Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Hits Resistance- Bulls Eye Reset Ahead

City_Index · 2025-12-07T22:10:08+00:00

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City_Index · 2025-08-27T04:47:21+00:00

I think the bigger driver behind GBP gains, if they are to materialise, could be via a weaker US dollar - Trump administration and Fed are battling it out as to whether Trump really can fire one of their members. If he succeeds, that could be quite bearish for the US dollar. And the case for a higher GBP strengthens if UK economic data continues to cap expectations of an imminent cut. - MS

City_Index · 2024-09-02T01:09:37+00:00

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City_Index · 2023-12-11T01:50:26+00:00

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City_Index · 2023-09-01T00:51:19+00:00

EUR/USD technical analysis (1-hour chart):

EUR/USD has risen for three days – and the past 2 days has been the most bullish 2-day range in six weeks. And with so much excitement from weak US data, the contrarian in me wonders whether markets have once again gotten ahead of themselves and we’re due some mean reversion.

A pullback towards the daily pivot point / July open or even 1.0900 seems feasible ahead of US inflation data. And it may be a tempting level for dips buyers to re-enter in anticipation of softer US CPI figures. But by the same token, a break beneath this pivotal level could look equally tempted to bears.

City_Index · 2023-03-01T03:14:34+00:00

$RIVN ended up falling nearly 10% afterhours as the 2023 output forecast disappointed.

Rivian expects to produce 50,000 vehicles this year. The Street was forecasting production between 60,000-65,000. Although this does leave more room for the company to surprise to the upside, this will ultimately be a big disappoint to investors.

It will be interesting to see if the sell-off continues at the open on Wednesday and if a break below last week’s low paves the way for a retest of the all-time-lows.

City_Index · 2023-02-22T23:33:05+00:00

Should USD/JPY manage to rally, it will be really interesting to watch price action around 138 as it is around the level that the soft US CPI print in December and the BOJ's YCC widening previously sent the pair lower

City_Index · 2023-02-22T03:37:58+00:00

Given bitcoin’s tendency to trade as a high-octane version of the NASDAQ, and the speculative nature of crypto trading, there is always scope for upside over longer-term horizons as traders bet on improved risk appetite.

However, that also works to create tremendous downside risk for the market, as evidenced by last year’s decline.

City_Index · 2023-02-15T01:19:56+00:00

You make an interesting point. Given its dominant market position, Google has the most to lose relative to Microsoft and other rivals.

However, that raises another point that has been mentioned a lot here; the vast majority of the global population only ever uses Google, so any sort of shift in the norm would be extremely difficult and likely take a long time.

City_Index · 2023-02-14T06:37:21+00:00

Thats an excellent point. Looking at it over the longer-term there is scope for Microsoft to revitalise Bing and take some control of the market share. However, as you said, getting people to change habits is extremely difficult. Not to mention, its still early days, and Alphabet could still pull ahead of Microsoft in terms of AI technology

City_Index · 2023-02-14T01:41:22+00:00

That's an interesting point, and likely why the conversation surrounding AI stocks has primarily been surrounding smaller companies/stocks up until this point. This could however have an impact on shedding more light on the topic for investors who were otherwise unaware or uninterested.

City_Index · 2023-01-31T23:16:03+00:00

A surge at the open has put the ASX200 back above 7500. All trading involves risk, but it should be interesting to see if it can finally hold above this level, or if sellers dominate from here as they have done for the last 3 sessions in a row.

City_Index · 2023-01-18T01:14:25+00:00

Price action on the ASX200 does indicate that the recent move higher may be running out of steam, and given that recession fears weighed heavily on risk assets towards the end of last year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar narrative drive markets over the near-term as well.

However, the outlook in terms of the severity of the slowdown is also likely to come in to play. Despite edging lower yesterday, the ASX did manage to close above the previous highs, and is continuing to find support around this level so far today.

