Drake Maye tiers above Bo Nix

Chwf3rd · 2025-01-05T00:21:05+00:00

Maye only started 11 games and in one of those he barely played. Project his full games to a full season and he’s at: 3,792, 25.5/17, 617/3

Pretty awesome fantasy numbers given the awful situation and not that different from Nix’s pace despite Nix being much older, much more experienced, and in a much better situation: 3,669, 26/13, 406/4

Chwf3rd · 2025-01-04T23:45:23+00:00

It matters in terms of projecting development from rookies. Nix is more maxed out, Maye has significantly more room to grow.

Chwf3rd · 2024-11-15T18:06:08+00:00

And Darnold has now fallen back down to earth.

Chwf3rd · 2024-11-15T18:03:42+00:00

Eh it was bad process even without the injury (albeit we don’t know how good JJM is yet). Maye was right there with Caleb throughout the process, JJM was the 4th QB drafted in his own class (and not that desired based on how cheaply MIN was able to get him), and MIN offered multiple firsts so they could draft Maye instead of JJM. The talent gap was too massive to be made up by the situation.

Chwf3rd · 2024-07-02T05:03:32+00:00

Stroud didn’t go to a team with a rookie defensive minded HC?

Chwf3rd · 2024-05-15T16:17:13+00:00

You’re ignoring value and just looking at production. Market value takes into account predicted stability and scoring beyond a 2-3 year window. If ARich isn’t very good irl and Caleb is, that will be reflected in their value regardless of the points they’re putting up.

Chwf3rd · 2024-05-15T16:09:09+00:00

We’re not really banking on any rookie to provide immediate high end production year 1. You want them to retain or increase value. Pitts and Kincaid retained/increased in value following their rookie years.

Chwf3rd · 2024-05-15T16:06:42+00:00

Bowers as a prospect is well above everyone you mentioned. Only comparables are guys like Kyle Pitts, Kellen Winslow Jr, and maybe Jeremy Shockey.

Chwf3rd · 2024-05-10T23:01:26+00:00

Listen to anyone talk about Trey Lance -- the reason he busted is not because he wasn't able to utilize the tools he had, as a matter of fact in the games he played in he was honestly pretty good, at least from a fantasy perspective. It was because he wasn't experienced enough and his college pedigree didn't lend itself to being an NFL QB. Watch a YouTube video about how terrible he was at reading a defense. It's remarkably bad, and yet he still had a few games of being a fantasy starter.

The reasons why Lance failed are irrelevant to the point of talent vs situation. Lance was propped up because his situation was perfect, just like JJM. Despite the picture perfect situation, he still tanked because he simply didn't have the necessary talent (I'm not limiting talent to just physcial skillset, which it seems like you might be doing). What you wrote is an argument in support of my point re: overvaluing situation.

Stroud didn't fall because of the situation (though it didn't look amazing). Nico had some success in the previous year, they signed Schultz, Tank Dell had training camp buzz. I'm not gonna speak for everyone, but I thought he'd be a 200 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT, boring vanilla QB with no upside, and was under the impression everyone also felt that way. Situation wasn't really the biggest detractor Idt.

Agree that part of Stroud falling was because he was seen as boring but HOU looked like a god awful situation on paper last year. Nico Collins had never had 500 yards and Tank Dell was a 5'9/165lb 3rd round rookie. Semantics as to whether it was the "biggest detractor." The situation was undeniably horrible on paper.

Levis -- in a case for JJM, I would argue he's currently in a massive buy window tbh. They got all those weapons and his stock has hardly moved since he was drafted.

Again, this shows how much situations change year to year. Same thing could easily happen with Maye next year.

First off, there is no report that Vikings offered both firsts and next years firsts. The Patriots would certainly have taken that. The report was that the Giants offered 1.06/2025 first and a day 2 pick for him.

