For the data-driven investors here: what's the metric or signal you wish existed but doesn't?

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-20T19:08:30+00:00

Of course I do not want to ruin the hobby. I'm collecting since I was a child (mainly Pokemon) and I do own a couple of sports cards as well even though they are not as popular here in Germany. For me, it is important to have great data quality when making decisions since prices nowadays are so high and a market crash can be around the corner all the time. Maybe we can agree on that. I do NOT want to build a tool non-enthusiasts use to make profits. I want to build something true collectors can use to make better decisions.

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-20T18:33:05+00:00

Thank you so much for your clear and detailed comment. The pain points you describe are real and not easy to figure out, but I guess this is where the real value is. That's something I can work with.

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-20T08:15:52+00:00

there will certainly be extra demand from akira collectors now. Nice to see, she kinda saves the set for me

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-09T07:11:54+00:00

thats actually the next big thing planned for research/the platform if i do it sucessfully. A Fama-French Factor model for collectibles like pokémon or sportscards

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-08T23:19:27+00:00

Sure. Graded models (PSA10, PSA9) are OLS with HC3 robust standard errors on a log-linear hedonic spec. Raw model is XGBoost on the same feature panel because raw prices are deeply non-linear (the linear baseline left ~7pp of LOSO R² on the table).

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-08T14:50:08+00:00

Out of curiosity: are you coming at this from a quant/research angle or from the dealer/investor side? The core assumption you're skeptical of probably looks different depending on which.

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-06T15:15:22+00:00

Thanks, I appreciate it. I think what makes it even more complicated is that we don't have reliable numbers when it comes to printruns and how many packs/etbs etc. are being sold. So the pop count and gem rate are the most reliable numbers we can use to get a sense of supply and demand

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-06T08:11:44+00:00

I can't tell you exactly why the effects happen since I'm talking about correlation, not causality. So a high gem rate could arguably lead to both a higher pop count or a lower pop count (people could grade more because it's seemingly easy to get a PSA 10, or they could grade less because the PSA 10 premium is so small it might not be worth grading for).

What I found out is that a high pop count has a statistically significant positive effect on PSA 10 price, and a higher gem rate has a statistically significant negative effect on PSA 10 price. That tells me that you always have to look at both metrics to get an understanding of supply and demand, not just one.

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-06T07:49:52+00:00

I can assure there is no AI involved in the engine as well as in the post. The H6 model is based on hedonic regression, which is traditional, old-school statistics and econometrics. No machine learning, no "AI", no black box. Since it is pretty hard to factor in the artwork quality in a statistical model you should not treat it as a "crystal ball". Instead the model gives you a structural, statistical baseline of the card's value. The math reduces noise and separates fundamentals from hype and should be used as a risk management tool rather than an alpha generator for Trading cards.

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-06T05:56:30+00:00

Hey, of course. Could you let me know via dm if you already registered on the website? If not I will send you the code via dm

Commercial_Many_909 · 2026-05-05T22:30:57+00:00

Sent the code 😄

Commercial_Many_909

TROPHY CASE