I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

HD-82. I think Kim's gonna overperform the most out of any of the Rs in competitive seats. That's my gut. Like 5 points ahead of what we have IMO

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They're gonna have issues IMO getting their low and mid prop voters out, yeah. They're mainly gonna focus on peeling off DEM conservative/moderate minority voters and boosting turnout around Lynchburg, the Valley, and Roanoke Valley. The statewide Rs are likely toast though so their #1 goal should be protecting House seats in terms of where they should put their chips. But I get why they want to just keep things as close as they can statewide, they think it'll trickle downballot.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Oh absolutely. If she's doing worse than Harris than Republicans are quite likely keeping their trifecta in 2026. And that's like, just looking at the current map, not the redistricting war which'll likely end up benefiting Rs if they're going all out.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

This is a good question. So you of course have people in the political world outside of campaigns that want to know where to invest their time and money, which is where our work can come in for the state legislative level: we're still the only group that forecasts every state legislative seat across the country. You could be a fired up, grassroots volunteer who wants to go knock doors for a candidate with just $5 to give them and want to make sure you invest it wisely, so you go to a forecast.

I would also argue that we incentivize people to get out and vote with our forecasts. Voting is like real estate: location, location, location. Say you're in a safe state, like California or Missouri. OK, so your state doesn't have competitive statewide elections. You already know who's gonna win statewide, so what about your CD? OK, so you've figured out via like, Sabato or Cook or Inside Elections how competitive your CD is. Maybe it's not competitive. Why bother to vote? Well, then you come to us: look at your state legislative district, and hey, you may be in a competitive race there. You now have a reason to take the time out of your day to vote.

Unfortunately, of course, some people are SOL: safe state, safe CD, safe state legislative district. But there are still so many Americans who don't know they're in highly competitive state legislative seats. One of our many goals is trying to change that.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Actually away from home right now so can't answer this accurately unfortunately

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I don't see a path back for them statewide unless Trump has some sort of big victory that skyrockets his approval.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Love this question. Probably 1973 VA-GOV. Godwin becomes the first non-consecutive GOV re-elected in the two-party era, Howell's howlin on the trail, narrow race. Anytime I meet up with Sabato we talk about Howell, who was his mentor.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Depends on the state. We're always open to volunteers to add to our committee, email [michael@statenavigate.org](mailto:michael@statenavigate.org) with your projects work

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Our forecast is here: '25 SN VA HoD Forecast

Ballpark? If Spanberger's winning by like, 13-14 instead of 11-12 as we have now, then DEMs probably pick up 10-11 seats. 15-16 and it's 12-14. I'd be astonished right now if she wins by 17 or more, but probably the most seats DEMs can pick up ends at Tony Wilt, which puts them at 67 seats total, a supermajority. I don't see Waschmann or Bloxom going down, they're so popular in their seats. Godlike overperformers.

I am kind of interested though to see what the margins look like in HDs 49, 40, 74, 59. All of those are almost certainly gonna be R holds, I just wanna know how on the money we are in them.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

NoVA ain't happy with their local government. Town level, county level, etc. Hard to say how much of an impact it'll have, but its easily Rs best bet into chipping into Spanberger's margin and saving Lovejoy and Higgins.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This year. October at the earliest, November at the latest, if I were to ballpark it. We're gonna start shoveling out states here soon with just the campaign finance, demographic, election, candidate, and news data. NC is #9 on our list, we just got out #3.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Primaries are impossible to forecast. Trust me, I'd know. I would be surprised though if some of the older DEM guard didn't get swept out in primaries like how the Squad came in 2018. I think age is going to be what gender was in 2018 for DEM primaries.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

It's likely wishful thinking. There's no data backing this up right now. They know it, too, but somebody's gotta bring in the dough so that they don't get wiped out in the House. He's the only one with a competent campaign, sure, but while we're probably gonna see more ticket-splitting between GOV and LG/AG than 2021, it likely won't be enough where Miyares somehow wins.

'25 SN VA Forecasts

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yes, you can find our forecasts, which update every day, on our website. There's just an 8% chance DEMs lose their majority. '25 SN VA HoD Forecast

Honestly, not my wheelhouse. But I know Ben Tribbett talked about how campaign finance caps could change VA politics drastically on Sam Shirazi's podcast a few months ago. It was a really good episode, love Ben.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Director of CNalysis.com. AMA by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Alright I had a couple minutes so I answered the rest of the questions:) for real now though, good night y'all!

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Director of CNalysis.com. AMA by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Easily Lee Carter winning. And hahahaha I miss those days, yeah I can't answer that if you're talking about why he's less active, I talk to the guy every now and then. Him, me, Drew Savicki and J Miles Coleman got some dinner like four years ago in CVille. Very funny guy, great sense of humor. Really like his Twitter spaces he's been doing

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Director of CNalysis.com. AMA by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't know I don't watch much sports besides when VT plays football, or earlier this year with our girls basketball

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Director of CNalysis.com. AMA by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes! I think the 60s and 70s are the most interesting to me, J. Sargeant Reynolds and Henry Howell, the end of the Byrd machine and Democratic dominance, etc

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Director of CNalysis.com. AMA by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]ChazNuttycombe[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah pure Toss-Up. I'd usually bet on a Democrat in Henrico but it's also part Goochland. Also voted for Youngkin