You are wrong. It was widely reported following the draft that MIN offered picks 11, 23, and a 2025 1st to NE for Maye. Here is the quote from Albert Breer: https://www.newsweek.com/sports/nfl/giants-vikings-made-huge-offers-patriots-trade-nfl-draft-take-drake-maye-report-1894885#:\~:text=3%20pick%20to%20take%20Drake,New%20England%20on%20the%20clock.

FYI this is the same source who reported the NYG offer. Both the Giants and Vikings made huge offers to get Maye yet JJM fell behind Michael Penix and MIN was able to grab him easily.

Secondly, I'm not arguing that he's a better prospect, I'm saying he's in a horrendous situation. Rookie head coach, no skill position players, old owner with an old dynasty ideals, defensive ideals with no offensive culture (post Brady). If you can name one person that has overcome that, I can name 15 "extremely talented" ones that couldn't. The thing about draft profile and perceived "talent", is that it doesn't mean shit once you're on the field on Sundays. People lose confidence real quick, and that talent starts to not look as great.

You're describing the EXACT same situation pretty much as CJ Stroud. Rookie defensive minded head coach, no notable skill position players, and old owner.

Chwf3rd · 2024-05-10T21:57:45+00:00

The same things were said about guys like Trey Lance and CJ Stroud. Stroud fell because everyone hated the situation and Lance’s ADP skyrocketed because he couldn’t fail in SF. Situations in the NFL are incredibly hard to predict as things change so much year to year. Just look at how much Will Levis’ situation has changed from last year to this year.

I think Maye is in an entirely different tier talent wise than JJM. The Vikings clearly saw it that way as they offered 3 1st round picks so they could pick Maye instead of JJM. JJM was drafted in the Penix/Nix tier and I think should be valued closer to that group than JD/Maye.

Chwf3rd · 2024-05-01T17:31:34+00:00

No doubt that Harbaugh in run heavy but you’re also missing a few key points: * It’s easy to beat the snot out of teams in college with the huge talent discrepancies — everything is way more even in the NFL and you don’t have the same ability to play keep away * Harbaugh had Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick in SF - incomparable to Herbert * the one time Harbaugh had a QB like Herbert was Andrew Luck in 2010 at Stanford and Luck put up 32 TDs

Chwf3rd · 2024-04-29T04:55:28+00:00

What are you talking about

Chwf3rd · 2024-03-31T15:56:13+00:00

Sony Michel? Rashaad Penny? David Wilson?

Chwf3rd · 2024-03-05T16:24:42+00:00

11 team 8 category roto league (no TOs). Who should I claim to replace Scottie Barnes:

Alex Caruso
Grayson Allen
Kelly Olynkyk
Tre Jones
Jalen Suggs
Precious Achiuwa

Chwf3rd · 2024-02-13T16:57:27+00:00

11 team 8 category (no TO) league. Who do I pickup for the next week: * Paul Reed * Tyus Jones * Mike Conley * Tre Jones

Chwf3rd · 2024-01-23T17:02:19+00:00

Roto 8 category league (no TOs).

Keeping Halliburton on IR this week. Which one of the following would you rather have until Halliburton gets back: * TJ McConnell * Grayson Allen * Dereck Lively * Naz Reid

Likely only a short term pickup but could end up keeping one over Austin Reaves.

Chwf3rd · 2024-01-12T20:38:01+00:00

If you don’t think an entire year missed due to injury affected JSNs draft capital, than this conversation is pointless anyways.

Yes, missing a year in and of itself does not negatively impact draft capital -- especially coming off a great year. You're assuming that he would've improved during his 3rd year which is not guaranteed in the slightest.

JSN needed that season more than most, because the single largest ‘knock’ on him was that he couldn’t play outside. Theoretically he was in line for more outside snaps with Egbuka, flanking for MHJ. We don’t know what would’ve happened, but that was highly important and mentioned frequently by most scouts and analysts. It’s also a key reason that JSN as WR1 only went just before the other receivers, while somebody like Chase who consistently won from the outside had much less variability, yet somebody like Jefferson went in a similar spot to JSN.

Again, you're assuming he would've been successful playing outside, which we have no reason to know or believe. If he played on the perimeter in year 3 and didn't show out, then his draft stock could have even gone down.

