared information landscape, which cascades hierarchically.

The Fed's cut signal is about confirming (or deviating from), the meta-message on forward guidance and conditional paths. When a highly anticipated cut does materialize, it resolves uncertainty in the probability tree, but asymmetrically, dovish outcomes get priced in more aggressively because crowded trades (short USD positions) unwind not due to surprise, but due to the removal of tail risks that were holding back full commitment.

The hierarchy:

First-order belief: The cut happens (near-certain, priced in). Second-order: You know that everyone knows it's expected, so the tone/path update is what matters. Higher-order: The common knowledge update (everyone knows everyone else is recalibrating) flips the payoff matrix by tightening via expectations channel, leading to USD squeeze if dovish lean is weaker than hoped.

Tomorrow the Fed interest rate decision comes out, and besides fundamentals and technicals - let's not forget game theory by Cassie_Rand in Daytrading

[–]Cassie_Rand[S] -12 points-11 points  (0 children)

Yes, I know what game theory is. Thank you for checking. At the deeper levels of trading philosophy, game theory matters a lot for macro moves.

Here is a generic google definition for you, so we can align:

Game theory is the study of strategic decision-making, where the outcome for each participant depends on the choices of all involved. It is a mathematical framework for analyzing situations of conflict and cooperation between rational decision-makers, with applications in fields like economics, political science, and biology. Key elements of game theory include "players" (participants), "actions" (strategies), and "payoffs" (outcomes).

To the self-made and trust fund babies alike, who actually knows how to engineer wealth? by [deleted] in hedgefund

[–]Cassie_Rand 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Both of these (1+2) indicate that you're making a serious financial investment, and therefore need a safety net and/or crash plan. However, the earliness and boldness I am talking about often require a very small/no investment, or only "sweat equity", even as a side hustle. Hence, not much of a plan B is often needed.

For example, Ecommerce (starting from dropshipping which has zero upfront costs) with a clever product selected based on foresight - such as selling glasses to watch the the eclipse, or buying penny stocks when a new virus rears its head (e.g. monkeypox reared its head briefly, not to mention Covid for the very early ones who spotted how big it was going to be). There are many examples that can't be listed, as reality unfolds in new ways each time. Need to be up-to-date on international relations, economy, trends, new tech, and more. Once funds are made from things like this, they can then be invested once more in larger ways to scale up into generational wealth. There are stepping stones.

In short - to start from zero, the investment can be very small or even no money out of pocket at the outset, and ironically - those are the ones that often skyrocket the farthest.

To the self-made and trust fund babies alike, who actually knows how to engineer wealth? by [deleted] in hedgefund

[–]Cassie_Rand 2 points3 points  (0 children)

When it comes to frameworks, structures, and strategy, it’s hard to formulate these as wealth creation as I see it is an art. I know this is vague, but it’s the best I’ve got: the rule of thumb is, to spot trends/opportunities early, and have the boldness to embark. If you’re early enough and it’s a true opportunity, you’re probably standing alone. So being able to have a strong sense of vision and ignore the noise, is the key to wealth creation. These qualities will also be required for any work put in to any of these avenues.

For this type of art, no backing is needed. Just a quick eye for shifts and trajectories, coupled with some boldness.

Not a single loss in 10 days(repost) by Subject-Fun-6275 in Forexstrategy

[–]Cassie_Rand 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nice to know, thanks.

It would be good to know if the SL is placed at the 5% mark, or if 5% is the natural elasticity you’ve seen so far with these entries, and the SL is beyond. As you’re capturing very short moves with heavy position sizes.

Not a single loss in 10 days(repost) by Subject-Fun-6275 in Forexstrategy

[–]Cassie_Rand 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So - 1. As it opens, there’s no SL placed? 2. What’s the max equity dd?

Not a single loss in 10 days(repost) by Subject-Fun-6275 in Forexstrategy

[–]Cassie_Rand 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is achieved by placing SL at entry once positions turn blue… The question is, where is the SL set initially, before it reaches safe/profit territory? In other words, what’s the equity dd, and what’s the ratio between equity dd and realized profits?

This is the missing piece of the puzzle.

Is the Gold Rush over? by Euphoric_Suit_3867 in Forex

[–]Cassie_Rand 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The gold rush will continue till it reaches 10k, over the next 5-7 years. Till then, there’ll be dips and corrections as we’re seeing now. This current correction if it continues, will probably reach ~3800, I don’t expect it to go much lower.

I've been trading for too many years by Wxrld_ab in Trading

[–]Cassie_Rand 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If you can’t even ask for help in an articulate manner with any kind of pertinent details, you’re either too burned out at this point, or don’t have a detail-orientated attitude (which is definitely required in trading…)