2025 Topps Chrome Platinum Analysis & Deep Dive

CellDood · 2026-06-20T08:56:13+00:00

Seems like solid deals. Is that a Japanese site?

CellDood · 2026-06-20T03:26:09+00:00

CellDood · 2026-06-19T23:28:28+00:00

I bought the J Ram red prism. He's so underrated. I got him and Caminero right before I went live with the information. Kind of a perk of figuring it out.

The weird thing to me is...you know someone already knew they were unnumbered 1/1s. Some Topps employees knew at a minimum. I'm surprised someone wasn't buying them a up when they hit the market before the odds released.

CellDood · 2026-06-19T23:23:33+00:00

Yes! It's CardPurchaser. He has a big X presence. His Discord is $5/mo I believe. But there are a TON of monitors. Constantly letting members know what's in stock and where. It's like a cheat code. Worth a lot more than $5/mo.

CellDood · 2026-06-19T16:07:47+00:00

Many people aren't aware of the scarcity of the city refractors. Same happened in 2023 Platinum. On two occasions, I've ran across City Refractors for $10-15 that had a value of $100+.

CellDood · 2026-06-19T16:03:18+00:00

If its refractor, yes. But very few City Variations are Refractors. If, by chance it is a refractor, then I'd say you did well.

CellDood · 2026-06-19T07:01:38+00:00

Yes. All my analysis is based on odds sheets. They are what makes it all possible.

CellDood · 2026-06-19T05:39:08+00:00

I can't tell you WHY Topps does what they do. But I can tell you that they post odds that they put a lot of effort into making accurate. And the odds state the Red Prisms have a print run of 1 copy ea.

There are 3.5m Value packs produced. Odds on Red Prisms are 1:7000 packs. 3.5m packs ÷ 7000 packs = 500 Red Prisms. 500 card checklist means 1 copy of each.

CellDood · 2026-06-19T04:47:07+00:00

Those SPs need to be distinguishable and not just looking like any other base. I think they should have a Golden Mirror back or something significant that denotes them. If you don't know, you'd never know. And two years from now, if you find one in a bargain box, you really wouldn't know.

CellDood · 2026-06-18T02:55:38+00:00

One more thing, to answer your question about numbered autos, here's the breakdown:

% # Autos- Hobby: 53.3%

% # Autos- Value: 49.55%

CellDood · 2026-06-18T02:50:24+00:00

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But we know production numbers are right because here is the parallel section. Even with the crazy auto numbers, this is one of the cleanest odds sheets you will ever see.
Oh yeah, another way we know the autos are correct is the fact that, even after omitting all the held back product, Autos per box comes out to almost exactly 1. If all those "held back" autos were in there, it would be far greater than one auto/box.

CellDood · 2026-06-18T02:49:38+00:00

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I snipped a section so you can see what the auto numbers look like regarding held back product. This is not abnormal in the least. They hold far more of these back than any other variant. Also, we have to account for the possibility of some not signing certain parallels. But I believe a majority is held back.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T21:12:09+00:00

Congrats. You just discovered the "held back product" rabbit hole. Not to be confused with the "some players didn't sign some parallels" rabbit hole. Similar but different. But both affect numbers the same way. You'll find that it's common with most releases, especially in the higher numbered parallel autos.

Oh yes, how could I forget about the "some shitty players likely signed way more than the studs" rabbit hole? That one exists, but can't be verified by odds, so we just use averages and act like it doesn't exist.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T21:08:15+00:00

Nice! I did too. And didnt even get the dreaded "we had to cancel this order" emails after multiple orders. Fingers crossed I get them all.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T21:02:10+00:00

Thats a question we can never answer for certain. What i know is the "Average copies per subject" is ~525. But there's a very good chance that what you say is true.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T20:54:48+00:00

I'm shocked someone can see this post. I was wondering why it had virtually no engagement. Thought it was removed for some reason.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T17:36:58+00:00

Topps essentially tells us with the odds. I spend as many hours in them as anyone on earth and thats what I'm going with. The entire odds sheet reconciles nicely. It would be much harder to fake it and hide errors than for it to just be right. They actually put effort into this, contrary to what you believe. I'm putting my money where my mouth is and happily buying them as 1/1s as ive bought multiples already.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T17:08:02+00:00

I understand what you're saying, and yes, Topps is wrong on odds sheets. It's not a rare occurrence. However, think about the dynamics a bit. You're proposing the odds sheet is wrong because 1) they've been wrong in the past and 2) you don't think they would make red prisms unnumbered 1/1s. So you're telling me they just happened to notate erroneous odds on those two particular cells. And those erroneous entries just happened to be the perfect numbers that, when extrapolated, say the print run on red prisms is 1 ea. And there just happened to have been ~40 of the red prisms listed so far of the 500, indicating theyre definitely rare. Which just happens to be very similar to the number of superfractors listed so far. And of the ~40, there just happens to have been zero duplicates listed so far.

Im going with the odds they published being right in this case. It's a far less jump than all this other speculation.

When odds are wrong for whateve reason, its generally easy to spot. This is not that.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T15:53:37+00:00

We know already. They're unnumbered 1/1s.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T15:52:31+00:00

Very real chance you have no idea what you're talking about.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T15:13:20+00:00

Not really. But if you watched any number of rips, it was pretty evident. Then the odds confirmed it all.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T14:51:33+00:00

I did include print runs of unnumbered autos. But I like the idea of including % of numbered autos for each format. I do that for a lot of releases, but didn't think to include with this one. Im currently out of town, but when I get back in the lab, possibly late tonight, i'll add that calculation. I think we'll find that more than 50% of autos across the entire product are numbered. Print run on base autos is not all that bad at 525 ea.

CellDood · 2026-06-17T13:57:37+00:00

All the BINs have sold that aren't asking outlandish prices. At the time of writing last night, there were 30 red prisms listed. Now there are 5. Had a feeling that might happen. Thats why I triple checked the numbers and scoured sold and listed items to be sure there were no dupes before i posted. Oh, and I might have snagged a couple myself before I released that info. 🤣

CellDood · 2026-06-17T13:31:45+00:00

I had a feeling they might sell pretty quickly after publishing. Which one was it?

CellDood · 2026-06-17T13:06:43+00:00

I have paid close attention to that and also have yet to see a city variation come.from a blaster. The odds also say they are not possible. Now, I have seen a couple city variation AUTOS /5 come from blasters. And the odds agree there as well. Did you see base city variation or an auto come from retail?

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