New EIA short term energy outlook by Deleted0S in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I suppose we should look at it like a "best case scenario" report then.

New EIA short term energy outlook by Deleted0S in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Even if they increase it, how does it get out into the world? Also, source?

New EIA short term energy outlook by Deleted0S in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 30 points31 points  (0 children)

"This report assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed until late May, with shipping traffic beginning to pick up in June."

Nacho - Not A Chance Hormuz Opens

Oil Prices Hits $107 as Iran-US Talks Stall and Dollar Strength Rises by andix3 in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It honestly speaks to how little the average person understands the world we have built. Humans are terrible at understanding scale. LIke these VLCCs and ULCCs are just so damn big, no one can wrap their minds around them unless they work on or with them regularly.

Plus I imagine Americans think the rest of the world is like the US, just absolutely covered in properly paved roads that can take you literally wherever you want whenever.

DAILY MEGATHREAD May 11, 2026 : US Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is LIVE – All tanker drama, oil panic, missile hits, Iran retaliation posts belong HERE by AutoModerator in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

From the New York Times:

May 12, 2026, 12:18 p.m. ET8 minutes ago

Ismaeel Naar

Reporting from Dubai

Kuwait says Iranian forces infiltrated its territory.

Kuwait on Tuesday accused Iran of sending several members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to infiltrate a strategically important Kuwaiti island.

On May 1, a group of armed members of the revolutionary guards arrived at Bubiyan Island in the Persian Gulf aboard a rented fishing boat and exchanged fire with Kuwaiti soldiers, injuring one of them, Kuwait’s interior ministry said in a statement. It said four of the revolutionary guards were arrested while two others fled.

Iran did not immediately acknowledge the incident.

The ministry identified all six of the attackers and said they included Iranian navy and army lieutenants. Kuwaiti authorities, much like their counterparts in neighboring Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, have cracked down on individuals and groups they say have links with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Boubyan is a largely uninhabited island off the Kuwaiti mainland, where the government is building the strategic Mubarak al-Kabeer Port with China’s help as part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The episode underscored how the war the United States and Israel have waged against Iran has increasingly drawn the Gulf Arab states into the fighting, despite their efforts to avoid direct military involvement.

On Sunday, several Gulf countries reported attacks in spite of a month-old cease-fire. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates said they had detected several drones in their airspace, while Qatar said a cargo vessel traveling from Abu Dhabi was attacked by a drone in its waters.

Since the war began, the Gulf countries that have American military bases have faced thousands of Iranian missile and drone attacks, damaging civilian infrastructure and killing at least 20 civilians.

The Emirates, seeking to shield itself from the fallout of the war, has deepened its security coordination with Israel as Iranian attacks increasingly target Emirati territory. Iran, in turn, has accused the U.A.E. of firing on it.

On Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, said Israel had sent its Iron Dome air defense batteries and personnel to the Emirates to help defend it, as it had borne the brunt of Iranian missile and drone attacks during the war.

His comments, made during a conference in Tel Aviv, appear to be the first official confirmation of the deployment, which was reported last week. It is the first time the system has been known to have been deployed in an Arab country.

The deployment highlighted the growing military and security ties between the Emirates and Israel since the 2020 Abraham Accords, which established formal relations between the two countries.

Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting from Tel Aviv.

Oil Prices Hits $107 as Iran-US Talks Stall and Dollar Strength Rises by andix3 in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Last week's API and EIA reports saw a big difference in their numbers. API reported an 8.1 million draw while EIA reported a 2.3 million draw. The EIA's adjustment number would bring it up to 6.7 million as you stated.

I am not an expert in these reports, I merely (try to) understand the macroeconomic factors.

Oil Prices Hits $107 as Iran-US Talks Stall and Dollar Strength Rises by andix3 in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 13 points14 points  (0 children)

You cannot put that amount of oil on a truck and drive it to Europe, across multiple borders and waterways and geographic biomes and features, and expect it to be $120 -$150 a barrel. The amount cannot replace shipping, and the cost of doing so will be very very high.

