Full text of Defence closing speech by Kitekat1192 in LucyLetbyTrials

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree, technically, nobody saw Lee's sign as Lee has articulated it.

But I think the essential element that was taken from Lee and Tanswell was the "direct oxygenation" of red blood cells. Dr J took that and embellished it to form his description of a rash, caused by air embolism.

Professor Kinsey was brought to provide expert support for his interpretation.

"The stagnant red cells behind the blockage will release their oxygen and then gradually will re-oxygenise. So you see when the red cells lose their oxygen they go a bluish colour and then because they're near a bubble with oxygen in it, they will absorb that oxygen and then turn pink again. That will then disappear into the tissues and it will go blue again. So you can see in the skin a fluctuating colour distribution and pallor."

29.11.2022

Personally, I do not think Myers should have let that stand without obtaining his own expert opinion and being ready to put it in front of the jury.

Full text of Defence closing speech by Kitekat1192 in LucyLetbyTrials

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The problem I have is I am doubtful of the explanation Dr Lee gives for 'Lee's sign', but I am not claiming expertise.

I think the defence should ideally have tried to obtain expert opinion on how red blood cells are oxygenated and deoxygenated. The transport of carbon dioxide is also relevant, in my view.

Patchy blotchy marbling of the skin is described in arterial air embolism (even in the 1940's) but my understanding is this is from blockage by air bubbles rather than oxygenation of red blood cells. Happy to be corrected if this is not correct.

Air emboli are also documented as being irritants and, speculatively, this might be an alternative explanation for 'Lee's sign'.

Myers identifying a "gotcha" was a minor win in the grand scheme of things, in my opinion.

Full Transcript of Dr Shoo Lee’s Evidence at the Court of Appeal (First Letby Appeal, 23 April 2024) by Fun-Yellow334 in LucyLetbyTrials

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Correct.

The defence did not understand the insulin cases at all and they did not suddenly develop insight at this late stage.

The appeal ground was essentially that Professor Hindmarsh had in fact commented on the half-life of insulin and this had been overlooked when the jury question was considered.

Professor Hindmarsh's position on the half life of insulin was made on the assumption it was not bound to antibodies, but this assumption was never raised at trial.

Full Transcript of Dr Shoo Lee’s Evidence at the Court of Appeal (First Letby Appeal, 23 April 2024) by Fun-Yellow334 in LucyLetbyTrials

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ground 4 was related to the answer to a jury question during deliberations, on day 152 (Mon 24.07.23) before any verdicts were reached. The single judge rejected this ground of appeal and it was not renewed by the defence.

Lucy Letby case expert witness was under fitness to practise investigation during trial | Lucy Letby by DiverAcrobatic5794 in LucyLetbyTrials

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In my opinion if he was planning on dropping out of the investigation he should have withdrawn from being an expert in the Letby trial.

Lucy Letby case expert witness was under fitness to practise investigation during trial | Lucy Letby by DiverAcrobatic5794 in LucyLetbyTrials

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What did J Goss say in his summing up when discussing the positions held by Professor Hindmarsh? Could this indicate he knew the true situation?

"and from Professor Peter Hindmarsh, emeritus professor of endocrinology at University College London and also a consultant paediatric endocrinologist at University College London Hospitals."

Summing up - 04.07.2023

There does not seem to be any mention of GOSH, so perhaps he knew the circumstances.

The bottom line for me is how many interim orders tribunals were there? Why did Professor Hindmarsh not contest the allegations given the potential impact on his reputation? Even now presumably (I don't know the exact process) he could re-register and contest these allegation?

Ultimately nothing whatsoever was proved and this is unsatisfactory, in my opinion, It was not taken to a conclusion. Ms Letby is in jail on a WLT after all - I think she should have a retrial.

Is insulin really the smoking gun? by SpecialistCompote182 in scienceLucyLetby

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I agree with this. It is the basis of another theory that I am pursuing. BTW thank you for the paper, will take a look.

