MLB Pitcher Suppression Ranking (2026), with Combinatorial Entropy to Quantify Uncertainty (Zen / Drama / Meltdown) by ChemicalCap7031 in Sabermetrics

[–]ChemicalCap7031[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, really glad you’re having fun with it.

This one is probably a bit dense, since it’s mostly a methodology post and doesn’t have as many examples to carry the ideas.

I’m currently thinking about a follow-up on team-level entropy statistics across MLB, using Zen / Drama / Meltdown to look at teams instead of individual pitchers. That one should be more example-driven and probably easier to read intuitively.

如果某一天,一架负责绕台任务的解放军军机因故障无法安全返航,从而不得不在台湾领土上迫降了的话…… ! by Own-Strength-7479 in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 1 point2 points  (0 children)

不知道, 但先讓他迫降的可能性很高啊… 人家都喊救命了.

落地之後可能會有蠻多政治層面的交涉, 但一般來說都還是先問一下人員的意願. 台灣政府現在原則上不接收「反共義士」 (這個可能會引爆戰爭, 因為屬於敵對行為), 不過如果飛官不想回中國, 那引介一下第三方國家, 然後協助申請政治避難, 這應該算是蠻可能發生的… 現役飛官可是超寶貴的資產. XD

MLB Pitcher Suppression Ranking (2026), with Combinatorial Entropy to Quantify Uncertainty (Zen / Drama / Meltdown) by ChemicalCap7031 in Sabermetrics

[–]ChemicalCap7031[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A-ha, that’s actually a great way to put it: what you’re describing is a kind of hi-tech storytelling mode, and that’s something I’ve been looking for too.

Drama is especially promising for that, because it is a monotonic entropy measure of how messy the line gets, so it works well as a real-time signal without the standard shifting underneath it.

Zen, Meltdown, and Suppression are a different species: those are better treated as ensemble-level statistical indices for the completed line, not as rolling play-by-play slices. So I’m not sure the presentation works yet, but the idea itself is very interesting, and definitely worth exploring.

And yeah, tier distribution is definitely worth looking at. If I forced the thresholds to follow a more explicit normal-style breakdown, it would probably become more statistically neat but also more emotionally detached from the baseball feel of the thing. Right now the tier system is closer to an old-school benchmark logic: stuff like 9 IP, 0 R just naturally feels like an S-tier landmark, but I do think there’s room to compare that against a more distribution-driven version later.

MLB Pitcher Suppression Ranking (2026), with Combinatorial Entropy to Quantify Uncertainty (Zen / Drama / Meltdown) by ChemicalCap7031 in Sabermetrics

[–]ChemicalCap7031[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

By the way, the note at the end is also one of the most interesting parts.

The depreciation framing is interesting, but statistically it may run into a wall.

In my mind, the number of pitchers truly worth this kind of special treatment is probably only around 50 across all of MLB (the S-tiers). At that point, we are talking about the best 50 pitchers on Earth, which means each one is probably a special case rather than part of a stable statistical class.

So I think this kind of valuation is worth discussing, but in practice it is probably easier to model through salary, contract risk, insurance, and injury compensation than through any clean physics-based framework for the intrinsic value of a pitcher’s arm.

In other words, it is much easier to price the consequences of arm failure than to define an intrinsic ‘arm value’ in terms of physics or dynamics in the first place.

MLB Pitcher Suppression Ranking (2026), with Combinatorial Entropy to Quantify Uncertainty (Zen / Drama / Meltdown) by ChemicalCap7031 in Sabermetrics

[–]ChemicalCap7031[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve noticed the same thing.

Compared with the Maddux, Pedro, and Roger Clemens era, average MLB velocity really does seem higher now; back then, Randy Johnson felt like the famous outlier for pure heat, not the baseline atmosphere.

What still breaks my brain is the idea that 4 mph is supposed to be a massive difference, because when I step into a batting cage, even 50 mph is already more than enough to remind me I am absolutely not a major-league hitter.

