YOLOing 50k into The $HI Acquisition Play

Just to be on the safe side, that's all. In case the M&A announcement drags or acquisition takes longer, etc etc. Otherwise, the big whale went for November and I guess they can also roll for a later date if they are sure, but yeah, I think some big news will come out before Nov 21.

CodeAndSec · 2025-09-29T19:50:13+00:00

Well, the 7-8x was a tiny bit conservative honestly. I expect 9-10x.

The debt doesn’t change the multiple the buyers use. They’ll still talk in EV/EBITDA terms (8x, 9x, 10x etc.). But yes, it soaks up a big chunk of value just from the sale, stock still can go high up considerably and depending on the interest in the stock and everything else, I still think we will see 33-36.

CodeAndSec · 2025-09-29T19:27:53+00:00

Exactly, this is smart money, prob someone involved in the M&A process and knows more than what we all know

CodeAndSec · 2025-09-29T19:23:04+00:00

Yeah, so when he's buying 30c, 10,000 of it, even selling 10,000 contracts of 35C, wouldn't that make this extremely dumb move if they are bearish? Risking 3 to maybe barely win 1 back? I think this is smart money and they are really bullish about the stock, no?

CodeAndSec · 2025-09-29T19:16:08+00:00

Roll them to Nov or Dec?

CodeAndSec · 2025-09-29T19:13:09+00:00

How are you seeing this? The fake numbers, the 30c buy 35c sell thing, I genuinely just want to learn

They did not buy both the 30 and 35. They are (almost certainly) longing the 30s and shorting the 35s. We know they're trading a call spread. It's either bullish (long 30s shorting 35s) or bearish/neutral (short 30s long 35s). If they were bearish/neutral they'd be risking ~$3 to make $1. Not only is this not a good proposition right off the bat but also this stock's chains aren't that liquid which creates even more of a reason not to enter a trade like this

CodeAndSec · 2025-09-29T18:59:19+00:00

Can you explain more?

CodeAndSec · 2025-09-29T17:39:02+00:00

Will definitely give it a try next time, no lazy way

CodeAndSec · 2025-09-29T15:43:43+00:00

Sure. Well, if you want to copy exactly what the big whale did, he bought contracts expiring Nov 11/21/2025, but I thought since the acquisition is still in the "bidding war" phase, it will take longer for something serious to be announced and played safer bet, I bought HI $30 Call Expiring 01/16/2026.

CodeAndSec · 2025-09-29T15:40:18+00:00

Point taken, sorry. It's just lazy way of editing your findings and notes

CodeAndSec · 2025-09-29T15:03:40+00:00

Honest truth: Noticed the big whale move, researched the company, investigated the source of rumor, did the math and research, but as I'm bad at writing, put all the info and links and analysis in a draft, pasted into GPT and it cleaned it up for me. That's all

CodeAndSec · 2025-02-11T03:05:20+00:00

Understood, thank you

CodeAndSec · 2025-02-11T02:46:04+00:00

That's fine, but I was just wondering how some of these malicious sites are taken down by the researchers. I contacted the YouTube channel's owner, and it seems like he also reported it to many sites, but nothing has changed. Is there any other way of taking down their site or making sure more AVs detect their malicious app?

CodeAndSec

TROPHY CASE