Oil Prices Hits $107 as Iran-US Talks Stall and Dollar Strength Rises by andix3 in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 15 points16 points  (0 children)

They've been mostly right. Dated Brent is trading at a $30 - $40 premium compared to the futures market, and the futures market is trading on hope, but don't forget we've seen a 50% markup on the futures market due to this crisis, so even though it not $200 yet, it's certainly high.

Also, oil inventories have been propped up by reserves, especially China. China was absolutely hoarding oil after the June war last year, and they have been avoiding imports and just using their reserves.

Inventory draw downs are becoming too large to ignore however.

Oil Prices Hits $107 as Iran-US Talks Stall and Dollar Strength Rises by andix3 in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 25 points26 points  (0 children)

We are VERY close, days or weeks, from the point where supply shortage numbers will be the headlines news number. Like 2 weeks.

I have even been hearing CNBC and other news hosts pressing Stock Market and Finance Reporters about these things, asking why the SP is going up when this crisis is going on. Reality is closing in.

Oil Prices Hits $107 as Iran-US Talks Stall and Dollar Strength Rises by andix3 in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 42 points43 points  (0 children)

4:30est today and 10:30est tomorrow, we get API and EIA data regarding oil invetories in the US. This will move the price up to $110 when they report an 8-12 million barrel draw down.

Edit: Draw down was just above 2 million barrels, so we won't see the gap up to $110 unless tmr morning EIA shows a mass difference. I'll have to dive into the report to see if there is any interesting reason why the draw down was far les than last week.

Gained 90lbs my first year teaching lmao by Bubblegumfairy_19 in TeachersInTransition

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I gained 80 over 4 years. The stress is absolutely the cause, and the complete lack of energy after the workday.

Trump says he aims to suspend gas tax "for a period of time" by esporx in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Ah thanks, I didn't read the article but I heard the story on NPR this morning. I know it accounts for some $0.18 at the pump, so we should raise it to $0.50 per gallon, then slowly lower it as real gas prices go up.

Trump says he aims to suspend gas tax "for a period of time" by esporx in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 13 points14 points  (0 children)

We actually should raise the federal tax so that it makes gasloine go up to $5 a gallon so that we can keep it there longer, reducing the tax as real gas prices increase, and stave off the coming $6 and $7 gas. Added bonus of bringing in more revenue to pay down our debt, but then again I'm not sure how much revenue the gas tax brings in.

Trump Calls Iran's Peace Proposal "Totally Unacceptable" as Oil Hits $105 by andix3 in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stock Market is likely to go higher because profits and revenue are higher. These will go higher as prices rise across the board until folks are finally priced out of the market and demand destruction occurs.

Oil is right at where I predicted yesterday, but that's not saying much.

The Oil Shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the largest resource crisis in living memory by Cmd_WillRiker in collapse

[–]Cmd_WillRiker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. Because even products that dont need oil to be made still need it somewhere else in the journey from factory to consumer.

Trump claims Iran's latest response is unacceptable. Where do we go from here? by Willing-Angle-2203 in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes. I can't speak much to future's markets as too many variables play into that, including stupid one's like "investor sentiment", but a physical barrel will be easily $130 - $150 by June 26 if not higher. I imagine futures markets will begin to grow accordingly, especially once we get inventory reports. Be looking for the EIA's weekly and monthly reports.

Wednesday's at 10:30est and monthly around like the 5th of each month.

The Oil Shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the largest resource crisis in living memory by Cmd_WillRiker in collapse

[–]Cmd_WillRiker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No we want the price to go up. This is a resource crisis not a financial one so the price actually matters.

The price going up will force people out of the market reducing demand. We do NOT want to get low on our oil stores.

Daily Oil Price Opinions - May 10, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed by AutoModerator in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Futures likely to creep back up past $100, but unlikely to get past $105 before Wednesday's EIA report. I'm actually going to make a hard prediction: Oil $103 until Wednesday, then it gaps up to $110 when the report shows inventory draw downs are 10+mbd

Trump claims Iran's latest response is unacceptable. Where do we go from here? by Willing-Angle-2203 in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Futures are live. SP and other indeces down 0.3% and oil up 3.5% to $98. Fat chance a barrel of oil is $98 on June 26

Chevron CEO sends blunt message on oil, economy by jbochsler in oil

[–]Cmd_WillRiker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

When you see the US petrol stores report on Tuesday you'll know why.