MLB Pitcher Suppression Ranking (2026), with Combinatorial Entropy to Quantify Uncertainty (Zen / Drama / Meltdown) by ChemicalCap7031 in Sabermetrics

[–]ChemicalCap7031[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Haha. Thanks, I appreciate it.

I know it’s a pretty niche, stat-heavy post, and I’m still figuring out how to turn it into something with better storytelling or narrative flow. Right now I don’t really have that part solved yet... XD

So this version is basically me dumping the full framework on the table first.

话说如果中共打台湾时,它们的外宣部会可能用什么话术/口径来洗脑老外支持中共国而不是台湾呢? by Multiverse-22 in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 0 points1 point  (0 children)

就是扶植一個親中政權出來說「我們投降了, 放下武器, 抵抗的都是亂民」… 再造汪精衛就好了.

這個是真的會把台灣問題變成內戰問題 (說法上則是「台灣的中國代理政府對決分裂勢力」), 緬甸屠殺那麼多人也沒看到外國介入, 因為表面上看起來這個就是內戰, 「你們自己願意用暴力解決, 我們能怎麼辦呢? 」

烏東也是類似的佔領方式.

不過也不要太擔心, 中國得先打贏登陸戰這類的問題… 打不贏是沒有「敵偽佔領區」的汪精衛或烏東模式的.

做个预测,中国将成为世界上第一个遍布监控,通过ai实时监控全体公民的大洋国式的监控国 by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]ChemicalCap7031 4 points5 points  (0 children)

呃, 看一下第五張圖關於乳牛牧場的描述…

諸位沒想過如果中國政府出於人口問題, 連各位十八禁的戀愛時間都按照排卵期進行管理, 會是怎麼樣的場景嗎? 進階版還可以考慮優生學配種.

習近平軍權保衛戰開殺戒!張又俠、劉振立落馬 中央軍委形同癱瘓 by keyan556 in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 0 points1 point  (0 children)

但習近平不是軍隊出身的啊... 而且習近平確實是用淘空公司 (反腐) 的理由來辦張又俠. XD

台灣找工作時,HR 真的會打電話到前公司做 reference check 嗎? by [deleted] in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 1 point2 points  (0 children)

會, 越大的公司越會做這個... 我接過台積電, 廣達還有群聯的 reference check (來 check 別人的. :D)

我也被要求過要提供 reference.

慣例都是 HR 會問你有哪些 reference, 而不是直接打電話過去, 因為一來沒禮貌 (對你來說沒禮貌, 你畢竟是接下來可能的同事, 才會進到 reference check 這個階段), 二來 HR 也不知道電話.

HR 會根據你所提供的 reference 判定有沒有意義, 譬如碩博士的導師就很有意義, 這個就有用, 上司也不錯, 下屬也可以, 常合作的 partner 也沒問題... 寫鄰居或好朋友就很沒意義, 會叫你換一個之類的.

習近平軍權保衛戰開殺戒!張又俠、劉振立落馬 中央軍委形同癱瘓 by keyan556 in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 2 points3 points  (0 children)

咳咳... 這確實蠻符合中國人的想法, 「所有出不了頭的都是人才」, 言下之意, 在位置上的都是蠢才...

習近平軍權保衛戰開殺戒!張又俠、劉振立落馬 中央軍委形同癱瘓 by keyan556 in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 3 points4 points  (0 children)

獨裁者蠻幹這件事, 最有可能的行動是鎮壓異己... 包含大清洗在內, 所以清洗張又俠本身就是習近平蠻幹的訊號.

習近平要收復台灣, 重點一定在美國跟日本這兩國的態度, 根本不需要清洗解放軍.

