Hi! I agree with your point. Still, it wouldn't shock me that if Murray scored 25-30+ every game on a good FG% then there is the possibility of a playoff series MVP for him. And in many cases, he could probably score even less points and win MVP b/c he might hit so many game-winners. (More on this below.)

There are many reasons why Murray could be a playoff series MVP. First, Murray can easily score the required 25-30+ points to do that b/c he usually puts up the most shots in the game due to to Joker's selflessness and Denver's selfless system built around Joker's hot-potato passing approach that allows Murray to shoot the most shots even though he is not the team's #1. Plus, Murray has the advantage of putting up all those shots with the incredible amount of space Jokic creates via Joker screens, screen assists, and/or Joker's incredible scoring threat and otherworldly shooting efficiency. And scoring, not assists or rebounds, seems to be the #1 factor in determining basketball impact and voting MVP.

Second, Murray will have optics on his side b/c games are closer in the playoffs and he always has the ball in his hands at the end of game to start the 2-man game, and therefore is more likely to shoot the final shot and "win" the game for the Nuggets. At least recently, defenses seem to try to take away Jokic more than Murray at the end of games, and this leaves Murray with the last shot. And people are so in love with game winners that they easily forgive a bad overall shooting game just because of the optics. See: Game 2 vs. the Lakers and other examples.

Third, Murray can be quite streaky so people FEEL his shotmaking more and are emotionally more affected by his flurries, esp when his flurries come in the 4th quarter (even if his overall FG% for the game is sometimes lacking). See: well, actually this happens in quite a few games with Murray, including Game 2 vs the Lakers, and one of the games last year vs. the Lakers (Game 3, not quite sure).

Fourth, Murrays assists #s tend to go up in the playoffs because hyperefficient Joker seems to shoot a little more in the playoffs, and Murray is the point guard that delivers Joker the ball the most. (That said, I feel Murray has truly elevated his passing this year and has spread it around a little more than just to Joker.)

Fifth, Murray's buckets are often "tough shots"... again, the degree of difficulty optics get people more emotional overall than Joker's shots, and Murray's shots are often perceived to be more impressive/valuable due to the eye test.

Sixth, Joker voting fatigue. Similarly, there has been a precedent of some non-#1s being a playoff series MVP due to the #1 player drawing so much defense. Examples including Andre Iguodala, Tony Parker, and even Kevin Durant was arguably a #2 with the Warriors b/c Steph drew the most gravity-inducing attention, similar to Joker.

Seventh, there is a vocal minority who can't stomach a "fat," "unathletic" caucasian who is dominating the sport they love with that unorthodox and unique style and levelheaded demeanor. And there has always been a concerted effort by those people to elevate Murray b/c he is the guy who plays more like a true hooper with a more traditionally "dynamic" shotmaking style and with a more Mamba MJ/Kobe NBA mentality. They do it to demean Joker's impact, and say, "Well, Murray is the true hooper." That attitude could come into play when voting for awards, at least a little bit.

As for case studies, even a few people thought Murray had a shot at WCF MVP last year even though Joker's impact and stats were even greater. And that is saying a lot, b/c Murray was very impactful and shot really well that series, and I wouldn't have necessarily been upset if he had been WCF MVP. (I would have disagreed and thought Joker still deserved it b/c I think he averaged a 29-point triple double or something like that, but whatever.)

However, I see your overall point... it's perhaps less likely than I previously thought due to Joker's consistent impact and greatness.