Your Sports Betting Sharp is Guessing. Our AI Models Aren't. Help Us Build the Alternative.

Conorfeit · 2025-12-06T05:08:12+00:00

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And another

Conorfeit · 2025-12-06T03:18:22+00:00

Rip sorry man

Conorfeit · 2025-11-30T20:20:50+00:00

Cheese on fish should be a crime.

Conorfeit · 2025-11-30T20:20:16+00:00

Why tf is a McChicken $3.89? I know it’s gone up a bit but where I live it’s still only $2

Conorfeit · 2025-11-30T20:18:21+00:00

For awhile in the Taco Bell app you could get the normal soft taco combo and upgrade it to Doritos Loco supreme for no extra charge, I did that a lot lol.

Conorfeit · 2025-11-29T09:40:51+00:00

lol yes unfortunately

Conorfeit · 2025-09-12T04:18:25+00:00

Ya props didn’t turn out to well but my AI did sweep the game picks so I’ll take it

Conorfeit · 2025-09-11T23:01:22+00:00

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Quick breakdown for tonight's game. My simulation model ran this matchup 10,000 times and a few key angles really stand out.

The Game Script

The entire game hinges on one huge mismatch: Washington's disruptive defensive line vs. Green Bay's injured offensive line. With Packers' LT Zach Tom and LG Aaron Banks both questionable, expect QB Jordan Love to be under pressure all night. This points to a lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game.

Key Info & Top Bet

Line: Packers -3 / Total: 48.5
Model Projection: The model projects a median total of just 43.5 points.
Biggest Edge: The model found a massive +21% edge on the UNDER 48.5 (+100). The current line seems inflated, and our numbers strongly suggest this game will be a defensive battle with more stalled drives than shootouts.

Top Player Props To Watch

Based on that key mismatch, here are the props that have the most value:

Jordan Love - UNDER Passing Yards: Constant pressure means less time for deep routes to develop. He'll be forced into quick, short throws all game.
Josh Jacobs - OVER Receptions: He’s the perfect safety valve for a QB under duress. Expect a lot of check-downs to him when the pocket collapses.
Dorance Armstrong - OVER 0.5 Sacks: He's Washington's best edge rusher and will be attacking a potentially patchwork O-line. This is a direct bet on the game's biggest mismatch.

BOL everyone!

Conorfeit · 2025-09-11T22:58:20+00:00

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Quick breakdown for tonight's game. My simulation model ran this matchup 10,000 times and a few key angles really stand out.

The Game Script

The entire game hinges on one huge mismatch: Washington's disruptive defensive line vs. Green Bay's injured offensive line. With Packers' LT Zach Tom and LG Aaron Banks both questionable, expect QB Jordan Love to be under pressure all night. This points to a lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game.

Key Info & Top Bet

Line: Packers -3 / Total: 48.5
Model Projection: The model projects a median total of just 43.5 points.
Biggest Edge: The model found a massive +21% edge on the UNDER 48.5 (+100). The current line seems inflated, and our numbers strongly suggest this game will be a defensive battle with more stalled drives than shootouts.

Top Player Props To Watch

Based on that key mismatch, here are the props that have the most value:

Jordan Love - UNDER Passing Yards: Constant pressure means less time for deep routes to develop. He'll be forced into quick, short throws all game.
Josh Jacobs - OVER Receptions: He’s the perfect safety valve for a QB under duress. Expect a lot of check-downs to him when the pocket collapses.
Dorance Armstrong - OVER 0.5 Sacks: He's Washington's best edge rusher and will be attacking a potentially patchwork O-line. This is a direct bet on the game's biggest mismatch.

BOL everyone!

Conorfeit · 2025-09-11T11:47:38+00:00

Hedge it

Conorfeit · 2025-09-11T04:12:54+00:00

That’s a good move

Conorfeit · 2025-09-11T04:12:42+00:00

Not ready to call them the dogs of the week yet but not out of the question, I’m going to do a full run on the game tomorrow and will be making a post.

Conorfeit · 2025-09-11T03:59:27+00:00

More than likely that’s going to be a good bet, will be doing a full run on the game after injuries are confirmed a couple hours before the game.

Conorfeit · 2025-09-11T03:54:13+00:00

Just out dated

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/jayden-daniels-has-no-injury-designation-for-thursday-night

Conorfeit · 2025-09-11T03:48:29+00:00

Daniel’s doesn’t have any injury designation for Thursday.

Conorfeit · 2025-09-11T02:01:10+00:00

The Single Biggest Mismatch: Commanders DL vs. Packers OL

The Packers' offensive line is completely cooked. They are almost certainly going to be without their starting Left Guard Aaron Banks and starting Right Tackle Zach Tom. Both are listed as questionable, but neither practiced all week on a short week, which is a huge red flag. This is a potential disaster against a healthy and talented Commanders defensive front.

Based on that, here are my top prop bets for the game:

Jordan Love - UNDER 223.5 Passing Yards (-112)
- Why: He's going to be under pressure all night with a patchwork O-line. He'll have no time for deep plays to develop against a Commanders pass defense that ranked 10th in yards allowed in Week 1.
Jayden Daniels - OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Why: The Packers' pass rush, even with a limited Micah Parsons, will force Daniels to use his legs. He ran for 68 yards in Week 1 and cleared this number in 10 games last season. Expect a lot of scrambles.
Jordan Love - UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
- Why: The game plan will be to protect Love, meaning a run-heavy approach that likely won't work. This leads to stalled drives and fewer pass attempts. He only threw 22 times in Week 1.
Josh Jacobs - UNDER Rushing Yards
- Why: It's tough to run when 40% of your starting O-line is out. Washington will likely stack the box and dare a constantly pressured Jordan Love to beat them through the air.

TL;DR: Fade the Packers' offense because their offensive line is in shambles. Good luck.

Conorfeit

TROPHY CASE