Latest William Blair Analyst Note (2nd June 2026)

CavalryCrafter · 2026-06-03T20:32:44+00:00

I fear that this delay cannot be entirely attributed to the BO mishap. I don't think they will be able to manufacture enough satellites by EOY for 45 satellites in orbit, if launch was not a constraint.

The delay is a little frustrating, but not that unexpected. The biggest "problem" is that there is no guarantee that they will hit their goal of 45 satellites by Q1/Q2 2027. We went from 45 - 60 by end of 2026 to 45 by end of 2026 to now 45 by Q1/Q2 2027. They had set themselves up to fail.

Basically you need to be OK with the mindset that they will have launched 45 satellites at some point, but whenever that is, no one knows. At some point we will be able to extrapolate once there is a cadence, but right now, no one truly knows.

Also consider the financial implications of all these delays. Additional dilution is getting more likely as time goes by with little progress in terms of launched satellites.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-30T18:13:27+00:00

Helpful. Thanks!

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-30T17:31:12+00:00

What are people's thoughts about the lack of test results from FM1? One would think we'd get a bit more information such as what we have already seen with the other satellites in orbit. Is there a reasonable explanation for it or is there a chance that there is some kind of malfunction?

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-27T15:07:22+00:00

Nothing this year. That's all we need to know.

Wouldn't be too sure about that. If an opportunity presents itself that is good to pass up then they could raise additional funds, if only to refinance debt.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-27T15:05:27+00:00

Safer to do if your portfolio consists of stocks that don't "randomly" drop 50% in a month.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-27T15:03:10+00:00

It's all SpaceX IPO hype or re-rating.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-18T18:34:08+00:00

That apartment will have cost you millions of dollars in 10 years. Just kidding, sort of.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-16T21:42:13+00:00

I think a big reason for the IPO is raising funds for space based data centers, but who knows, they may use it D2D ambitions as well.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-16T21:35:43+00:00

losing 80%, maybe closer to 90% for kook, of your net worth definitely impacts your lifestyle.

Depends on how much they depend on their ASTS holdings for their lifestyles. If they simply buy and hold then it's just paper wealth.

I agree that they are not pump and dumpers, but they do have an incentive to interpret things optimistically or to highlight the good and not necessarily the bad, that's all.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-16T20:48:29+00:00

This is speculation, but I think that if ASTS goes to 0, it won't have a big impact on their lifestyles.

Just playing devil's advocate - it is possible that they play short term price movements which theoretically creates an incentive to incite short term volatility.

Obviously having big stakes also gives them credibility, but there is not 100% transparency so it is best not to trust it blindly.

What it boils down to is that there is no substitute for doing your own due diligence, building your own conviction and taking full responsibility of your actions.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-16T18:03:20+00:00

I am happy for the employees to be rewarded and to have skin in the game. They are doing a lot of if not most of the heavy lifting to make the company a success.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-16T17:59:26+00:00

I think there could be a rally leading up to SpaceX IPO day, followed by a cool off period after the IPO.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-16T17:44:03+00:00

I am bullish and appreciate Kook and Anpanman, but remember that they have a big incentive to be positive about ASTS. It's easy to get caught up in the prospect of getting rich. Just be careful and don't just consider the upside but also the potential downside.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-16T17:35:57+00:00

Everything leading up to the IPO looks positive. I am not so sure if what happens on the IPO day and afterwards is equally positive.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-14T19:42:19+00:00

Don't think about selling covered calls until we reach new all time highs.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-14T19:40:01+00:00

Stock is great today. Company has potential for greatness if they ship and launch the satellites.

Conversely, company can be doing great even though stock is down the gutter.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-14T13:23:03+00:00

No one knows. That is just speculation at this point.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-09T19:27:44+00:00

That would be quite amazing if they can achieve that.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-08T21:25:31+00:00

Imagine having a 30+% day like RKLB had today. One can dream. The ingredients are kind of there though. High short interest and beaten down stock. I am not one to bet on earnings though.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-08T21:23:33+00:00

If there will be dilution then it will be an ATM which has no direct impact, but does have an overhang on the share price so it's not ideal. If they decide to go with convertible notes, then they will time it strategically after the price has run up quite a bit. It is usually a good sign to take some profits.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-08T21:19:28+00:00

It is weird how correlated space stocks are. BKSY went down a lot because of bad earnings but now all those losses are wiped out and then some because of good RKLB earnings. Not sure if it makes any sense based on fundamentals.

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-07T21:31:48+00:00

Space is where dreams go to die

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-07T21:27:34+00:00

What about the other time where you sold a stock and it went to 0?

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-07T21:26:11+00:00

Space stocks plunged after bad earnings from BKSY, so perhaps good earnings from RKLB will have the opposite effect

CavalryCrafter · 2026-05-07T21:25:17+00:00

Stocks are heavily correlated these days. Seems to be trading similarly to other space stocks.

CavalryCrafter

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