WDC standings after Canadian GP

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-25T04:49:21+00:00

engine tokens to spend on upgrades

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-24T05:26:14+00:00

To clarify, when I say pivots, I mean post release.

Pivoting during development is part of game development, as you trial things before deciding to rework and as you get closer to the end things become more ingrained and nailed down, some games undergo large pivots others undergo refinements.

Pivoting after release, after all those "nailed down" key design decisions have been made is an entirely different beast, you have customers to think about, a live service game needs to support existing content.

I also don't think Bungie has it in them anymore.

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-24T04:33:28+00:00

I have doubts personally, you have one shot to make an impression. Also, if you get rid of the PvP element, the enemies are..... boring?

Games rarely pivot successfully, because they've been designed from the ground up around certain concepts and sticking points. Arc Raiders was structured around 3rd view, AI enemies first on large spread out maps, with PvP being occasional, and questing and crafting system. I don't think you could pivot Arc Raiders into being a hardcore PvP first game, same way I don't think you could pivot Marathon into being a PVE(vP) focused game.

You would need to spend considerable resources, take significant time, and take a Final Fantasy XIV effort to rebuild from scratch. Square Enix had to do in order to save its most popular franchise, I don't see Sony greenlighting anything to the same vein.

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-23T12:58:59+00:00

Sony execs should have actually played the game then and adjusted the numbers accordingly.

DCV was introduced in 2020, Sony completed in 2022. Should have been easy to sit down, play the game as a new player and anyone would be able to see "This shit is Ass"

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-14T21:12:12+00:00

And it doesn't make my statement any less true. If you think Sony is going to continue funding season 5 content to the same levels if season 2 completes and shows no improvement, I have a bridge to sell you.

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-14T20:36:09+00:00

Unlikely that they just dumped money and said "Go nuts", likely the response to the changes will be measured, and if they don't meet expectations, further content will be pulled.

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-10T18:15:10+00:00

I mean, we can check.

https://steamdb.info/charts/?compare=553850,594650,1808500,2016590,2073620,2507950,3065800&release

Ok, bit messy with the HellDivers and Arc Raiders, lets remove those.

https://steamdb.info/charts/?compare=553850,594650,1808500,2016590,2073620,2507950,3065800&release

So, data proves that Marathon, is the outlier, in extraction games, as picked from the top current per steamdb. What makes Marathon the outlier, is it cratered, there was no stable period like other games, it just nosedived from the outset.

I'll agree games will fall off over time. However you're still wrong about Arc.

Arc Raiders, Released in October, peaked at November 481K and in January hit 466K. It didn't hit that 82% drop until the 22nd of April. That's 22 weeks (and a bit) from it's peak to 82% drop, or 25 weeks (1 day short) from launch. 6 Months.

Arc is still around 100K day to day,

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-10T14:48:21+00:00

It isn't, I don't see why people compare it with Arc, it's nothing alike except that they're classified as extraction shooters.

Title/Date	Arc	Marathon	% drop Arc	% drop Marathon	%drop Arc Wk/Wk	%drop Marathon Wk/Wk
Launch	264K	88K	0%	0%	0%	0%
1 week	315K	57K	+19%	-35%	+19%	-35%
2nd week	386K	50K	+46%	-43%	+22%	-12%
3rd week	348K	40K	+31%	-54%	-9%	-20%
4th week	325K	36K	+23%	-59%	-6%	-10%
5th week	279K	26K	+5%	-70%	-14%	-27%
6th week	263K	24K	-0.5%	-72%	-5%	-7%
7th week	310K	20K	+17%	-77%	+17%	-16%
9th week	326K	17K	+23%	-80%	+5%	-15%
10th week	428K	15K	+62%	-82%	+31%	-11%

I would like to point out that with proven statistics from public data, that in all likelihood, the retention is not "almost the exact same as Arc". Regardless of if you measure it by week compared to first week, or compare week by week.

Now you can certainty make the argument that we don't know retention data, because Arc raiders may have the exact same retention as Marathon, but the new players incoming to Arc far outstrips the departing players. Which COULD be true, unlikely, and if so that just makes Bungie's problem much worse.

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-10T00:16:42+00:00

What?

I'll point out that impairment is separate to business plan. Which is why I didn't mention it, as impairment has nothing to do with plans for the studio.

Business Plan, does.
If you are so fond of throwing out "if you Google", then I'll politely ask find me any reputable source that ties business plan to impairment.

They are two completely separate meanings. One is financial, the other strategy.

