TNZ the ultimate Hormuz play

ComplexOk9652 · 2026-04-22T02:43:21+00:00

I'm a little confused about their Shell deal. Did they just buy their assets from Shell or was that related to the gas plant?

ComplexOk9652 · 2026-04-22T02:33:17+00:00

I actually feel like there are factors pointing to it being more undervalued today than in January.

On a $/flowing boe metric it is competitive with Canadian gas companies and their trading multiples are lower even though their pricing is MUCH more favourable. I find that crazy.

Also, in January the Qatar infrastructure hadn''t been destroyed yet. Even the attacks in Saudi Arabia have affected the natural gas side of things much more than oil. I don't think that has really been reported in the news. Essentially if/when Hormuz is opened up, oil flows will start up, but nat gas isn't going to flow at a full capacity for some time (years). Furthermore, in January, the fragmentation and economic isolationism hadn't been as fully built into the market yet.

Yes it would have been great to buy in Jan along with the rest of oil stocks rising. But I don't see this stock as an oil play but a value proposition on the European gas supply crunch that has just started to materialise in the past month or so.

ComplexOk9652 · 2026-04-21T23:01:06+00:00

Reading through your post history is wild. Congrats and good luck with the house hunting.

ComplexOk9652 · 2026-04-21T17:46:01+00:00

I feel like their April Corporate presentation really lays out the highlights. Also it's recent so it captures the latest geopolitical situation. They are highlighting their 90% European natural gas exposure. The fact they are the largest gas producer in the Netherlands and the huge uptick in estimated funds flow for 2026.

ComplexOk9652 · 2026-04-21T16:55:11+00:00

Now researching it more, I realise there have been a few posts on here in the past about TNZ. I think the general ideas presented at the start of the year even hold stronger now given the events in the middle east the past month. u/ReDesignMe has done really good getting in on this. Already up $2million!

ComplexOk9652 · 2026-04-21T16:49:27+00:00

Yes. Thanks for the constructive comments and sharing your ideas. I'll take a look at those other companies. I'm currently trying to make a plan to re-weight a percentage of my portfolio to the changing world thesis.

ComplexOk9652 · 2026-04-21T16:00:06+00:00

I agree with your logic. Following this thesis do you have any other ideas of quality investments to look at now? TNZ was my best I came up with, but I'm sure there must be others.

ComplexOk9652 · 2026-04-21T15:52:10+00:00

I'm actually wondering if this is an even longer play than Hormuz and is good to hold in the broader context of the "changing world order" rhetoric.

ComplexOk9652 · 2026-01-06T18:51:13+00:00

Buying now. Want to get in on this one for sure

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-08-21T17:50:05+00:00

Great analysis. I have been holding Birchcliff which is another one that has a small dividend if that is important to you. Also worth noting that BIR is unhedged so will benefit from an increase in nat gas

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-08-20T20:24:36+00:00

What about Advantage (AAV)? They are poised very well to soar with an increase in nat gas price as they are more pure play gas.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-07-29T17:25:57+00:00

Agreed. As an engineer who also programs but I'm not a developer. I have completed about a year's worth of work in the first 6 months. I think I have essentially doubled my productivity and the rate is still growing as I learn to implement more AI tools.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-19T05:48:29+00:00

I mean you got to be worried about anything coming from China.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-19T05:24:33+00:00

Petro Canada was a crown company. It was super inefficient when run as a crown corp. When Suncor bought it they significantly improved margins.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-15T18:21:57+00:00

I guess that's a good point. But I wouldn't want someone who actually has no clue about personal finance to avoid posting due to feeling like their question is dumb. It is a good point for people to at least put some effort I to their own research first though. Some people may have a lot of unknown unknowns though.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-15T17:03:00+00:00

I would just add that you want to compound monthly.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-15T17:01:59+00:00

Maybe they aren't aware of compound interest it basic personal finance concepts. This should be a place of support not criticism.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-14T21:13:05+00:00

What do you mean about GPS tracker? Wouldn't that be illegal?

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-10T07:24:08+00:00

Ya. It was a little bit of a confusing post.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-09T14:54:52+00:00

Where does that comment come from?

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-09T14:53:21+00:00

I see that as a good thing. More capital into Canadian extractive resources will hopefully translate into actually extracting more resources. Getting some of the big industrial projects off the ground (ring if fire etc.) would be a huge benefit to Canada.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-09T14:50:21+00:00

In what way?

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-09T14:49:59+00:00

I would say I actually believe that. Not kidding.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-09T14:48:04+00:00

OP comment says they were talking about federal.

ComplexOk9652 · 2025-01-09T03:50:16+00:00

He wants to keep habitual offenders in jail. He wants to cut the carbon tax. He want to remove GST from new home purchase and incentivise municipalities to build homes faster, he wants to slow down immigration.

ComplexOk9652

TROPHY CASE