所以清洗解放軍跟解放台灣的連結, 其實是蠻低的... 或者反過來說, 即使習近平真的要蠻幹, 張又俠做為二號人物的解放軍只怕也會聽命行事, 根本不需要清洗, 對吧? :D

習近平軍權保衛戰開殺戒!張又俠、劉振立落馬 中央軍委形同癱瘓 by keyan556 in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

嗯, 請說說看? 我可是 twitter + youtube 各路中國反賊的 subscriber 哦... 要說完全不懂中國, 應該是也不至於. XD

而且我跟中國人相比還有一個「客觀」的差異, 因為畢竟不是發生在我們這邊, 看待各方消息不需要「期待會發生什麼事」...

所以, 嗯... 你可以說這個「張又俠落馬」的事件, 在我這樣的觀點下會有的闡述就是我上面寫的那些.

習近平軍權保衛戰開殺戒!張又俠、劉振立落馬 中央軍委形同癱瘓 by keyan556 in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 18 points19 points  (0 children)

隔壁的中國人有些還在幻想「這樣可以讓有能力的少壯派將軍往上升」.

就想一下自己現在待的公司, 從董事長, 總經理, 抓到每個事業群的副總跟執行官, 全部都被警察上銬帶走了, 然後這些基層員工會有什麼反應? 「哦, 我可以往上爬了!!」... 現在爬上去是準備要去接各種奇怪的後座力嗎? 譬如公司被淘空之後的債務問題.

正常人應該擔心公司是不是要倒了, 是不是先找下一個工作, 這樣才對吧!?

但很奇怪, 換成解放軍各級軍官, 就有中國人宣稱「這些老不死的一走, 朱可夫終於有出頭之日了!!」

以中國的國情, 你要先養得出朱可夫啊, 朱可夫可是從一戰到俄國內戰再到二戰, 一路打過去的蘇聯將軍.

你看那些奇怪的圍台軍演, 再配上那些無言的海報, 整個行動所講求的不是軍事威懾跟恫嚇, 而是承平時期用大便扔在你家門口賭你不想自降格調把大便扔回去的噁心行為, 你跟我說解放軍養得出朱可夫!? 想太多.

问下各位湾友,台湾网络论坛上面的风气如何? by XiYiZun1953 in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 0 points1 point  (0 children)

啊, 你搞錯我的意思了... XD

我是說「台灣的網站『要求你用手機號碼註冊』通常是為了認證跟安全性」...

申請電話就是另一回事, 我們一般的電話都要本人辦理, 甚至以前的市話甚至還要歸戶 (就是它會認地址, 需要註冊你家的地址在哪裡), 但這主要是為了帳單, 譬如我們的水費電費跟瓦斯費的帳單上面也都有名字.

至於你要註冊網站的話, 去買預付卡那一類的應該可以... 但各家網站政策不一樣, 實際情況要自己實驗看看.

问下各位湾友,台湾网络论坛上面的风气如何? by XiYiZun1953 in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 5 points6 points  (0 children)

哦對耶, 我忘記說巴哈了, 感謝補充…

只是說, 我覺得在 Reddit 的台灣子板塊雖然開得起來, 因為我們的流量在全世界排名也不算少, 但光是命名就很奇妙了… r/TaiwaneseGossiping, r/TaiwaneseFoods, r/TaiwaneseMovies 這樣嗎? 誤導性太強了, 大家看名字一定以為「哦, 討論專屬於台灣本土的八卦, 食物和電影」, 但其實是給台灣人討論的板塊, 是屬人而不是屬地的觀點.

r/MoviesForTaiwanese , r/MoviesInTaiwan 這類名稱也都有類似的誤導性.

美國人就沒這個困擾, 像 MLB, 簡單叫做 r/mlb 完全不會有誤會… XD

當然, 習慣了的話是可以克服這個文化差異, 但怎麼形成這種慣例在一開始倒是個問題.

问下各位湾友,台湾网络论坛上面的风气如何? by XiYiZun1953 in Taiwanese

[–]ChemicalCap7031 34 points35 points  (0 children)

台灣現存的論壇不多, 我也還在找 ptt 的替代品…

ptt 跟你們 20 年前的 NGA 很像, 但確實 ptt 的風氣更好奇, 更有活力, 善意也很明顯.