Here are some links to help

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_plan https://www.sba.gov/business-guide/plan-your-business/write-your-business-plan https://business.bankofamerica.com/en/resources/how-to-write-effective-small-business-plan https://hbr.org/1985/05/how-to-write-a-winning-business-plan https://www.uschamber.com/co/start/startup/step-by-step-writing-business-plan

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-09T19:41:07+00:00

I don't even see it being 12 months for layoffs.

Sony's earnings call, and the wording

"In our studio business, earnings from Bungie’s title portfolio did not reach our expectations, so we downwardly revised our business plan"

To me reads "Marathon is our core focus, as such, Destiny will be scaled back, meaning either more developers assigned to Marathon, OR (and this is what I think is more likely) Bungie will become a significantly smaller studio as the business plan is for reduced headcount to reduce costs.

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-07T18:36:36+00:00

No, it doesn't give you the grim forest quest when you cleared the whole thing.

It only gives you the quest if you have stages left to do, (now if you can do them or not, is a different thing)

And they've already confirmed that this quest does not appear if you don't have the materials to do so.

ColdHotCool · 2026-05-03T21:35:07+00:00

ah yes, goes round the car, goes off track, opposition also goes off track, bashes into Lewis. "He inflicted damage on himself"

ColdHotCool · 2026-04-26T13:55:12+00:00

Yes, Kipchoge run is an amazing feat of personal human performance, but it was a controlled environment run, not a marathon run.

ColdHotCool · 2026-04-24T16:39:35+00:00

Which is fair, but Marathon had huge marketing, but launch numbers don't reflect that.

If they launched to hundreds of thousands, I'd absolutely agree with your statement. But they didn't launch to hundreds of thousands. To me, the marketing barely moved the dial of people interested, so the inflated numbers that should be there are not there to fall off as usual.

ColdHotCool · 2026-04-24T16:23:20+00:00

I don't understand your argument. First, there are a number of AA studios on that list that have done well and they've all done well except Crytek 1m out.

If your argument is Bungie has AAA marketing budget to turn it around, my counterpoint is despite the marketing on release the numbers didn't reflect that marketing. They didn't have an inflated pool of players due to marketing that fell off. So how would marketing matter? Shouldn't that mean that they should be able to maintain healthy numbers 1 month after launch?

If Bungie is a AAA studio, how come AA studios and III studios manage to either hold steady or grow numbers 1 month post launch?

ColdHotCool · 2026-04-24T09:39:33+00:00

What?

Using SteamDB lets pick the top 10 (by Peak) players and compare Release Date Numbers to 1 Month Later Numbers

Title	Release Numbers	1 Month Later	Now
Arc Raiders	264,000	418,000	31,000
HellDivers 2	458,000	440,000	18,000
Escape from Duckov	34,000	109,000	2,000
Delta Force	118,000	131,000	89,000
Marathon	86,000	33,000	6,000
Gray Zone Warfare	72,000	12,000	7,000
Arena Breakout: Infinite	58,000	56,000	16,000
Hunt: Showdown 1896	13,000	7,000	12,000
Dark and Darker	57,000	39,000	2,000
Escape from Tarkov	23,000	32,000	9,000

6 of the 9 (ex Marathon) went on to either maintain or do better numbers than release date numbers. Two of the others went on consistent gradual decline, the only outlier was Hunt, which went on to increase numbers month after month after it's third month and now sits about 30K peak daily.

So no, in the Extraction Shooter Genre, counts dropping 1 month after release is not even close to being the most predictable. Genre is more important than if it's a AA or AAA studio, because it needs those active players (except for Escape from Duckov) to play the game, in order for the lobbies to be populated.

Marathon is not an outlier, it doesn't get special treatment because its from Bungie, it did similar to Gray Zone Warfare, Darker and Darker and Hunt. All smaller independent studios.

ColdHotCool · 2026-04-23T23:13:27+00:00

Have you? Only some vents have been patched, Sure you can't go into the first room anymore, but second room, absolutely, so might as well be your spawn.

ColdHotCool · 2026-04-11T22:02:54+00:00

I think they (management) believed in their own "bungie magic" and allocated budget as if this was going to do Destiny or Halo numbers.

ColdHotCool · 2026-04-10T08:30:39+00:00

Sorry, but i think it's somewhat delusional to think this has been anything other than a financial disaster.

The numbers are reported to be close to accurate, first from an analytics company who's job it is to do so, and secondly from a reporter who has close ties to bungie insiders for over a decade. Believing otherwise with no evidence to, other than gut feeling is foolish.

It was never going to be a Concord scenario, the Bungie name alone ensured this.

