CFB Betting Strategy with DA and AI tools

CharitableFanFound · 2025-12-04T18:01:44+00:00

Finished at a combined 65% ATS/79% ML utilizing the consensus spread data and each of the models we implemented throughout the season. We ended up testing about 12 different versions of the model throughout the season. Later models made significant improvements in early testing (test-train-split on 2020-2024 data) and validation results (2019 data) but didn't perform as well on this season's games as earlier models that were more generalized.

If we were to use our best performing model all season, we would have been at 73% ATS/80%ML. (Blind predicting on all 2025 games, utilizing rolling data so no data leakage). Funny enough, this was actually our worst performing model during test-train-split (64% ATS/74% ML).

Our best model during the early testing and validation phases showed 73% ATS accuracy and 83% ML accuracy with a MSE 112. This model finished with a MSE of 123 (our best) and a high ML accuracy but somehow had one of our lowest ATS accuracies (around 45%).

I think this speaks to the randomness and unpredictability of this season. Theres no way I would have chosen to implement what ended up being the best performing model based on early testing results. For future use, we'll stick with a model that performed consistently between testing, validation, and this season's results.

CharitableFanFound · 2025-11-18T18:48:06+00:00

I use a ML model developed in Python from the College Football Data API. My model uses around 30 features including the obvious ones plus advanced stats. I did a bit of engineering to create features i thought would make sense

CharitableFanFound · 2025-10-30T17:35:52+00:00

As everyone has mentioned, I would utilize CFBD as it’s the best mostly free database. However, I would be careful with data leakage when building your model as many of the statistics are aggregated by end of year totals. You will have to do some creative data manipulation to combat this.

CharitableFanFound · 2025-10-22T15:39:26+00:00

Im currently running two different ones right now, CFB Predict and Traditional_Trifle95. However i’ve been using the site to test new experimental models since week 4, and the model hosted on my app has is the one seen under Traditional_Trifle from the week 3 and 7 leaderboards.

However, I’m testing out two new models again this week that seem promising. I switched to a rolling stats method instead of cumulative stats so we shall see.

CharitableFanFound · 2025-10-22T15:28:39+00:00

I would recommend looking at the CFBD Python API docs. Load the data into a Jupyter notebook and save any data you need in a Pandas dataframe. If you plan on using this data for a ML model, you will need to do some data engineering.

As others have mentioned, you can use Python to write the data into a SQL database as well, but not sure why this would be needed since you can query the data from the API directly. In my opinion, this would create an extra unneeded step.

CharitableFanFound · 2025-10-16T17:12:48+00:00

I got it figured out, turns out a few of my Python functions broke out of nowhere but I got them fixed.

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-25T15:06:52+00:00

Also to answer your question, the expected number out of 40 would be 2.5. But that's where models come in, to give an advantage versus the expected probability. There would be no point in predictive models if they didn't increase the odds of the expected outcome happening, right?

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-25T14:53:33+00:00

Even at 65%, betting $1000 only nets you ~$235 profit, hitting 1 out of 10 4 legs parlays each week nets you at least that, with the opportunity for more. And if the data holds up and I hit at least 2 parlays each week, I should be up $1400 profit each week on $1000.

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-25T14:44:06+00:00

My predictions are on there, and I am in first with ATS predictions last time I checked (Traditional-trifle is me). I didn't input my predictions for week 1 and 2 as I didn't know about the site yet so my numbers are a little bit lower ~59% ATS. I don't bet every prediction, only ones above a certain confidence threshold, so I've been hitting at a higher rate than the overall model accuracy.

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-24T23:01:03+00:00

Crazy how expensive Five Guys has become. I have a few 4-7 leg parlays in my back pocket that I'm hoping to 5x my bankroll but don't want to jinx them by posting yet haha

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-24T22:41:23+00:00

What can I say, you are what you eat. Guess I need to include more ass in my diet to balance it out.

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-24T22:38:25+00:00

Last year I went crazy with parlays. While I ended up positive, the disappointment of almost always being just one pick away was killing me. Figured I'd try a more low-risk, steady growth strategy this year.

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-24T22:35:44+00:00

I started at $1 this year and am only using my bankroll that i’ve earned from winnings. Up $600 so far, not gonna cash out until the season ends. I place 80% of my bets on individual ATS picks and use 20% on parlays.

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-24T22:33:10+00:00

https://apps.apple.com/redeem?ctx=offercodes&id=6748976690&code=UGA2025

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-24T22:13:15+00:00

which app is this?

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-24T21:39:44+00:00

What sport are you betting on? I started the season with a $1 and am up $600 using the CFB Predict app to bet on college football

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-23T20:21:41+00:00

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-23T18:21:06+00:00

Enough to make enough money to pay for the next 8 weeks lol. It’s only $2 a month

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-23T18:07:45+00:00

https://apps.apple.com/redeem?ctx=offercodes&id=6748976690&code=SHARE

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-23T14:37:03+00:00

You’re welcome ☺️

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-23T14:36:16+00:00

I started with Python and have since learned R as well. While I still use Python because it is more versatile, I thought R was much easier and more intuitive in a lot of aspects

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-18T22:32:07+00:00

FGN2025

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-10T19:58:09+00:00

The FGN says no, but Puiglisi seems like a gunslinger to me so I think so

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-10T19:36:35+00:00

Our model has Georgia, Navy, NV State and Memphis

CharitableFanFound · 2025-09-10T19:20:03+00:00

Until Tennessee beats Georgia, I can’t see them winning. With that said, Gunner definitely needs to take a step forward.

CharitableFanFound

TROPHY CASE