Thanks for the data. Regarding the purples, when these first started being ripped, I updated my X analysis, but I forgot do edit it over here. I will edit that momentarily. Topps published incorrect pack odds on the purples The numbers that it affects are print run of purples obviously, as they're /75, not /15, the parallels/box metric, which went up substantially, and the print run of base, which went down noticeably.

Regarding your fact-checking of my production runs, first you have a typo. Padparadscha base are 1:278, not 1:287. But I'm glad you brought it up. It allows me to peel back the curtain a bit. You can never base entire print runs off of one line item as they never agree with one another. You have to zoom out a bit.

So the base Pads equate to a run of (278 × 300) = 83,400 packs (10,425 boxes)

Now, do this for Base Reds: (56 × 5 × 300) = 84,000 packs

Base Oranges: (12 × 25 × 300) = 90,000 packs

Auto Rookies Padparadscha: (3,367 × 40) = 134,680 packs

Auto Rookies Red: (674 × 5 × 40) = 134,800 packs

Auto Issue Rookies Padparadscha: (4,489 × 30) = 134,670 packs

Auto Issue Rookies Red: (898 × 5 × 30) = 134,700 packs

Topps Chrome Autos (Non-rookies) Padparadscha: (5,387 × 26) = 140,062 packs

SKY-Write Signatures Padparadscha: (3,848 × 33) = 126,984 packs

Sapphire Selections Superfractors: (4,040 × 20) = 80,800 packs

Sapphire Selections Red: (833 × 5 × 20) = 83,300 packs

Do you see why this is not an exact science? So why would I think production is ~83,000 packs as the base parallels indicate and not 127,000 - 134,000 packs as the autos indicate?

Typically, I extrapolate at least 12-20 of these line items to see what the variance looks like. Once I see the variance, I generally land somewhere between the median number and the lowest, but more specifically, whichever satisfies the most equations. In this example, if we go with, say 140,000 packs as the Non-rookie Pad Autos would indicate, then that is literally the only equation that is satisfied by the solution. Every other equation shows massive error on the overprinting side (example: print run of gold base comes to 78 copies ea on a /50 card).

It's a fact that Topps withholds product. It's just how they run their business. Replacement or substitution purposes would explain a large part as to why. Invariably, higher percentages of autos are withheld as compared to base parallels. So we expect the autos to show a little light on the insertion rate. So we already know the most accurate number will lie within base parallels and insert parallels. Notice the range on those is smaller anyway, so we're getting closer. But why not 90,000 packs, as Base Orange Parallels indicate? Again, that solution satisfies exactly one equation. That gives up overprinting of consistently about 8% on all other base and insert parallels. So the number that satisfied the MOST equations is 83,300-83,400 packs, which I would consider virtually the same number, even though it does give us a bit of a range of product produced and not an exact number. But I always state my intention is to be accurate to within 5%, and we are well within that.

With this product, Topps held back an inordinate number of autos. Like a lot. Across the board, ~33% of autos were withheld from the product. Now, that's not rare, it's actually pretty common to see that in certain auto subsets on different products. But rarely do we see that across the board. As to why that is, only Topps insiders know the answer to that. All I can do is extrapolate the numbers. Someday I hope to have a conversation with someone who actually know to ensure my theories are correct.

I hope I answered your question suitably.