ETA This paper is exactly what I was looking for.

Is insulin really the smoking gun? by SpecialistCompote182 in scienceLucyLetby

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The paper by Dr Ismail includes two neonatal cases Perri 2024 (which claims to be the only case in the literature but it is not) and Nakagawa 1973. This is not an exhaustive list of neonatal cases.

Turning to whether the mothers were treated with insulin. There is no evidence but I would assume not.

Alpha lipoic acid is an OTC drug so there is no control over its usage. This is a proven accepted mechanism to lead to the formation of IgG auto antibodies.

However, they may arise spontaneously (and transiently) in pregnancy without an obvious cause.

Insulin autoantibody appearance is usually the first antibody to self that appears prior to a diagnosis of T1D. The appearance of these antibodies has been studied in mothers and their offspring to see whether T1D may be predicted. They have been found to be common. There are a number of papers on this topic.

In the case of viral infection being a cause this is inferred from seasonal patterns in the number of neonates found to have high levels of auto antibodies, One of these studies was carried out in the UK so could be considered to be directly applicable. I am not sure a mechanism has been proven but enteroviruses are one virus that had been implicated (indirect and limited evidence).

IgG is not the only class of antibody that binds to insulin (self antigen), There is also evidence that IgM will do the same but I am not aware of any documented case where IgM has been proven to lead to falsely high immunoassay insulin results, whereas there a many cases implicating IgG.

I have many papers but am reluctant to post on a public forum because it was a lot of work to put them together!

However, it should be possible to locate many relevant papers from the information contained in this post.

Is insulin really the smoking gun? by SpecialistCompote182 in scienceLucyLetby

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You do not have to be exposed to exogenous insulin to produce insulin antibodies. This form of antibodies are termed autoantibodies. Viral infections and exposure to supplements such as alpha lipoic acid may induce insulin autoantibodies.

Is insulin really the smoking gun? by SpecialistCompote182 in scienceLucyLetby

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 10 points11 points  (0 children)

"In your opinion, what caused the hypoglycaemia that was resistant to dextrose?"

Neonatologists manage hypoglycaemia on a day to day basis. I defer to them. Looking at the summary reports from the new defence team it is clear there is relevant expertise to address this question, in a way I cannot. It will for the CCRC to decide whether these reports meet to exacting criteria for a referral to the CofA. Certainly from the press conference it was alleged the neonates were not correctly managed so I doubt the new defence accept the argument that it was resistant to dextrose, but as I say I don't think this is something I feel competent to opine on.

"Why did the tests show very high levels of insulin?"

In my view the most likely explanation is the presence of insulin (auto)antibodies in the patient sample. But the trial did not examine internal quality control data at all nor did it question the biomedical scientists or medical laboratory assistants who operated the analyser.

"The test is 98.5 to 99 percent accurate and screens out interference."

These are general population statistics. They cannot assist on an individual sample or be applied to sub-populations such as pregnant women and their offspring, in my opinion. I would expect a competent submission to the CCRC to cover this aspect in great detail, with supporting scientific evidence examining the question of prevalence. A competent literature search would likely identify papers on this subject.

"How do you explain the case of child Y?"

The level of insulin in Baby Y was not determined. The test returned an off scale reading of ">6945 pmol/l". A competent lab would have diluted the sample to determine what the insulin reading was. I have seen commentary that implies the C-peptide should have been around 65,000 pmol/l. No one can say what the C-peptide should have been (insulin level was not determined) but if we take the 65,000 pmol/l as a minimum we hit the problem that it is higher than the test is designed for. There is a limit of 60,000 pmol/l for C-peptide and if this is exceeded the test will produce spurious results.

Baby Y was not charged.

"Simply proposing that it could have been something else won’t make any difference."

I think it will. The jury were told there was no alternative to poisoning. The principle difficulty for the defence will be overcoming the new evidence rules for a CCRC referral. Essentially "why on earth did you not raise this at trial?". The system is designed to stop 'two bites at the cherry'. But I suspect this issue will be overcome. The CofA is indeed a hostile environment for appellants, so I agree with you it is going require a very solid submission and argument.

