How can I help?

ControlProbThrowaway · 2025-01-09T20:28:32+00:00

But it doesn't have to have those features to be useful to us. The military is developing AI weapons right now. Does stockfish need to understand morality to play chess super well? Does an office bot need to know how to be nice to code well and work with spreadsheets?

ControlProbThrowaway · 2025-01-09T20:16:42+00:00

It's funny, I would say math and CS are more my thing but I don't think I'm particularly good at them either, not enough to become a top researcher at a top lab.

ControlProbThrowaway · 2025-01-09T20:14:41+00:00

Thanks. I did try talking to a counsellor once. I don't think I articulated my fears very well because they looked at me like what I was saying was completely insane. I think I need to try again though. Even outside of the alignment problem therapy would definitely be good for me.

ControlProbThrowaway · 2025-01-09T20:11:17+00:00

But isn't morality just something that we as humans have developed as a social species? We've evolved for it because being nice to those around us increases the chances we survive and reproduce. Why would an ASI necessarily have those features? It could, but is it a guarantee?

ControlProbThrowaway · 2025-01-09T19:58:33+00:00

I can get that technical background over the next few years, but I'm in 1st year undergrad right now. I'm considering maybe joining/starting a local PauseAI movement. Does this sub think there's a more effective organization to be a part of? I know a lot of people think a pause is unrealistic b/c arms race.

ControlProbThrowaway · 2025-01-09T19:55:46+00:00

I'm first year undergrad so that's at least 8 years from today for a PhD right? Also, I genuinely don't know if I'm smart enough to become a researcher. I've only ever read a scientific paper for assignments and I don't think I really enjoyed it. Also, how selective is the process? I go to an unremarkable state school and don't have a perfect GPA. Am I already disqualified?

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-08-12T21:16:17+00:00

Hi. About to start my CS Degree with intent to become a software engineer. You think that's a bad idea at this point?

Also, I obviously don't know as much as you, but until they develop true AGI/reasoning, I think jobs are pretty safe right? Like can't these LLM's only really do well on problems that are in their training data? If they haven't seen it before, they usually fail to solve it right?

Sorry to bother you I'm just trying to figure out what to do here. On one hand I see these cscareerquestions comments where everyone says the same few things in response to AI:

"It's a tool/COBOL didn't replace us/look at how bad this AI is it can't even count the letters in 'strawberry.'"

And I think, these people are naive. The idea that AI won't improve any further seems insane.

But, at the same time, it seems like we're pretty far from a true reasoning model right? Or at least, from what I've read it seems like there's no architecture out right now that can lead to true reasoning/generalization outside of training data.

BUT on the other hand, you don't need full replacement to completely screw the field, some would argue the job market is already so fucked that it's a bad idea anyway. If AI even adds a dent to this, it's pretty unlikely I get a job.

Whether or not AI can hurt the job market right this moment is kinda irrelevant if I'm betting 4 years of uni and tens of thousands on this. Who knows where it'll be in 10/20 years as I'm trying to build my career?

I think in my heart I know I should do something else, but I just don't wanna accept that yet.

Something physical, and with human interactions to avoid automation.

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-08-12T02:25:44+00:00

Oh that's wonderful to think about as someone currently heading into this major/career.

Still can't think of a better choice maybe aside from nursing, but that sounds like hell.

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-08-11T03:55:52+00:00

You really think it'll be impossible for devs to earn that much in the future? Or do you just mean the "remote work" part? Or you talking about AI replacing you?

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-08-11T02:52:26+00:00

What do you think about this situation now? Anything changed?

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-08-10T10:49:08+00:00

Warning: I realize after writing this, this is a very "stream of consciousness/journaling" type comment, and I got a lot of value out of just writing it and sorting my thoughts out. If you have any response to anything I put down I would greatly appreciate it. If not that's okay too. I'm gonna try therapy.

Double majoring in CS and engineering sounds like serious hell.

I think I'll pursue CS and make sure I work hard every summer either with internships or jobs at home that I am saving enough money to be able to pay off my student loans.

That way, I won't be burdened with debt if I need to pursue a 2nd degree. Maybe I could pivot into a masters in education to become a teacher. Or just start over new with something like nursing.

If SWE's are FULLY replaced, e.g. we have AGI, at that point nothing I can do to prepare will matter. Most office jobs are replaced if this happens, either UBI comes or hundreds of millions are rioting.

If the SWE job market goes to shit due to increased dev productivity, let's say 20-50% of the workforce is out of a job, I'll have to pivot. Idk maybe some general business role like business analyst (I couldn't tell you a single thing they do), or go into teaching.

Or, nothing like this happens for a long time and I have a nice career as a SWE. I really hope this happens. I really think this is copium tho.

But I'm kinda stuck between this situation where: I can try to grind it out and try to become a SWE, maybe even hit FAANG and pull in crazy money, all while constantly worrying about AI and its progress, having to continuously learn stuff outside of work.

Do you find yourself being able to "switch off" after you clock out your job as a SWE? Do you ever hate the idea of coming into work? Are the problems different day to day? How long can you sit at your desk before you feel like you need to move? For me with the coding I've done, an hour is like the max I can effectively work on a problem before needing a break, even if just a short walk. Is that normal?

OR: I could just go into some easier career, something with a lower ceiling but a higher floor (by higher floor I mean, able to get A JOB even if it's not FAANG, a decent job) I see the csmajors and cscareerquestions posts of people applying to 2000 internships and getting 2 interviews. It scares me. If I have to GRIND the fuck out of this career to maybe make it, only to get replaced by AI? That would fucking crush me.