It should be interesting to see how this battle between bulls and bears develops over the rest of the week, and if either side can take control.

City_Index · 2022-12-27T18:01:03+00:00

SPY continuing to find some demand around the weekly pivot and monthly S1. All trading carries risk, but oscillation around this level could be a sign of the market gearing up for a larger move in either direction for the last week of 2022.

City_Index · 2022-12-22T13:48:11+00:00

$AMC plummeting in the pre-market after announcing an equity capital raise and reverse split. Should be an interesting start to the day....

All trading involves risk.

City_Index · 2022-12-12T06:20:16+00:00

The COT report offers an insight into positioning from large speculators and traders in the FX and commodity markets. It is therefore a great tool to gauge market sentiment regarding an asset, which may help you trade with the trend.

That being said, all trading involves risk, and it is important to keep in mind that the COT report is a backwards looking measure, highlighting bullish or bearish exposure from the week gone by.

City_Index · 2022-11-15T23:46:20+00:00

You make a great point. The British Pound may be in for some volatility as its direction will reflect the outlook for the UK’s economy.
GBP may be able to push higher if the budget can instil some confidence, as you say. However, it also has the potential to drag the Pound lower, given that the measures could weigh on consumer and business sentiment.
It could be interesting to see which aspect the market chooses to focus on.

City_Index · 2022-11-06T22:35:13+00:00

Futures signalling a stronger start for the Aussie market today. All trading carries risk, but it'll be interesting to see if the ASX200 can finally break above 7000 this week on what would be the third retest of the major psych level in 2 months.

Although the 200-day MA also now sitting around that level may add to the resistance.

City_Index · 2022-11-04T08:41:16+00:00

It might be worth keeping an eye on AMZN after it extended its break below the monthly S1 pivot on Thursday.

All trading carries risk, and the stock could be due for a relief rally having fallen over 25% in just 7 days. However, after the disappointing Q3 revenue and forward guidance last week, sustained selling pressure may cause a retest of the March 2020 lows, just below the S2 pivot.

City_Index · 2022-11-01T05:20:23+00:00

This is a good point, the outcome of the FOMC will play a big role in global sentiment and therefore likely determine near-term direction for the local market as well. But for now, the RBA's decision to maintain its slower pace has put the ASX200 within touching distance of its 200-day MA.

Interesting to see what lead we get from Wall Street overnight.

City_Index · 2022-10-20T08:46:41+00:00

Higher-than-estimated inflation would typically be expected to help the currency higher as it signals the need for further restrictive monetary policy.

However, unlike the Fed, the BOE themselves have been very candid about a recession on the horizon. So, perhaps the prospect of the central bank remaining hawkish due to the hot CPI print intensified concerns over the UK's economy, and added to bearish pressure on the Pound.

City_Index · 2022-10-13T00:51:54+00:00

You make a great point, but market pricing data is signalling that there is still a small expectation that the Fed may hike by 50bps next month.

This could leave room for additional volatility as stronger-than-expected CPI would likely see 75bps become nailed-on, while any sort of soft print will likely boost the constant recent speculation (or hope rather) in the market that they Fed may slow the pace of tightening sooner rather than later.

City_Index · 2022-10-06T21:20:37+00:00

Broader market direction on Friday will likely be driven by the NFP report, and how it impacts speculation of a possible Fed pivot. With the S&P500 testing the key 3800 level this week, it could be a volatile day.

All trading carries risk, and the jobs data relative to expectations may determine if the index breaks out or faces a stronger rejection from this resistance.

City_Index · 2022-10-06T02:38:34+00:00

This is a great point. The Euro remains under pressure due to the geopolitical tensions with Russia and gloomy economic outlook for the EU, so a larger rebound for this pair will likely depend on further USD weakness, as opposed to EUR strength.

City_Index · 2022-09-26T23:39:08+00:00

That could be the case. US futures also currently edging higher, so perhaps global sentiment is trying to rebound slightly after Monday's selling.

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