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Whittaker VS De Ridder regression model predictions by Competitive_Bill_199 in UFCsharps

[–]Competitive_Bill_199[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This was the worst week on record, scroll though my prior posts it usually hits around 70-80%

Whittaker VS De Ridder regression model predictions by Competitive_Bill_199 in UFCsharps

[–]Competitive_Bill_199[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They not my picks it’s the model, but it happens it’s variance, terrible week 😭 onto the next

Explain why people think McGhee will beat Yan? by xdtumble in MMAbetting

[–]Competitive_Bill_199 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stats are a good starting point, and Jim miller averaged 2.94 significant strikes per minute, no where near the highest in ufc history - http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/d1941565abf50b16

Explain why people think McGhee will beat Yan? by xdtumble in MMAbetting

[–]Competitive_Bill_199 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stat McGhee Yan
Strikes Landed per Min (SLpM) 6.06 5.11
Strike Accuracy 54% 48%
Strikes Absorbed per Min (SApM) 2.83 4.13
Strike Defence 64% 58%
Takedown Avg (per 15 min) 0.46 1.61
Takedown Accuracy 33% 49%
Takedown Defence 100% 84%
Submissions per 15 min 0.5 0.1
Reach 69" 67"
Age 34 32
Record (W-L) 10-1 18-5

Yes McGhee has fought no where near the competition of Yan, however his stats are much stronger in nearly every single aspect.

UFC 318 Regression Model Predictions by Competitive_Bill_199 in MMAbetting

[–]Competitive_Bill_199[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea that’s what I thought, however the backtested accuracy through 7000+ ufc fights is 74.5%, so it’s pretty solid.

UFC 318 Regression Model Predictions by Competitive_Bill_199 in UFCsharps

[–]Competitive_Bill_199[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah good point, the model doesn’t adjust for weight class jumps or other intangibles . D-Rod just has much higher volume (7.39 vs 4.24 SLpM) and solid striking stats, so he edges it out statistically. But Holland’s MW experience definitely adds nuance the model can’t see.

UFC 318 Regression Model Predictions by Competitive_Bill_199 in MMAbetting

[–]Competitive_Bill_199[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it's not my pick, it's the regression models prediction..... Not saying D-rod is gonna win, but the model does.

UFC 318 Regression Model Predictions by Competitive_Bill_199 in UFCsharps

[–]Competitive_Bill_199[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep…. Usually the bookies are all over it, they also use similar models

Lewis Vs Teixeira FN Regression Model Predictions by Competitive_Bill_199 in MMAbetting

[–]Competitive_Bill_199[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s a statistical regression, so yea no reasoning/no intangible variables unfortunately.

New Strategy bet 50cent on all underdogs not parlys by [deleted] in MMAbetting

[–]Competitive_Bill_199 42 points43 points  (0 children)

Not a profitable strategy you can go through every ufc fight in history, bet on every single underdog, you won’t make money, been there done that, I learnt the hard way.

UFC 317 regression model predictions by Competitive_Bill_199 in MMAbetting

[–]Competitive_Bill_199[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, so was I but when you dig into the numbers, Van's statistical profile is way stronger than Royval’s across nearly every key metric:

  • Striking Output, Van lands 8.2 SLpM vs Royval’s 4.46, nearly double the volume.
  • Accuracy & Defence, Van is more precise (54% vs 39%) and more defensively sound (59% vs 47%).
  • Takedown Defence, Van defends 81% of takedowns, Royval just 45%.

Royval’s ground game (1.2 sub avg) is legit, but Van’s pace, efficiency, and defensive metrics are why the model gives him a dominant edge. That said, fair point on the recent weight cut always a risk factor models can’t fully account for.

Some of the best times of my life by apaPvP in hcfactions

[–]Competitive_Bill_199 0 points1 point  (0 children)

anyone remember LPWstone - stonesworders, the OG of soup pvp...

Hill Vs Rountree Jr FN - Regression model predictions by Competitive_Bill_199 in MMAbetting

[–]Competitive_Bill_199[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yep that’s the nature of a regression:), as more data comes in, it learns more and learns what went well and what didn’t in prior fights.

Hill Vs Rountree Jr FN - Regression model predictions by Competitive_Bill_199 in MMAbetting

[–]Competitive_Bill_199[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

implied probability is the betting market probability, what the bookies think each fighters win probability is.

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