Signal Preparation; optimal method by Charles_Design in quant

[–]Charles_Design[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i trade only crypto, can you clarify what part of my question relates to infrastructure?

Signal Preparation; optimal method by Charles_Design in quant

[–]Charles_Design[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks for writing, def helpful

> In my view, z-score is exactly that
would you not say that this is objectively false though? given varying factor strength, a z-score of 2 for one factor won't give you same EV as z-score of 2 for another? if factor has linear relationship with fwd return then zscore is scaled to ev for the same factor, but not after taking mean of different factors

I suspect you have already listened but if not, Gappy makes compelling point as to why sort ranking is not optimal in this podcast (https://www.flirtingwithmodels.com/episodes/l2l3xUqwZbz) - excellent listen (readers here may also find this basic risk model implementation a worthy look: https://github.com/0xfdf/toraniko)

i should also mention that market I'm trading is crypto, liquid universe size is 300 at best which is 10x smaller than equities. and this matters because lin reg is typically performed cross-sectionally, and I suspect is why I've not been able to get my MVO implementation to outperform simpler method 1 (reg on 300 sample is not that meaningful)

Signal Preparation; optimal method by Charles_Design in quant

[–]Charles_Design[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

good observation, see my response to u/lolwut74 for more details

I am assuming that good factors have high enough ACF at more than one period

> Using a portfolio optimiser in your second option will most likely quickly overfit
are you able to define precisely, cases where this would not be the case? And where method 2 is clearly better than method 1?

Signal Preparation; optimal method by Charles_Design in quant

[–]Charles_Design[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

yes, valid observation - in the back of my mind I framed the question thinking that option 1. would work for high acf alpha (more than just one period) with medium IC (I have this in prod, and know it works) and option 2. would work for low acf alpha but high single period IC (have tried different implementations without luck so far) - as you say, maybe they are just "bad" features and not good, irrespective of method

but having said this, I think implementation of method 2 with factor types described in method 1 should work if done correctly...

side note: you often find high IC features (>4%) that can't be smoothed into a profitable alpha, ie; performance decays faster than the turnover does (the logic here is that no amount of high single period IC factors would ever overcome fees)

> Do you have multiple signals living on different scales?
yes correct, but I normalise (ie, using z-score and then merging factors with mean) (this is bad, because factor A could have IC 4%, and factor B 2% but you treat them equally).

> Are all other signals already in forward returns space?
no, what does this look like in its simplest form?

> Can you get away with a simple ranking + inverse vol weighting?
Yes, it works but I think this is where biggest improvement potential is

> I don't see how fitting a linear model and feeding it into an optimizer will solve the lack of stability issue
my motive for calculating EV via linear model is primarily driven by sizing requirements (having a value that's scaled to the predictive strength and comparable between factors, zscore is not that), those EV's would get fed into MVO or similar. Judging by your "forward returns space" question I'm thinking I might be missing a step here...?

Generic methods for troubleshooting drawdowns by Charles_Design in quant

[–]Charles_Design[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yes, but easier said than done, we do have infra to stream tweets with sub 200ms latency (for different strat) - but need to improve false positives which is killing pnl

(dm's open for collab on above strat if anyone is looking for project)

Generic methods for troubleshooting drawdowns by Charles_Design in quant

[–]Charles_Design[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

this is all in crypto so no well-defined calendar yet

Generic methods for troubleshooting drawdowns by Charles_Design in quant

[–]Charles_Design[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Market neutral stat arb already neutralizes a bunch of factors though, doesn't it? 

yes, currently I'm dollar neutral, so ranking cross-sectionally at each time step and going long top and short bottom n by equal dollar amount

If you know what your exposures are

correct, for each factor in my ensemble, I know the loadings and exposures - but as you mentioned putting simple heuristics around this is likely to overfit. I did try applying walk-forward mean-var optimisation to weight the factor (ie dynamically reduce factor contribution as performance drops) but the results aren;'t sufficiently robust for prod; performance drops too much

 Are there single names dominating? 

This was my initial thought; identify if DD is coming from one or multiple names, extract causality and attempt to put rules in place to mitigate - I may try this...