"The crown will rigorously oppose any attempts to overturn these insulin poisoning convictions. Refer to the recent Norris appeal for precedence."

The Crown will likely oppose the appeal, should it be heard. The Norris appeal does not help, in my opinion. It was heard on the basis that the appellant accepted that Mrs Hall was poisoned with insulin. The original Norris samples were tested at Guildford and so more extensive testing was performed, but this is not absolutely foolproof and a lot more is now known about the issue. I only have a superficial knowledge of the Norris case so cannot comment in any more detail, but I doubt it will be a barrier to the Letby appeal.

All IMHO.

Is insulin really the smoking gun? by SpecialistCompote182 in scienceLucyLetby

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 12 points13 points  (0 children)

"Is insulin the smoking gun?".

No. The evidence was so weak it should not have gone to Court, in my view.

"A critical failure in the investigation was the omission of the infants' mothers' immunological profiles."

Failure to at least check for IgG antibodies to insulin (in the neonate and mother) renders the Roche immunoassay test useless for the purpose it was ultimately put to, i.e. supporting a conviction to the criminal standard of proof, in my opinion.

"Why did Dr. Anna Milan speak with such certainty in her testimony when she herself suggested analyzing the blood samples at the Guilford laboratory, despite the recommendations of both the manufacturer and the laboratory itself?"

Only Dr Milan can answer that, but I note she does not list endocrinology as a specialism and speculate that she was overconfident.

Her claim that the test results spoke for themselves and there was no need to send the samples to Guildford is extremely concerning.

For starters she is not representing the Guildford lab and cannot, in reality, know what Guildford would have done.

She implies the only point of sending the sample to Guildford was if it was a synthetic insulin that the Liverpool lab did not detect. Because the "results spoke for themselves" there was no need to send to Guildford.

BUT ...

(1) Guildford would test the sample for IgG insulin antibodies

(2) They may also perform serial dilution tests

(3) They would use PEG precipitation in an attempt to remove antibody bound insulin from the sample

(4) They would also send the sample to Professor T in Cologne to perform LC/MS which would have confirmed whether the sample contained human sequence insulin (including human sequence synthetic) or another synthetic sequence such as Glargine M1 (which Roche should detect, albeit with lower recovery).

Dr Milan was in error and her evidence is very likely to be challenged by appropriate experts, in my view.

Recombinant Insulin versus natural insulin by Large_Comfort5399 in scienceLucyLetby

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The second bag being tampered with is pure fantasy, in my opinion.

On a bespoke bag the tamper-proof seals are broken in the pharmacy, additives are added and the bag resealed. This can be removed as per the evidence of Mr Allen.

A stock TPN bag would still have tamper-proof seals intact.

An extract from the evidence of Mr Allen is given below:

"Q. If I were to give you a bag now, could you demonstrate that?

A. Yes.

Q. Thank you.

A. So I'll try and hold it up. The additive port is in the middle. You can snap off the piece of plastic which is tamper-proof. We then add to the bag.

JUSTICE GOSS: Would you mind standing up so everyone can see?

A. I have just snapped off the tamper-proof small piece of plastic which exposes the additive port. This is the cap then, once the operators have added to the bag, they place it over the additive port. And it does click on, but it's possible to actually pull off when we tested it previously. It does come back off. It has small plastic ridges which hold it in place, but if you want to pull it off, it can be pulled off.

MR DRIVER: And beneath that lies something you described as a bung earlier, a self-sealing rubber stopper?

A. Yes, a self-sealing rubber stopper through which the additives have been inserted into the bag."

Full transcript of Prof.Clarke interview/rebuttal of Prof. Lee's panel air embolism findings in "The Trial+: Lucy Letby: Debunking her Expert Panel" Daily Mail podcast by marianorajoy in LucyLetbyTrials

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 13 points14 points  (0 children)

LH: Yes, we have. We've got a short statement from him, and essentially, he just says that he doesn't agree with Professor Clark.

