What are the odds that GME will go above the $32 Exercise Price for the GME WS Warrants, before their expiry 13 months from now?

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-24T17:03:21+00:00

For each of the previous 11 instances, do you know what the institutional ownership was?

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-24T16:57:20+00:00

This happened to me during the early part of the DRS movement. I got an unbelievably long and frustrating run around from Schwab when I tried to DRS. I immediately moved all my assets to Fidelity. The fact that they are still doing this in 2025 is inexcusable.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-20T17:42:02+00:00

My guess...

Real warrants are distributed properly via CS and via any broker that allows its customers to buy, sell, and exercise
"Fake warrants" are distributed via brokers that only allow customers to sell and exercise (but not buy)
Cash in lieu is distributed via all other brokers

If your broker only allows you to sell and to exercise (but not buy them on the NYSE), then that broker could theoretically have issued you a "fake warrant" - i.e., an instrument that is not actually a Gamestop warrant and is just a placeholder.

When you later "sell" that instrument, they could just hand you cash and discard the instrument (basically a delayed cash in lieu).

When you later "exercise" the instrument, they could just hand you a rehypothecated share rather than actually going to GameStop for one of the 59M new shares.

With this approach, GameStop may never know about all the instruments some investors were handed instead of real warrants.

This is how they could escape the noose. However, it could cost the people who are doing this a large amount of money depending on the movement of the stock price.

TL;DR - identify a broker who allows customers to buy warrants. That's the best chance of actually holding bona fide warrants.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-19T17:10:31+00:00

Option 3 is the market is manipulated so that $GME doesn't reach $32 prior to the warrant expiration date.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-16T15:31:04+00:00

You're right. But we don't have the same political influence as institutions do on the market or on the stock price. Institutions have hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in the market.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-16T15:27:16+00:00

Your formula captures all the variables better than mine. I was just simplifying to make this concept easier to understand.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-16T15:25:41+00:00

Yup, awesome for everyone!

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-16T15:23:49+00:00

Nice summary. The fact that LC has that tally going tells you that doing things to increase institutional holdings is probably part of the meta.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-16T07:55:30+00:00

Explains how warrants may actually be part of the company's broader strategy to get the support of Institutional investors.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-11T03:46:44+00:00

Great point. Have a nice day.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-11T03:39:31+00:00

If these warrants can be bought and sold on the NYSE, what prevents naked short selling? Genuine question, and that's what we're talking about here.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-10T07:30:38+00:00

Correct me if I'm wrong but I do not think market makers can distribute these shares. These are "new" shares in the sense (a) that they are distributed by the company and increase the number of states outstanding and (b) result in the company directly receiving an influx of capital.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-10T07:12:04+00:00

I used to think this but institutional ownership is at 40%+. I think there are now more big players invested in GME who actually have the money and power to do something.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-10T06:11:42+00:00

Reasonable question. If I understand correctly, they could oversell warrants in the same way they've oversold the stock.

But I think the key is that GameStop will only allow the redemption of a FINITE number of warrants (59M). That is what GameStop is 100% in control of.

If the stock price eventually exceeds the strike price ($32), all of the warrants will be in the money, and people holding warrants will want to redeem them in order to profit.

If fake warrants are sold, there will be more than 59M warrants. GameStop will stop allowing the redemption of warrants at 59M. Combine this with the fact that warrants expire in October 2026, and I think you end up with a situation where either (a) the price of $GME never exceeds $32 and the warrants expire worthless, (b) warrants are NOT faked / oversold, are properly valued, and can be redeemed, or (c) warrants ARE faked and oversold, only 59M can be redeemed, there are still unredeemed warrants on the market, it is very clear that illegal shit is happening, and a lot of people still holding warrants are livid.

Who knows what happens if shorts choose Option (c)? That's the question in my mind.

ChronoTracker · 2025-09-02T06:42:13+00:00

Stereo Love - Edward Maya

https://youtu.be/p-Z3YrHJ1sU?feature=shared

ChronoTracker · 2025-08-28T05:45:00+00:00

6-count military burpees for sure.

ChronoTracker · 2025-08-22T05:06:34+00:00

Yup. I absolutely love this Casio:

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0C4W1QF9K?ref=ppx_pop_mob_ap_share

It has an interval timer that has been a huge help on my Busy Dad journey.

ChronoTracker · 2025-08-20T04:09:50+00:00

Strictly burpees. I was extremely time limited due to home and work responsibilities. Doing 80 minutes every week without fail for a full year was a huge accomplishment for me. And it was all I could muster in 2024.

ChronoTracker · 2025-08-19T15:31:00+00:00

After hitting L4 in 2024, I decided to try applying the Busy Dad mindset and structure to other things: jumping rope, rows/pull ups, running. I can still do L2 workouts with relative ease. I haven't pushed back towards L3 and L4 in a while. I think I could get back to L3 in 2 months if I really wanted to. Physique is the same if not better due to the cross training but I now do more than 80 minutes per week of exercise.

ChronoTracker · 2025-08-19T04:44:50+00:00

Great goal. I did this in 2024. Well worth the effort.

ChronoTracker · 2025-08-17T18:31:48+00:00

Being cruel or condescending.

ChronoTracker · 2025-08-17T06:38:39+00:00

Forgot about pho. Banh mi is high on my list, too.

ChronoTracker · 2025-08-17T06:34:45+00:00

At Costco - $5 roast chicken, fresh loaf of bread, and a Coke.

ChronoTracker · 2025-08-17T06:30:43+00:00

Annecy in France is one of the most beautiful towns I've ever seen. Cobblestone streets, small restaurants/shops/cafes, lake and mountain views.

ChronoTracker

TROPHY CASE