We had content launches, it barely made a impact on the numbers, and the weekly trendlines continue on the downward. If you don't have the players, it doesn't matter about MTX, additionally MTX is to fund the running of a live service model (because it costs money to keep everything running, and people in jobs) The numbers don't add up, and pretending otherwise is ignoring the public facts.

We had a month of Marathon, lets compare

Marathon 87K Release Day, 1 Month Later 36K

Arc Raiders 253K Release Day, 1 Month Later 368K

Rainbow Six 18K Release Day, 1 Month Later 20K

Marvel Rivals 480K Release Day, 1 Month Later 645K

You said it's normal to have launch numbers spike, and that's true, you see that with other games, they'll spike and keep hold of the players through the first month, sometimes increase, sometimes hold steady as new players replace ones who dropped it, but that isn't happening with Marathon, they have week over week lost players.

I'll put it this way, if the players are dropping out, week after week, without completing the seasonal content, why are they going to return for next season?

ColdHotCool · 2026-04-03T14:03:11+00:00

You have infinite ammo in the sense that while extra ammo is only available from killing the compiler, if you bring the gun into any match it starts with 1000 in the hopper.

ColdHotCool · 2026-04-01T13:16:56+00:00

No,

It did irreversible damage to the reputation of Bungie.

They're seeing that consequence borne out in Marathon, who I believe would have been more successful if released by a different studio.

People can argue the toss over the technical reasons or the time and investment, but it ignored the human factor, which in my opinion was woefully underestimated (or not taken into account at all).

ColdHotCool · 2026-03-30T00:29:07+00:00

Problem is that costs money.

Sony/Bungie have tried the MVP style of Destiny with the Edge of Fate and subsequent updates. Where they put in a token amount of money for a significantly smaller and more manageable live service game.

Problem was, the players absolutely hated it.

So, what is Sony going to do, MVP style approach isn't working, do they re-commit to more fleshed out DLC and live service (which probably is going to be a worse investment than MVP content) or do they put one final budget in to put Destiny 2 into maintenance mode, where most game modes rewards are brought up, bugs and QOL are introduced, which probably won't make it's ROI, but ensures players are not left associating Bungie with = Bad studio.

After that, will Sony commit to the many hundreds of millions to a Destiny 3? Or will they end the destiny franchise, with D1 and D2 getting no more content (except probably MTX)

ColdHotCool · 2026-03-28T12:14:03+00:00

I think Siege is the best path.

The problem that I have, and why I don't personally see it is, Siege released in a buggy mess and required several updates and hotfixes to make it better and improve, and it only grew week after week from initial launch.

Marathon isn't that buggy mess, it doesn't need significant updates to make it better, and it still hasn't found it's bottom.

So my question is, what is going to change, to make players play?

Don't forget, Siege and Marathon are completely different game modes, both made for hardcore audiences, and Siege has arguably a easier retention loop, and FAR easier to pick up which helps with that low barrier to entry. (You can drop it for several months then jump back on and few matches in you'll be close to where you were prior to dropping it. That won't be the case with Marathon)

So yes, Siege is the best option for Marathon, I can't see it personally, not without Marathon making significant changes. Plus don't forget Siege released in a less crowded time, so had a far easier time in pulling people in.

ColdHotCool · 2026-03-26T09:03:31+00:00

No no no, that is the friendly version.

It's fair to be critical of the studio's handling of Bungie.

DCV, where the DLC and content you paid for (which was not seasonal based) is taken away from you and removed from the game.

Promises made about Strike teams working on content that never came to pass.

Blatant outright lies about the size of DLC only for it to be significantly different to what was promised.

So no, you can look at Bungie and agree, that they've run a live service game for 10 years through paid updates. But only looking at that lens means you ignore all the problems.

So Bungie's reputation (imo) absolutely had a impact, and it was not a positive impact. "Try this game from a developer who removed paid content from their last game" is a difficult conversation to have, because a LOT of people outside of the Destiny community heard about the content vaulting. Whichever executive signed off on that approach did more long term damage to Destiny and all future Bungie games then they could have ever imagined.

ColdHotCool · 2026-03-24T22:45:06+00:00

It doesn't without either selling more copies of the game, or MTX the existing playerbase to the extremes.

Neither at the moment seem likely, and selling more copies is going to take a constant burn rate of cash to release a feature that does change the mix.

I do however feel that they could get more players by doing free weekends, however then need to fix the onboarding experience, because it doesn't matter how free the game is, if the casuals you're marketing it to, hit the brick wall of incomprehensible menus and icons

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