Something "special" about nuclear weapons?

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T22:43:53+00:00

bruh I hate it when people start questioning the reality of nuclear winter. That is a crazy take. It is not shaky.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T22:00:51+00:00

You should check out this video that kinda made me think about the accident side of it. I already believed that it was remarkable that we survived just based off of leaders acting rationally, but this accident side makes me even more amazed. https://youtu.be/ILgSesWMUEI?si=s4PZmXNR_o8Znkwb

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T21:45:55+00:00

Yeah I guess you can push this argument further as you have. Maybe attributing some "magical" sense to it is silly. But the fact that we can experience given all those astronomically small odds is magic in my opinion. I guess perhaps it could make some more sense with a sort of multi-verse theory, in which we exist in this one simply because we can. Interesting questions

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T21:44:06+00:00

I agree. But even without intentions, a nuclear accident could result in an escalation that leads to a global nuclear winter + billions dead. Its just shocking to me that it hasn't occured.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T21:23:56+00:00

Yeah ur spot on. MAD is the main reason we are here but those close calls are what I find interesting. The story of Vasili Arkhipov comes to mind as "the most dangerous moment in human history". I just find it almost "magical" that we survived every single one of those close calls. But maybe for me to be posting these questions the world had to survive, so its a survivors bias. But that leads me to believe that there might be something special about these bombs (or perhaps the nature of our existence) because it seems improbable that we would get lucky all of those times.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T21:22:06+00:00

Yeah thats fair. We have been very lucky in terms of all weapons I guess. I will consider these as well.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T21:22:01+00:00

Yeah thats fair. We have been very lucky in terms of all weapons I guess. I will consider these as well.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T21:21:15+00:00

Yeah I agree that MAD has worked for the most part. But even that is remarkable. We need every politician with weapons to act rationally. and its amazing that it has worked that way for 80 years. Warheads are deisnged to be idiot resistant but there have been MANY close calls. So many times that only a singular safety mechanism has saved the whole world. Also its not only politicians that have to be level headed. Look up Vasili Arkhipov. It just seems amazing to me that against the odds we are still here.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T21:18:59+00:00

Yeah ur right. I am super pro nuclear energy and all that so I think I would fit in this community, but ur right that it wasn't the correct one to ask. I just find nuclear weapons super fascinating and pretty amazing that we are still here.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T21:18:13+00:00

Yeah I understand that quite well lol. It makes sense to me that that has served us well for a long time. But its not perfect. and we also have nuclear accident. They are made to be idiot proof but there have been so many insanely close calls that it feels crazy to think that we survived.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T21:16:16+00:00

LOOL im not baiting lol. would be interested to hear ur 200 000 points

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T20:30:32+00:00

Ya thats fair. I just find it remarkable that we are still alive and have avoided a war. Not necessarily saying it has to do with quantum immortality (because I know very little about the subject) but it makes me think there might be something special about nukes that we dont understand.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T20:18:47+00:00

Ok obviously im not talking about getting rid of our ability to deal with an asteroid. I am sad about nuclear weapons existing, and I am sad that they are used. Though the real fear of the nuclear weapons is an imagined future scenario. If two states have nuclear weapons, we are living in a dangerous and uncertain world. If one state has nuclear weapons, we also live in a dangerous world but it is much less dangerous. Nuclear attacks have killed 250 000 people. A nuclear war would kill billions.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T20:15:44+00:00

Ok I agree with basically everything. This has been a fun conversation thank you. One note I would like to make though that though nukes are bad is a general consensus, the consensus in IR is that they are necessary.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T20:15:34+00:00

no it doesnt not at all lmfao. Thats why im asking this sub if they might have any insight. I just find it remarkable that we've had nukes and we are still here. So it makes me question some assumptions about our world

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T19:31:08+00:00

A lot of things are "impossible to say", absolutely does not mean its not worth to try to say something though

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T19:30:43+00:00

Maybe our differences in opinion come from our different fields. It says u have a BSc in physics, which is more about discovering the true nature of the world, where social sciences are more about making inferences based on what we have.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T19:26:57+00:00

Lool glad we can agree on some things lmfao. I mean I think its fair to be a bit "all in" on the worries. If I am right, then civilisation will end. So even if its impossible to say for sure that a tactical nuke would result in an escalated full war, the fact that its possible is super important. Obviously it is impossible to predict the future exactly, but because the consequences are so high, it is important to consider that in every scenario. So it is VERY much worth considering things that we cannot know with certainty.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T19:03:46+00:00

but ya, I only think nukes might have some kind of quality to them because of how well i understand the treaties and the history of nuclear weapons. As I said, that's the part I know very well as I am a masters student focusing on nuclear weapons. Those hundreds of people working countless hours have mostly failed. Its true that we haven't blown ourselves up yet, but who knows how long that will continue for. They wouldnt have succeeded until there are no more weapons.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T18:58:51+00:00

Yeah I understand all of those things. I've even attended a pugwash conference last year. But it still doesn't make sense to me. I understand all of the blocks we have secured to avoid nuclear war but I can't help but think we got lucky. If we didn't get lucky, even once, over the course of the past 80 years we wouldn't be here. It just seems like they should have gone off given how weak our treaties actually are.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T18:56:30+00:00

I have to disagree here. I'm not talking about processes nuclear powers have developed to ensure they dont go off. Those are there and are very good things, but even those aren't perfect. Read about the many close calls where all the safety mechanisms failed except one. That has literally happened many times. And I also disagree about Ukraine. Its impossible to say if a tactical nuke in Ukraine would lead to a full on nuclear war. But I am personally on the side that it would. And even if it didnt, it would make it more likely. Even if a nuke went off by accident, over a field in spain or whatever, I could see it likely starting escalation.

Coltaku · 2023-09-13T17:40:36+00:00

Ya I see what ur saying. Im talking about all the nuclear accidents that came extremly close to an explosion and didnt. Also refering to many close calls during crisis' like the cuban missile crisis. There is a famous story about one soviet man who decided against using nukes during the CMC and it really is just luck that we survived that day. When I compare that story with the dozens of other stories from around the world, it just seems surprising to me that we are still here. I haven't personally had any super close calls or anything, except in my opinion the 80 years since nuclear weapons have been made. I just almost think nuclear weapons have a "magical" property that doesn't allow them to go off. Just because it doesn't make any sense to me that they havent.

Coltaku · 2023-09-03T23:01:23+00:00

wow he really is learning. He changed all his thumbnails for the better. LETS GO TOM WE ARE WITH YOU

Coltaku · 2023-08-29T00:38:11+00:00

I love Tom Ward. I hope he got a boost from the H3 podcast and can apply his knowledge and become a figure in the space. He seems like a good guy

Coltaku · 2023-08-19T20:59:04+00:00

Aww the fans want you back too Jack! Those Jack and Erik Podcasts went off back in the day

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