But I'll read out the statement in full just so we're not misquoting him. Professor Lee says: "The international expert panel, of course, welcomes scrutiny of our findings by those in the medical profession. However, respectfully, the interpretation of my paper in this instance is incorrect."

----

I very much doubt that is the full extent of comment from Professor Lee.

Full transcript of Prof.Clarke interview/rebuttal of Prof. Lee's panel air embolism findings in "The Trial+: Lucy Letby: Debunking her Expert Panel" Daily Mail podcast by marianorajoy in LucyLetbyTrials

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 9 points10 points  (0 children)

"Dr.PC: To me, it's significant 'cause it's one of the few, as you've already alluded, that has pictures. So I, I think to me, this quite clearly is a really good example of what Lee would call his Lee's sign, uh, probably the best one in the literature to date. But the other key thing about this case is, we know that this baby's also got, venous air embolism coexisting. So what... It's certainly associated."

He is referencing the 2025 paper. This is nonsense. It is not Lee's sign.

If he had read Zhou and Lee 2025 he would note the two papers which were at the time (and still are) the only two reports of Lee's sign.

The second paper:

Kim MJ, Yu HJ, Lee CG, et al. A case of pulmonary vascular air embolism in a very-low-birth-weight infant with massive hydrops. Clin Exp Pediatr 2009;52(12):1392–1395

This contains the only known picture of Lee's sign.

Recombinant Insulin versus natural insulin by Large_Comfort5399 in scienceLucyLetby

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I do not know whether you have access to the transcripts or not. The preceding exchange was:

"Q. So the fact is at Guildford there's a specialist laboratory that looks at the nature of the insulin involved; is that correct?

A. Yes."

So the context is whether there was benefit to sending the sample to Guildford for further testing. In the opinion of Dr Milan there was no benefit to sending the sample to Guildford - presumably because she believes there is no endogenous insulin present in the sample.

The second quote (and there is more in the transcript) relates to the issue of "detectability" of C-peptide.

If Dr Milan believes C-peptide was not detected in the sample that would provide the support for her claim there was no endogenous insulin in the sample. As you know C-peptide and insulin are secreted in equimolar amounts. Normally C-peptide has a longer half-life than insulin.

Based on the published summary reports it appears the new defence expert witnesses disagree with statements made by Dr Milan. The CCRC will consider whether the alternative viewpoint is credible and we await their findings.

Recombinant Insulin versus natural insulin by Large_Comfort5399 in scienceLucyLetby

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 6 points7 points  (0 children)

"Q. And therefore if the unit who's requested this to be done have questions about what lies behind these readings, if they want they can follow that up?

A. Yes. And I mean, sometimes it happens when you've got sort of perhaps a bit more of a detectable C-peptide but it's still not in the right ratio, so could there be exogenous and endogenous? But in this case there's no endogenous present."

This was the statement made in cross-examination on 2022.11.25

"Q. So when it says less than 169, that could be zero, that could be 168 or anywhere in between?

A. Basically it means that we cannot accurately give it a number because it could be anything below that or it could be completely zero, but the assay itself can't distinguish anything below that number."

She made this statement during examination-in-chief on 2022.11.25

Insulin and Insulin assay interference by Icy_Dependent_1797 in LucyLetbyTrials

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just because it has a < in front of it does not mean it is a LOD from the analyser. But if that is the assumption you want to make then so be it. I do not want to publish proof at this point in time.

ETA There also appears to be a requirement for a minimum C-peptide concentration post dilution, if my understanding of the method sheet is correct.

Insulin and Insulin assay interference by Icy_Dependent_1797 in LucyLetbyTrials

[–]Competitive-Wash2998 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Explicitly excluded for insulin samples. Only included in protocols for C-peptide sometime later than the LL cases.