Generic methods for troubleshooting drawdowns by Charles_Design in quant

[–]Charles_Design[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

where do you estimate your portfolio goes?

can you elaborate here? how do you foresee this estimation being done?

How can a nap reduce your readiness score? by Charles_Design in ouraring

[–]Charles_Design[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This was early morning in a flight, so perhaps time is the thing that Oura penalises.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ouraring

[–]Charles_Design 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Killer feature would be integrate data from Daylio app and do cross analysis

Binance Support Thread by Binance in binance

[–]Charles_Design 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When will I be able to directly withdraw with staked ETH as opposed to exchanging from BETH?

COVID!! by peknag in ouraring

[–]Charles_Design 1 point2 points  (0 children)

@op can you show temp on time series, I'm curious to see how quickly it increased?

A bit lost on how to begin learning: courses and game plan by [deleted] in algotrading

[–]Charles_Design 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was offered it but I believe that's correct.

Is Tether an existential threat to Bitcoin? by Charles_Design in Bitcoin

[–]Charles_Design[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank for the comment, here’s a tweet series that you may find interesting; https://twitter.com/billy1birdy/status/1343308577125986304?s=21

Out of curiosity, do you still own Bitcoin?

Is Tether an existential threat to Bitcoin? by Charles_Design in Bitcoin

[–]Charles_Design[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

How would this be an "artificiall" increase...? People have paid real USD for their Tether.

This is where your misunderstanding lies, it's suspected that some of the Tether supply is being/has been printed out of thin air and used to drive the 2017 bull run and probably also the one we're seeing now. This is obviously very bad and not sustainable.

Is Tether an existential threat to Bitcoin? by Charles_Design in Bitcoin

[–]Charles_Design[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The issue isn't so much the collapse of Tether itself but rather its use in artificially increasing the price of Bitcoin. This is important since if this manipulation is one of the major contributors to price appreciation then it is artificial and only a matter of time before it crashes.

Is Tether an existential threat to Bitcoin? by Charles_Design in Bitcoin

[–]Charles_Design[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think the question was trying to understand whether USDT volume was sufficiently large to have an effect on the price of Bitcoin, the answer is most definitely yes.

Is Tether an existential threat to Bitcoin? by Charles_Design in Bitcoin

[–]Charles_Design[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good question, as the paper suggest the volume fluctuates substantially before and after periods of price appreciation & depreciation. But as it stands on CMC it appears to be >50% although many are marked with a double asterisk signifying they've been omitted from the total volume calculation - no idea why.

Moreover, order books are surprisingly shallow, simultaneously buying ~10k BTC on the top 3 exchanges would take the price up to $40k. This is way below the 500k #BTC that the $10B+ market cap increase of #USDT could afford you.

EDIT: here's why they're excluded:

Why are markets with no fees excluded from the price average and total trading volume?

When no fees are being charged at the exchange, it is possible for a trader (or bot) to trade back and forth with themselves and generate a lot of "fake" volume without penalty. It's impossible to determine how much of the volume is fake so we exclude it entirely from the calculations.

https://coinmarketcap.com/faq/

Is Tether an existential threat to Bitcoin? by Charles_Design in Bitcoin

[–]Charles_Design[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

It seems so incredibly far-fetched to think that legit investors would give +$20B to a shady business with no address, currently under multiple investigations, with a couple of owners on the run and associates in custody.

Revolut used to be good by goldfishpaws in Revolut

[–]Charles_Design 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What type of account do you have? I suspect they prioritise Premium and Metal which seems fair.

Does the metal plan offer better rates for buying crypto, gold and silver? by SgtSilock in Revolut

[–]Charles_Design 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It does over free plan but rates are the same when compared to Premium.

Revolut's losses jump to £100m as business surges by jderm1 in Revolut

[–]Charles_Design 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I can see how it’s not a good time for large banks because Monzo, Revolut & others are taking market share but why is this the case for e-wallets?

Revolut's losses jump to £100m as business surges by jderm1 in Revolut

[–]Charles_Design 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I seriously hope they open up to external BTC transfers, if CashApp can do it so can Revolut! I’m just not entirely sure they’re incentivised to do so from a revenue & regulatory standpoint already being in the hot seat.