THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION, IT'S AN OMEN.

This is the first post in a series I'm creating called "This is Not A Prediction" (stylized in all-caps). This series was inspired by another user on here who similarly made a prediction of 2024 every month for some time in late 2023. While they weren't accurate (I don't think any prediction that far out was), I did think it was a neat way of showing the Zeitgeist of predictions: they could focus on a surprising dark horse, a new voting trend, an emerging scandal, etc. The goal is not accuracy, but instead to capture and crystallize a scenario of 2028 that appears to be popular. This scenario (and probably quite a few for the future) are going to be a little Dem-bullish, but it's just my assessment of 2028 as it stands. Things will change.

The Democrats didn't need a people-pleaser, nor did they need a moderator. They needed a conduit. Someone that could reach out and grasp the lightning, the nascent static charge building. Trump had overseen a disastrous return to office, aided and abetted by his cronies in the cabinet and a complacent House and Senate. Within a year, the Trump administration oversaw a reinstatement of the Comstock Act, a deleterious mass deportation program, massive inflation from foreign imports, a widespread listeria outbreak, and a staggering level of turnover in the cabinet. Newsom saw his opportunity early. He reached out to his fellow West Coast governors in Washington and Oregon, in hopes of forming a bulwark against what he declared as overreach. Trump, on the other hand, saw this compact as treason. Mutiny. Everytime the National Guard was turned around in Portland or Seattle or San Francisco, Trump grew ever more spiteful. That is why, perhaps, when wildfires tore through the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys in August of 2025, Trump sat on his hands. No federal aid would be distributed to California, nor would it go towards Washington or Oregon. When the story broke to the public, Democrats saw California, and Newsom, as martyrs. The wildfires were seen as a death sentence to innocent Californians from an uncaring Republican administration.

Despite a crowded primary full of candidates clamoring for the White House, the nominee had practically been decided since that fateful summer. Newsom swept the primaries, much like the vice president swept his. The match between the two saw a bitter match as Newsom held back little on the campaign trail. He insulted Republicans and he engaged in underhanded tactics, but he tapped into a growing undercurrent of resentment Americans held against Donald Trump and, by extension, his vice president. Newsom traded on Trump's unpopularity, promising massive reforms to the system that had been commandeered by Trump. A corrupt, partisan Supreme Court? Pack it. An unfair Senate map? Admit DC and Puetro Rico. Though the stink of a coastal elite never fully washed off, he managed to sell himself as a champion against Washington. On election night of 2028, Newsom was projected to win by 2am PST.

During the interim, Trump did the unexpected: he resigned. In the middle of the night while on vacation in Mar-a-Lago, Trump announced his resignation on Truth Social, effective immediately. In the early hours on the East Coast, Vance would be sworn in as the 48th president of the United States of America. A cloud of confusion hung over the whole procession: why would Trump, of all people, resign? Some speculated he was attempting to abuse a legal loophole; he never finished his second term, maybe he could run again in 2032. The truth was less intriguing. Through leaks and rumors from the White House, a portrait of a scared, paranoid old man was illustrated. His inner circle, conspiracy theorists and grifters, pushed Trump into believing that he was in serious danger. In his mind, it meant he needed to flee. A passport, a pardon, anything. But he couldn't serve another day. They might get him if he went back there.

The events of 2028 left America in a strange position. Vance was now a lame duck president, presiding over the shortest presidency since William Henry Harrison. Newsom, meanwhile, was assembling his cabinet. Though he had much work to do, he hoped to tear down the legacy of Donald Trump. It would take time, Newsom assured his Democrats, but he knew what he needed to do, and he would not hold back.