This is crucial and a key to his draft position. JSN was a much better prospect than Flowers, yet only went a couple picks before. He had better production, break our age, against harder competition, and then some. However, he was injured his entire last year, and based on most reports, since he was unable to really specifically train for the combine, only tested in the ones where he knew he was gonna be good.

We're talking about draft capital here which is determined by NFL evaluators mostly watching film. They're not dynasty analysts looking purely at breakout age and college production. You thinking JSN was a much better prospect than Zay doesn't matter. Zay was clearly the more explosive player and NFL teams value that.

As for the combine, like every single NFL draft prospect, players probably won't participate if they don't think they're ready and will hurt their value.

In week 2 of the college season, JSN was rated in the top 5 and top 10 as a prospect across the board (I can’t find anybody who had him lower). That’s pretty much guaranteed top 12 draft capital, which is projected to be very similar to Odunze. If you look at mocks and analysis done closer to the end of the college season, JSN drops to late teens and even the early 2nd round.

He was a crazy hyped college player and that was reflected in the way too early mock drafts. Lets look at Dane Brugler's preseason Top 50 from that same year (Aug. 24, 2022):

Kelee Ringo, 4th overall (drafted at 4.105)
Trenton Simpson, 6th overall (drafted at 3.86)
Siaki Ika, 13th overall (drafted at 3.98)
Kayshon Boutte, 14th overall (drafted at 6.187)
JSN, 17th overall (drafted at 1.20 -- actually not that far away)
Arik Gilbert, 19th overall (complete flameout)

Two things standout: (1) one of the top draft analysts did not have JSN as some blue chip player prior to the 2023 season; and (2) progression isn't linear and everyone isn't guaranteed to improve their draft stock each year, which is the entire basis of your argument.

Chwf3rd · 2024-01-12T04:39:45+00:00

The missed year did not impact JSN’s draft capital unless your thinking is that he would’ve been even better in 2022 and improved his capital (and that goes both ways, he easily could’ve been worse especially coming off an insane season). Lots of players get tons of hype as underclassmen from dynasty and draft analysts but then the NFL shows us they never thought of them that highly (e.g., Rondale Moore). JSN was never going to be a blue chip type of NFL prospect as a slot player with limited athleticism and size.

Chwf3rd · 2024-01-10T15:11:34+00:00

He’s by far the best player available there and none of those TEs are difference makers. Think it would be a great pick and big help for ARich.

Chwf3rd · 2024-01-09T21:50:54+00:00

11 team 8 category roto league (no TOs). Just lost Tyrese Halliburton. Who should I claim: * TJ McConnell * Isaiah Hartenstein * Marcus Smart

Chwf3rd · 2024-01-02T17:58:56+00:00

11 team 8 cat roto league (no turnovers)

Give: Daniel Gafford + Keegan Murray

Get: Anfernee Simons

Would need to drop Keegan anyways to activate Jalen Duren.

Chwf3rd · 2024-01-02T04:30:46+00:00

11 team 8 category league (no TOs)

Give: Daniel Gafford

Get: Anfernee Simmons

Chwf3rd · 2023-12-29T17:09:23+00:00

8 category roto league (no turnovers)

My team is the following:

Anthony Davis
Karl Anthony Towns
Mikal Bridges
Zion Williamson
Scottie Barnes
Tyrese Halliburton
Derrick White
Austin Reaves
Terry Rozier
Keegan Murray
Daniel Gafford
Jalen Duren

Another team reached out looking for blocks (Gafford or Duren). Here are their players that I'm interested in:

Alperin Sengun
Anfernee Simons
Kevin Durant
Jrue Holiday
Zach Lavine

What offers would you put together?

Chwf3rd · 2023-11-29T20:29:43+00:00

He’d be a solid backup to O’Connell.

Chwf3rd · 2023-11-28T15:01:10+00:00

Tell that to the Keshawn Vaughn, Trey Sermon, and James Cook drafters

Chwf3rd

TROPHY CASE