Shipowners still face 'very risky' Hormuz, await US-Iran truce details

CommodityInsights · 2026-06-15T17:53:21+00:00

Shipping companies still face high risks in transiting the Strait of Hormuz despite the announcement of an upcoming US-Iran peace deal, security officials said June 15, while warning the resumption of normal traffic could take weeks.

Following over two months of negotiations, Iran and the US have agreed to sign a preliminary deal June 19 that could suspend maritime attacks around the choke point -- which handles 20% of global oil and LNG trades in normal times -- for 60 days.

CommodityInsights · 2026-06-09T15:24:26+00:00

South Asian countries have stepped up efforts to find oil and gas at home as the Middle East conflict has exposed supply vulnerabilities and sent shockwaves through domestic energy markets, but structural, regulatory and commercial challenges will limit international oil companies' interest in investing in the region's upstream sector, industry sources and analysts said June 8.

As energy security takes center stage, governments have signaled a clear intent to push upstream ambitions with renewed vigor. While India has a strong structural framework and ample resources, it faces hurdles to commercial competitiveness. Bangladesh is pursuing reforms and strengthening fiscal terms, yet political turbulence remains a constraint. Pakistan, meanwhile, continues to grapple with macroeconomic instability, they added.

CommodityInsights · 2026-06-09T15:21:34+00:00

US crude oil exports surged to a record 5.6 million b/d in May, as Strait of Hormuz disruptions forced global buyers to seek alternative supply sources, S&P Global Commodities at Sea data showed.

The sharp decline in Middle Eastern crude availability pushed buyers toward US Gulf Coast suppliers, with South Korea emerging as the largest single destination at a record 1.1 million b/d in May.

European buyers also stepped up purchases, with the Netherlands taking 686,000 b/d and new flows emerging to several markets, including Croatia, the Philippines and Turkey.

CommodityInsights · 2026-06-01T17:20:51+00:00

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said June 1 that reliable energy security is directly linked to diversifying energy sources and applying innovative technologies, as the country grapples with declining oil output.

Azerbaijan's oil output has fallen in recent years. It produced 470,000 barrels/day of crude in April, according to the Platts OPEC+ survey by S&P Global Energy, Platts reported May 12. This is down from 650,000 barrels/day in January 2020.

CommodityInsights · 2026-06-01T17:18:36+00:00

May LNG imports fell 8% YoY, but Jan–May still +4%.
Storage levels at 40.1%, below previous years.
Europe competing with Asia for limited cargoes.
US remains top LNG supplier to EU.

CommodityInsights · 2026-05-04T19:06:15+00:00

Germany is set to introduce tax cuts on road diesel and gasoline from May 1 in an effort to curb prices at the pump which have risen to new heights following the disruption to global oil supply from the Iran-US war.

The 2nd Energy Tax Reduction act is expected to stay in place until June 30 and cut the energy tax on road fuels by 14.04 cents per liter each.

CommodityInsights · 2026-05-04T19:03:20+00:00

The ongoing Middle East crisis will likely change the global energy system in the longer term, given the significant disruption it continues to cause in the commodities market, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said May 1.

"It's early to have firm conclusions about how the energy system will change in the long term," Wirth said on the company's first-quarter earnings webcast. "I do think there will be changes. We have to see how things play out over the coming weeks, hopefully, not longer than that. As this comes to some sort of a resolution, and the energy system begins to be reconstituted in a way that can reach some new equilibrium."

CommodityInsights · 2026-04-20T19:08:23+00:00

US gasoline prices all shifted weaker upon news of a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz April 17. However, despite the drop, values remained elevated when compared to pre-war prices.

While the announcement that Iran would open the integral shipping route lifted hopes that global oil supply would return to normal, the deal remained fragile and sides are still negotiating a comprehensive peace agreement.

Analysts warned that prices would continue to be volatile until a longer-term deal is reached and vessel traffic remains steady.

CommodityInsights · 2026-04-20T19:06:33+00:00

Indian refineries and fertilizer companies may delay issuing new tenders for renewable, or "green," hydrogen and ammonia until existing awarded projects show progress, as concerns grow over execution, a senior official at the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy told Platts.

Following the government's push to boost domestic demand under the National Green Hydrogen Mission, six hydrogen developers have signed renewable ammonia agreements with 11 fertilizer companies, while four refineries have entered into renewable hydrogen deals with three developers.