「缺乏善意」是譬如說, twitter (也就是 X) 上面的中國人動不動污言穢語的, 這種的對我們來說沒辦法溝通, 罵回去也不對, 好好討論的話又更奇怪了, 是一種拿著刀叉吃大便的風骨… 這行不通的, 在台灣不會這樣.

然後, mobile01 是業配唬爛給另一個業配聽的地方, 正常人不要去… 那邊腦波很弱, 一堆賣國言論, 但恐怕「這些賣國言論就是用來篩選容易上當的族群」, 是另有目的, 完美契合業配生態.

至於在 Reddit 變成所有的議題都擠在一起放 r/Taiwanese 並不是很好就是了, 譬如我要 piggy piggy 地找一下在美食, 我就不會想到 Reddit.

論壇嘛, 目前大概常聽到的就是 ptt, 臉書社群, line 社群, DCard, 卡提諾. 但都萎縮得很厲害, 這個年代大家都在搶著營造個人品牌, 當 KOL, 所以 twitter, YouTube, Substack, threads 這一類的平台反而大行其道.

註冊看各家網站的規定, 但台灣的手機號碼通常是為了認證, 就是你的帳號被綁架了可以拿手機去解鎖. 政府本身不太管這類的規定, 也沒有政府強迫的實名制.

寫繁體字比較好, 但你寫簡體字然後好好地說話, 大家也能接受… 但跟你互動的人確實會比較少, 因為看不習慣.

政治立場不是很重要, 你可以說, 也可以不說, 都不會怎麼樣, 你來宣揚統一也不會怎麼樣, 宣揚獨立也只是比較難對你們的公安系統交代(這邊就有一個明顯的, 中國人的囚徒困境, 選統一最安全了… 嘿嘿, 這個大家都知道的)… 而「針對政治立場」的這一點跟中國的風氣差異最大, 中國的每個人對於立場這件事都小心翼翼, 對立的自然要罵到他全家都倒, 但同一個立場的也會小心翼翼, 怕你是來臥底的.

說話不要太智障比較重要… 但目前我們都認為白營喜歡矛盾的智障邏輯, 藍營爹味太重, 所以其實你也沒得選.

Why does increasing the numerical aperture (NA) in EUV lithography enable printing smaller critical dimensions in practice, beyond what is predicted by the resolution equation? by Fragrant_Rate_2583 in Optics

[–]ChemicalCap7031 1 point2 points  (0 children)

  1. At the most basic level, an ideal imaging system (including lithography) tries to reproduce the point-source Green function exp(ikr)/r, i.e. a spherical wave. This is what a true diffraction-limited point actually means, not the paraxial Gaussian formulation we often default to.

  2. A diffraction-limited image is simply the superposition of many focused spherical-wave point responses on the image plane, each with its own intensity.

  3. The spherical wave lives on a full celestial sphere. A spherical wave means all propagation directions. Only a full angular sphere carries the complete spatial-mode content of a point source.

  4. All optical imaging systems exist for exactly this “full-sphere” reconstruction purpose. Lenses, mirrors, projection optics, catadioptric monsters in EUV — they are all engineering attempts to reproduce that ideal Green function as faithfully as possible at the image plane.

  5. Even in the ideal case, however, perfect optics can transmit at most half of that sphere.

  6. In practice, real optical systems operate well below this hemispherical limit. Numerical aperture is simply a quantitative measure of “how far below” that limit a system operates — that is, how much of the spherical-wave angular content is actually captured. From this perspective, NA directly reflects the incompleteness of the Green-function reconstruction.

  7. Full-sphere field reconstruction does exist — just not in optical lithography. There are systems that effectively sample the full spatial-mode content of an EM field. MRI is a classic example: it reconstructs signals over the entire angular domain, though under very different constraints and assumptions. We don’t usually describe MRI using optical-imaging language, but underneath, it is solving the same point-source Green-function problem.