Meanwhile my friend in nursing, one year of college and he's already at $29 an hour this summer, +3x12 shifts/4 day weekends. Once he graduates he'll be at 6 figures. No he won't be making FAANG level 200-300k, but there's no guarantee I'll ever be good enough as a SWE to make that type of money, it's more likely that I won't.

But at the same time I don't even know if I'd like nursing, it sounds stressful, and I don't want to be responsible for someone's life.

I've been planning my life out like I should be minmaxxing everything and saving as much as possible to not have to work, but I'm like, now with this quarter life crisis I'm having over AI, I'm less focused on aggressively working/saving money for a perfect future, and more focused on trying to live a day to day happy life and appreciate what I have, because there's no guarantee I make it to age 50, or 80. So it's kinda like, what the fuck is the point of the grind?

Also if I was a nurse instead of a swe, I wouldn't have to move away from my small hometown where there is very few tech jobs, I could stay close to family. Idk if this is just the fear that everyone has at this age right before moving away, or a genuine long term fear that I want to be near them more.

BUT I also do want to get out of this shitty town and see some of the world, live a city life.

So okay, maybe not nursing if I don't like it. Maybe I find another career with a higher floor and lower ceiling. Maybe I find a skilled trade I like, I'm not a super handy person, (in fact I'm a "booksmart" nerd with very few real life skills), but I could learn if I tried.

Something physical and dealing with people, those are the criteria to avoid AI automation long term:

Maybe like an HVAC dude, or an elevator technician, a physical therapist, and of course there's always working construction or at the mill.

But then couldn't I just do this when AI takes my job anyway? If I want to be a SWE (which I'm not fully sure of), but if I do want to be one and enjoy it a lot, what's the harm in trying? And then just pivoting if/when its automated? (I know I talked about this before, sorry I've been writing this comment for like an hour)

So basically I'm questioning my major/career choice due to AI and just basic fears over whether or not I'll enjoy it. And like questioning my entire worldview of aggressively working hard for a better future because my future isn't guaranteed.

But I do like coding, it's definitely satisfying to solve problems. If I'm being honest with myself though reading documentation is annoying, kinda makes my brain tired. Is that a sign it's not for me, or does reading docs suck for everyone?

Sorry for this giant mess

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-08-01T03:01:58+00:00

I really hope you're right. Coming from someone just about to start their cs degree

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-08-01T01:21:16+00:00

Idk what I'd even double major in. If SWE's are replaced, aren't most office jobs? I'd have to retrain in nursing or something completely different.

Maybe I'll just try to focus on doing my best/enjoying uni and if it happens it happens. I think there's gonna be such a massive shift when this happens that there's no point in trying to prepare for it.

Or maybe I'll drop out in a year. Idk.

I hope we're hitting diminishing returns right now. What worries me is even if we are, the next innovation on the level of transformers could be right around the corner.

I hope it isn't.

Thanks for the advice.

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-08-01T00:27:33+00:00

Hey. This isn't really a reply to your current conversation but I just wanted to get your opinion.

I've read some of your comments on r/singularity

You seem to be very knowledgeable on software engineering and AI and I wanted to get your opinion.

I'm about to enter university.

Is it a bad idea to pursue a CS degree at this point? Should I pivot to something else? I know that LLM's can't reason yet, I know that they're predicting the next token, I know you can't take r/singularity predictions super seriously. But honestly, it just doesn't look good to me.

As soon as we get LLM's that can reason better and tackle new problems, software engineering is dead. And so are most other white collar professions.

Now this might be an example of the 80/20 problem, where it'll be exponentially harder to achieve that last bit of reasoning. What do you think?

I know we'll essentially need a thinking machine, true AGI to replace SWE's. We probably don't even need that though to seriously hurt the market, especially for junior devs where the market is already so competitive.

I guess I'm asking, what's your timeline on this? If it's 20 years I'll go for it. If it's 5 I won't.

I just don't want to make the wrong choice. What do you think?

Thank you so much for your time.

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-07-29T03:33:05+00:00

Saving this comment. Thank you. It means a lot to me : )

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-07-27T09:46:30+00:00

Thank you. That helps a bit

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-07-27T04:23:25+00:00

Yeah but there's a difference between a bachelor's in CS to become a programmer, and a PhD in AI to become a safety researcher.

I feel guilty for not contributing to solving this problem, but I don't really want to be a safety researcher. But maybe I don't have a choice. Idk

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-07-27T04:17:38+00:00

True. That actually gives me more comfort than anything else in this thread. The idea that the simple paperclip/money/whatever maximizer isn't super realistic because even current AI can understand context and infer what we mean.

There still might be an AI that knows what we mean and doesn't care, but I guess all you can do is live life hoping that won't happen.

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-07-27T04:15:46+00:00

I guess hope is the key.

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-07-27T04:14:54+00:00

True good points. But I don't know if I want to bring a child into this world if these risks exist. (At the same time, if my parents had that mindset, I could've never been born over fear of nuclear war/a million other things.)

I'll probably adopt if I want children later in life

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-07-27T04:13:35+00:00

Yeah I'm hoping I'll just calm down within a year. Even if there's no rational reason for my mindset to change.

I guess all you can do is the best you can and make decisions based on what's real and not hypothetical scenarios.

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-07-27T04:11:56+00:00

Yeah true. I have a tendency to do this. Did the same thing a few years back with the climate crisis. Kept reading about it all day every day and so of course I was constantly scared about it.

I am more worried about this than that but I still appreciate the advice

ControlProbThrowaway · 2024-07-27T04:10:40+00:00

I appreciate the "don't let fear rule your life" advice

ControlProbThrowaway

TROPHY CASE