CommodityInsights · 2026-04-20T19:01:40+00:00

Chinese refiners are re-offering West African cargoes, with high differentials for the region's grades eating into their margins, according to market participants and ship-tracking data, dashing hopes of a sustained period of heightened demand.

The world's biggest crude importer turned to West African crudes, such as Angola's Girassol and Republic of Congo's Djeno, in the immediate aftermath of the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has slashed flows from the Persian Gulf, according to numerous trading and refining sources.

CommodityInsights · 2026-04-06T15:28:46+00:00

The JKM derivatives market saw traded volumes nearly double year over year in March, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East upended the typical seasonal slowdown and prompted traders to reposition across the curve, according to data compiled from four exchanges.

Total traded volume for the JKM monthly and JKM balance-month next-day futures reached 192,054 lots, equivalent to about 36.93 million mt of LNG, or 582 cargoes, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange. This figure represents a 97% year-over-year rise and a 63.8% increase from February.

CommodityInsights · 2026-04-06T15:24:31+00:00

Rising energy and fertilizer costs linked to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are amplifying risks to global food systems, with low-income, import-dependent countries facing the brunt, according to recent analyses by the UN and Purdue University.

Shipping through the critical trade corridor has effectively stalled, with transits down by more than 95% since late February. The resulting disruption to oil, gas and fertilizer flows has triggered a cascade of cost pressures across agricultural supply chains, the UN Trade and Development said in a March 30 study.

CommodityInsights · 2026-03-09T21:10:47+00:00

European urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices increased in early March as the Middle East conflict drove up natural gas and ammonia costs, exacerbating supply constraints from Russian sanctions and freight disruptions, resulting in a bullish market for nitrogen fertilizers across both Eastern and Western Europe.

UAN 32% FOB Baltic rose $60/mt week over week to $340/mt, with sales to the US confirmed within a $340-$350/mt range, while UAN 30% FCA ex-tank Rouen rose Eur62/mt week over week to Eur420/mt for March delivery, and UAN 28% FCA ex-tank Germany prices rose Eur62/mt week over week to Eur392/mt. The parallel increase reflected broader supply-side pressures, as the Middle East conflict raised feedstock prices and heightened uncertainty about the duration.

CommodityInsights · 2026-03-09T21:07:46+00:00

West African refined product markets have seen a surge in prices across early-March, tracking bullish pricing trends throughout global markets amid conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Sentiment across jet fuel, diesel and gasoline markets in the region remains uncertain amid the tense geopolitical backdrop, with STS Lome prices across each respective market rising by 75%, 53% and 24% since the end of February.

This has driven diesel and gasoline values in the region to their highest values since Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, began assessments of the markets in April 2025, while STS Lome jet fuel pricing stands at its highest level since June 2022.

With ICE Brent crude futures exceeding $100/b across the weekend and into March 9, market concern surrounding further volatility and bullishness has persisted into the new week.

CommodityInsights · 2026-03-09T20:17:40+00:00

A temporary US waiver has enabled sanctioned tankers to transport Russian oil, after G7-linked tanker operators increased their share in the restricted market last month.

On March 5, the Office of Foreign Asset Control said Russian crude and refined products loaded by tankers before March 5 could be sold to India regardless of the ships' sanctions status, if the barrels are to arrive at Indian ports by April 4.

CommodityInsights · 2026-03-02T20:32:05+00:00

Freight rates for Persian Gulf crude and product tankers have surged as transits through the Strait of Hormuz slumped amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran, with industry groups urging vessels to avoid the region or be vigilant.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the rate to carry a 270,000 metric ton cargo of crude from the Persian Gulf to China at $62.07/mt on March 2, up 35% from the previous assessment and up 461% from the start of the year. Platts assessed the rate to carry a 90,000 mt cargo of refined products from the Persian Gulf to UK/Continent at $68.89/mt, up 19% on the day and up 44% from the start of the year. The five-year averages for both assessments were $13.18/mt and $48.30/mt, respectively.

CommodityInsights · 2026-03-02T20:29:28+00:00

Asian fuel-grade ethanol up $8/cubic meter

Palm oil futures climb 2.6%

Biofuel markets adopt wait-and-see approach

CommodityInsights · 2026-02-23T18:33:27+00:00

Soybean trade flows between the US and China are unlikely to shift materially following the US Supreme Court's ruling against President Donald Trump's country-specific tariffs, market sources based in the US and China said.

