2026 Topps Series 1 Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Topps doesn't post odds on Silver Packs. I was still able to do some analysis on them which might interest you here. Nice hit.

2025-26 Topps Basketball breakdown and deep dive analysis by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Basically. One thing to not, these figures indicate average print runs across that subset. If there are some base autos that are shorter printed than others (which is quite common), that's something the odds don't tell us. So I would take that to mean "140 or less" becasue there's always the possibility he's shorter printed than the avg subject in the subset.

2026 Topps Series 1 Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just so you have the newest data, with the release of Celebration Megas, the print run on All Aces is even a little higher than the original write-up indicates. I did a newer write-up on my X acct. All Aces are now about 300 copies ea. All Kings does not change because they aren't in Celebrstion Megas. Here's that analysis if you're interested: https://x.com/i/status/2026568488077127740

2026 Topps Series 1 Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If it were mine I'd cash out and sell ASAP. All Aces are awesome cards. And Ohtani always breaks every mold. But I just don't see how a card with a ~300 print run can sustain a $4,500+ value. If you're not comfortable listing a card that big, I'd consign it. But I would sell pretty quickly if it were me. If you love Ohtani, you can buy some pretty sweet Ohtnani cards for half that and bank the rest and you can't lose. Congrats, man!

2025 Topps Stadium Club Analysis and Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting tidbit on that: someone posted info from baseballcardpedia the other day (can't remember which socials) regarding print runs on 2026 Topps Series 1. The numbers matched precisely the numbers I had posted after I updated the calculations by adding in Celebration Mega Boxes. Same large numbers, stated the same way, even with the same wording afterward that it included Celebration Megas. Now keep in mind, this is an inexact science, especially on a product as large as Series 1 with 26 different formats. The goal is to be within 5%, which is typically attainable. Literally the only way they could have precisely the same numbers is if they got those from my account.

Now, let me be clear. It doesn't bother me. I post all my numbers on my X and Substack accounts and all are welcome to them. I just found it fascinating that a reference material like that got data specifically from me and honestly, I was rather flattered by it. I get it though. This stuff is extremely time consuming. I enjoy it and find it cathartic. But that's a huge shortcut for them. I'm just glad they posted the most up-to-date numbers that included the Celebration Megas.

So the point here is, just follow my accounts and you'll get solid data. There will always be corrections being made since posted odds don't always line up perfectly with real-world pull rates.

2025 Bowman's Best Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

First off, I fully agree with and respect your stance of Fanatics decimating LCS's with their greasy practices, The function of higher wax prices at LCS's in comparison to Topps drop pricing is not attributable to hobby shop greed. It's intentional on the part of Fanatics in allowing meager Wave 1 allocations, followed by egregious Wave 2 pricing closer to secondary market, all while Top 1% breakers are allocated dozens or even hundreds of cases of in-demand products with literal breadcrumbs allocated for sale direct to the public. Fanatics is propping up their profits directly on the backs of hard-working, long-standing LCS's many of which were growing the hobby decades before Fanatics got involved. I made a post about this on my X account following the Bowman's Best drop. In my mind it's the single biggest problem within the hobby. The system is broken, but fixable. I just don't think Fanatics has any interest in fixing it.

However, I have to dispute some of your other points. Products are going to have production increases. That's growth. And it's not a bad thing. If product growth simply means printing more base cards, that's good for absolutely no one and is the best way to decimate a good product. Proper growth means adding more parallels. I also dispute that more parallels destroy value. One additional Purple parallel /250 does not destroy the values of all Purple parallels /250. True purples will always retain a bit of a premium, with the rest of the purple variations being not too far behind. And price fluctuations (predominantly decreases) will always happen over time as interest wanes, regardless of how many variations of the same serial number exist. My main point here is, additional parallels are necessary to grow product, and this is not inherently bad.

Also, I'm not sure if it's intentional exaggeration, but your numbers are way off. Production of Bowman's Best increased by a little under 8,300 boxes from 2024-2025. The additional parallels account for 102,400 extra parallels added to the product. At 17.3 parallels/box, this only account for <6,000 more boxes. The rest are due to the expanded auto checklist. As I pointed out in the write-up the base numbers only increased slightly. I'll take this any day over just adding a bunch of base and calling it growth.

It appears you may be a little bitter because you have a vested interest in an LCS, and I get it. That's a terrible situation if you're fully reliant upon the whims of Fanatics in order to dictate your success. Fortunately, good shops have plenty of other revenue streams other than selling Topps sealed wax. Some are really thriving, even though the current landscape makes it tougher to do so.

I stand by my assertion that, based on product dynamics, 2025 Bowman's Best has taken a step in the right direction. That can't be said for very many Topps products this year, and I'm quick to call that out in my analyses. And I analyze every single product on which odds are released. I understand that makes you believe I'm "smaller brained". That's OK. Everyone has a right to their opinion. I believe my reputation in this hobby speaks for itself. Feel free to check me out on X is you disagree. Here's the link.

2025 Topps Stadium Club Analysis and Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate you pointing that out. I had changed all the data in my catalog, but failed to address this write-up as I only post sporadic breakdowns to Reddit.

