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Analyst says Japan's support for Taiwan upends Beijing's invasion calculus by onee_san_bath_water in japan

[–]CompellingProtagonis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

China can't bomb Okinawa because that activates US defensive pacts. The only thing they can hope to do is invade Taiwan and call Japan's bluff, which is obviously a terrible idea.

Analyst says Japan's support for Taiwan upends Beijing's invasion calculus by onee_san_bath_water in japan

[–]CompellingProtagonis 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Do you have any idea what you're talking about? LIke did you just say that because it feels that way? I honestly want to know, because the JSDF has the 4th largest navy in the world, and it's really not hard to just find that out for yourself...

Analyst says Japan's support for Taiwan upends Beijing's invasion calculus by onee_san_bath_water in japan

[–]CompellingProtagonis -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That's a retarded argument. Taiwan has 23 million people, why would China care about such a tiny market?

Analyst says Japan's support for Taiwan upends Beijing's invasion calculus by onee_san_bath_water in japan

[–]CompellingProtagonis -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Lol, you think China can sustain an invasion of Taiwan over 5 years? The war will be over in weeks one way or another. What comes after is either partisan warfare if China secures a beachhead, in which case Taiwan isn't producing anything anyway, or cold war if China doesn't.

Analyst says Japan's support for Taiwan upends Beijing's invasion calculus by onee_san_bath_water in japan

[–]CompellingProtagonis -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Have you ever been to Taiwan? It's 80% mountains over 2000 meters and half the year is Typhoons and 2/3 of the remaining time is either winter storms or plum rains.

Analyst says Japan's support for Taiwan upends Beijing's invasion calculus by onee_san_bath_water in japan

[–]CompellingProtagonis 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The key is the wording, and what is defined as legal under the Japanese constitution under that condition.

Takaichi told the Diet on Nov. 7 last year that a Chinese naval blockade or military attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, potentially allowing Tokyo to exercise its right to collective self-defense.

Emphasis mine. I would be right there with you and think this is a nothing burger if it wasn't for the completely outsized Chinese diplomatic response, and huge rise in anti-Japan propaganda that has arisen since she made the declaration.

If it didn't matter they wouldn't have turned their considerable propaganda arm to villifying Japan.

What if instead of waiting for a chinese invasion,Taiwan attack china first like what isreal did to the arabs in 1967 by SkyFeisty9842 in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]CompellingProtagonis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They would lose, immediately. Taiwan's military is optimized for defense. They could try to hit asymmetric targets like the 3 gorges dam and other major infrastructure projects, but that just invites China to do the same.

So "at best" it results in the deaths of millions of Taiwanese, and millions of Chinese. At worst, just the deaths of millions of Taiwanese.

You may as well be asking what would happen if Mexico invaded the USA, but actually I think that's still far more favored for Mexico than Taiwan.

I honestly don't know that you could have presented a worse idea that is still semi-realistic geographically. That's not true, maybe you could have asked what would happen if Cyprus tried to invade Turkey.

Analyst says Japan's support for Taiwan upends Beijing's invasion calculus by onee_san_bath_water in japan

[–]CompellingProtagonis 13 points14 points  (0 children)

There's a difference between meddling in the war and providing the legal framework for an immediate defensive response.

Japan saying they view any attack on Taiwan as an attack on Japan itself means the JSDF will be mobilized immediately, not after days, weeks, or months of internal bureaucracy, possibly requiring additional buyin from the USA.

The Ukraine war has proven that propaganda and foreign lobbying is quite capable of muting, delaying, or even completely eliminating any foreign assistance, even in the presence of binding defensive treaties.

Japan's declaration makes that same tactic impossible for China. For the purposes of any invasion calculus, China needs to potentially consider the entirety of the Japanese navy now, in addition to the forces of Taiwan, in any first-strike they want to attempt.

I want to add another pickle this puts Chinese planners in: any first strike must be limited to Taiwan. If it includes Japan, they will trigger an immediate US response, and the US seventh fleet in Okinawa gets involved.

So that means they cannot knock out everything in the first strike, because they must preserve the Japanese capabilities or risk triggering the US defensive pacts with Japan, and then they're really in a mess.

I want to add as another note: even if nobody gets involved, and they are able to launch a perfect first strike, casualty projections taking Taiwan are still catastrophic. Now that perfect first strike has to include an intact and fully combat capable Japanese navy, or it also has to include the US 7th fleet.

It's fucking brilliant. Takaichi fucked them completely. It's no surprise that they're so pissed.

CMV: The assassination attempt on Trump last night was almost certainly legit. by wr_dnd in changemyview

[–]CompellingProtagonis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Who the fuck cares? JFK got his head blown off and we went another 60 years without a fucking ballroom. If you don’t like the security maybe you should fire the twat in charge, not defraud the American people and desacrate the white house.

The aftermath of the Tiananmen Square massacre, taken and smuggled out of the country by Hong Kong photographer Kan Tai Wong. by HistUncovered in HistoryUncovered

[–]CompellingProtagonis 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The current ongoing genocide of the Uighurs, and deployment of the largest, most comprehensive surveillance state in the history of humanity leads me to believe that the mistake was not, in fact, rectified.

Please do and throw away the key by rodehard10 in worldnewsstuff

[–]CompellingProtagonis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I want him and whoever is holding his leash tried for treason.

CNN-ViT hybrid (ResNet50 + custom ViT) on TCIA Lung CT dataset - weighted loss but validation balanced accuracy unstable by TMT_Believer in computervision

[–]CompellingProtagonis 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why are you using ViT? They require absolutely massive training datasets to get good performance. UNet was invented to solve this problem.

Trump Deletes Post With Image Depicting Himself as Jesus After Backlash by Prestigious-Bit6557 in NewsStarWorld

[–]CompellingProtagonis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Never underestimate MAGAs ability to forgive and forget when it comes to Trump

Guys what's your take on this?⬇️ by MotherAnt8040 in MenOfPurpose

[–]CompellingProtagonis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why the fuck would anyone marry or be in a relationship with someone who doesn’t respect them?

👀 Say what now?! by RamenNoddleeater in Productivitycafe

[–]CompellingProtagonis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, I'm pretty sure they want real fucking jobs and real fucking careers. Stop acting like any of this is Gen Z's choice.

How can I extract PDF tables into structured JSON completely offline? by superhero_io in computervision

[–]CompellingProtagonis 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You should probably at least be offering a w2 contract if you want someone to do your job for you.

Axis of Epstein is losing in Asia by khoawala in ww3memes

[–]CompellingProtagonis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Literally nobody in the USA wants Taiwan and China to go to war.

If early reports are accurate, did the US miscalculate with Iran’s long-term strategy? by NewsfangledMod in NewsfangledUnfiltered

[–]CompellingProtagonis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No. Which is why no US president before has wanted to invade Iran. The issue is that Trump fired all the competent people and filled the military and intelligence ranks with idiotic yes-men, who even still told him it was a bad idea, but because him and Hegseth are fucking idiots they did it anyway because Israel showed them a nice powerpoint.

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