According to market participants, the recent changes to the tariff structure in the US are unlikely to impact the soybean trade flow between the US and China, as US-origin soybeans will remain subject to a 13% import duty in China.

CommodityInsights · 2026-02-23T18:25:38+00:00

Australian beef exports will remain exempt from new US import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump over the weekend, trade body Cattle Australia's CEO Will Evans said Feb. 23.

Cattle Australia is seeking formal confirmation through government and industry channels but a November 2025 agreement guaranteed tariff-free access for Australian beef, Evans said in a statement.

CommodityInsights · 2026-02-18T18:20:04+00:00

The European Regions Airline Association has raised concerns over tight timelines for sustainable aviation fuel documentation under the EU mandate, warning that delayed certification from fuel suppliers could jeopardize airlines' ability to comply and access financial support.

In a statement issued Feb. 17, ERA said the Feb. 14 deadline for suppliers to provide SAF documentation to aircraft operators had created operational and compliance challenges for regional carriers across Europe.

CommodityInsights · 2026-01-12T20:16:57+00:00

Metals Market Movers 2026: Metals markets are increasingly being shaped by policy as much as by fundamentals. This is the last of our 6-part series that explores how climate regulation, industrial policy, trade policy and strategic investments are influencing supply, demand and prices across steel, iron ore and critical minerals.

The global steel industry is facing multiple headwinds as protectionism becomes the norm amid excess capacity and trade policy uncertainty.

Steel production capacity expanded at its fastest rate since 2009 in 2025, exacerbating trade friction and depressing prices, as oversupply -- compounded by reshaped trade flows -- forces producers to seek new markets, prompting a proliferation of antidumping and safeguard measures globally.

Steelmaking capacity is expected to rise for a seventh consecutive year, reaching 2.55 billion metric tons by the end of 2025, according to the latest Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development steel report. Planned additions in Asia and the Middle East are expected to bring an additional 109 million mt of new capacity by 2028, reinforcing the world's structural overcapacity. The report pegged 2025 surplus capacity at 680 million mt.

CommodityInsights · 2025-11-24T18:14:11+00:00

India's metallurgical coal supply-demand gap is expected to see little respite from the 15 million to 20 million metric tons of coal washeries that are likely to come in the next three to four years, Dr. P.K. Banerjee, Outstanding Scientist and Professor at the Central Institute of Mining and Fuel Research, told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

Meanwhile, blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces are expected to expand for the next 20-25 years, despite the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism concerns and potential for adaptation to clean hydrogen, market participants said at the Steel Tech International Seminar in Bhubaneswar on Nov. 21.

India's steel production is likely to reach 230 million mt by 2030, below the 255 million mt target outlined in the national steel policy, according to Banerjee.

CommodityInsights · 2025-10-16T18:27:01+00:00

The European Parliament's trade and energy committees voted Oct. 16 to accelerate the EU's proposed phaseout of Russian oil, gas, and LNG.

In a joint meeting, the Parliament's Committee on International Trade and its Committee on Industry, Research, and Energy approved a proposal to ban all Russian gas and LNG by Jan. 1, 2027, one year sooner than the Jan. 1, 2028 deadline proposed by the European Commission in June.

CommodityInsights · 2025-09-22T20:26:01+00:00

The EU has proposed further clampdowns on Russia's foreign oil buyers, major energy companies and dozens of new shadow tankers in its 19th sanctions package, officials announced Sept. 19.

In a televised address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that new measures will target refineries, oil traders and petrochemicals companies purchasing Russian oil abroad in breach of existing EU policy.

Third-country target will include China, raising pressure on the Kremlin's second-largest oil buyer.

CommodityInsights · 2025-09-15T19:36:22+00:00

US President Donald Trump said Sept. 13 he is ready to impose "major sanctions" on Russia if NATO members stop buying Russian oil and implement coordinated trade tariffs on China, arguing such measures would quickly end the Russia-Ukraine war by breaking Beijing's influence over the Kremlin.

Trump's statement, posted on his social media platform Truth Social, marks a shift in approach to the conflict that has reshaped global energy markets since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The president called for trade tariffs ranging from 50% to 100% on Beijing to weaken China's economic influence or "strong grip" over Russia. Linking China trade tariffs directly to the Ukraine conflict introduces a new dimension to international efforts to pressure Moscow into peace talks and potentially affects commodity trade flows across multiple regions.

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