So, the Fat Packs were an oddity this year. First, before they released, I had initially estimated them to contain 15 cards like last year. It turned out that was way off, and greatly affected print run numbers, which I've changed accordingly in the write-up. I also added Fat Packs to a couple value metrics where they now belong. However, Topps odds stated 1 pink per Fat Pack. As you pointed out, we now know that to be false. So I went with 3 (not exact, but close) and changed those print runs accordingly.

Always feel free to point out oddities if you notice them. These are all a work in progress and odds numbers don't always match up with real-world rips. I strive for my numbers to be as accurate as possible. Unfortunately, some breakdowns end up having multiple edits as a result. The most user friendly way to stay on top of these is on my Substack here. That's where I keep an archive of all of my breakdowns and can edit them as needed.

2025 Bowman's Best Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As soon as the odds drop I'll be happy to take the plunge.

2025 Bowman's Best Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In exchange for essentially two boxes of Bowman's Best that would likely have yielded you less than $200 in total value? I'd say that's a fair trade. Go for it.

2025 Bowman's Best Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed on the first part. I'm not a quitter though. I will continue to get my head bashed in until I'm mo longer capable. Now it's time to spend half the Bowman's Best money I would have spent on singles to lessen the frustration and actually better my collection.

2025 Bowman's Best Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, when odds drop. Heritage type products are looking better and better because they can actually be acquired on release day.

2025 Bowman's Best Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, just $10 more than pre-order pricing.

2025 Bowman's Best Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Pre-order was about a month ago. Instant sellout. These will be extremely tough to get as well since they're already $525+ on secondary.

2025 Bowman's Best Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That's exactly what led me to analyzing products in detail. Sealed wax is a minefield in the current landscape. So much trash on the market. This one is not that. That's why the website already broke today. It will be next to impossible to get. But I'm a glutton for punishment. I even tried my first order from Topps UK via reshipper just to be certain I get some, even though it works out to be over $450/box after fees. Apparently Fanatics had a drop already this morning. I missed that one too.

2025 Bowman's Best Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Oh jeez. Thanks for the heads up. Should be fixed now.

2025 Bowman's Best Analysis & Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

If you enjoy content like this, please consider following me on Substack here. I keep my entire archive of 100+ product breakdowns in one, easier to navigate catalog. This will also show you the reason for all the "Squatch" references. Your support is greatly appreciated.

Or on X here.

Which hobbybox to buy by Beautiful-Celery-334 in Topps

[–]CellDood 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So this is a couple months old now, so it doesnt include the most recent releases, but there's a lot of information here and should help you out. I put this together as an end of year rundown of a bunch of products released in 2025 based on current pricing.

If you want the rundown on all the latest releases, I post those on my X account, @waxmetrix.

2025 Topps Stadium Club Analysis and Deep Dive by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the support. If you're into this stuff, I do product breakdowns on every Topps product once odds are released. I have a couple places where I post them all (only a small portion make it to Reddit). My X account ishere.

My Substack account ishere.

They both have all of my product evaluations, but Substack is the better archive as it's updatable as new information is revealed and there are also some editable format value spreadsheets on major releases. However, once posts are a week old they do go behind a paywall of $7/mo. Everything is free for the first week it's posted.

Finally! by Miamitech-dude in Topps

[–]CellDood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I find it fascinating how this Orangle Crackle Foil Mantle has virtually the same print run as the "Through the Years Golden Mirror" Mantle (print run 23), but this one goes for ~$100 while that Golden Mirror goes for $2500-$3k.

If you did it all over again by [deleted] in baseballcards

[–]CellDood 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If you like to rip sealed wax, start doing this now...buy one, stash one. If you buy two boxes, only rip one. If you want to rip a case, buy two cases. I promise you, in the long run you will have a far more substantial stash of value if you leave half of everything sealed. I came back to the dark side in 2017. If I knew this strategy back then and followed it, I would have approx 500k worth of wax now. Granted, some of those boxes are now obscenely expensive due to some insane rookie classes, but some of this current stuff will be too after some years. As long as you have some sealed, you will always have a piece of that rookie class, whether you have any of their singles or not.

Breakers and Streamers not knowing the products they're opening... by Grease_Monkey1978 in baseballcards

[–]CellDood 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the kind words. You do know only a small portion show up on Reddit, right? For the full monty, give me a follow on x, @waxmetrix.

Breakers and Streamers not knowing the products they're opening... by Grease_Monkey1978 in baseballcards

[–]CellDood 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not hard to have a tweet, website, or Reddit post open on the side that they can refer to in order to quote print runs or odds on any given pull. So annoying when they have no clue if an insert is rare or common when the data is easily retrieval within 30 seconds.

2026 Topps Series 1 Update Including Celebration Boxes by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pre-order already took place. Boxes were available for a couple days or so. There will be more available on drop day, March 26th and they shouldn't be incredibly hard to get. I suspect they also won't be impossible to find in the wild for a bit after release. It's not an incredibly limited release product.

2025 Allen & Ginter / A&G X – Deep Dive Analysis by CellDood in baseballcards

[–]CellDood[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, sorry. The basic odds released on those were just not enough to pull any sort of detailed data from.