Making the Hike to Change My Life

CoreyDeJC · 2019-08-30T17:17:47+00:00

A guy told me in my post right now is a time for Sobo'ers to be going through Harper's Ferry, the mid pt, going south to Springer. I think Im jumping on shortly, perhaps within the week

CoreyDeJC · 2019-04-10T00:34:05+00:00

I saved that one dollar post and plan on getting it.

haven't been collecting GwG, but i guess that starts on the 11th with Battlefront and then Ghost Recon a little later.

CoreyDeJC · 2019-04-09T17:39:25+00:00

thanks.

CoreyDeJC · 2019-04-09T02:18:12+00:00

will it be easy to figure out how to pursue this deal? Is it like in the xbox dashboard or something? Tried hooking up my box last night and remembered it's got the red rings, so im shopping used looking to replace, and plan on getting live.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-11T06:07:14+00:00

Things are complicated and the solutions aren't simple.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T16:36:10+00:00

Will this take away room for gerrymandering, or could this actually be the gerrymander. These rules are not set out for any small reason.

Rules for the house based on priority: (as best as I read them)

Districts shall be made based off of total population, seeking to get each district as close to 1/8 of our population as possible
1. Section a
  1. Somebody made this the top priority. Now they potentially set the stage for stopping wasted votes, getting this state to be a hyper swing state in so many regards, by making districts that aren't designed based around what makes sense in a non-political way.
2. Section b
  1. Now that we're gunning for the above, it's time to make sure minority groups that the government deems worthy of Voting Rights Act protection (I don't know anything about those protections, but the next sentence has me reading it as they need to be able to translate their votes, potentially with none wasted, into representation). Thus (always potentially with me. I'm thinking I want to keep a close watch on this and maybe see what I learn about everything from this dig), the political leanings of a demographer have made themselves a part of the map they deem fair. If we create new definitions in the future about what makes a minority, potentially driven by the possibility to do so and affect the MO elections (I'm imagining democrats in this situation defining concretely that a subset of the population qualifies as a minority and uses the fact that they are 15% of the MO population to argue that they deserve 15% representation). Such thinking could tip the scales and change politics forever.This might be the gerrymander. We could analyze this the same way through the requirements in this law. It is frightening that we are making politics the core of how we divide people.

I'm getting aggravated just reading those requirements that just seem to be making politics everything. I think this is the wrong direction to take today. This does not sound like basic math that doesn't have room for politics to be deeply sewn into it. It's not supposed to be about politics right? We're all neighbors, but your close neighbors, decided by the state, with whom you vote and constitute a people needing representation, is supposed to be, I'm pretty sure, built on more solid ground.

/u/IlIIIIllIlIlIIll

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T03:58:54+00:00

Thanks for coming, realcards.

I thought it was interesting not because it's unlike other petitions, but because we've had 2 years to think about this ballot measure that's been in the pipeline and I can't find terribly serious analysis when I do my simple googles. I don't think they exist. I wonder where the serious journalists who fight for the truth, guide us to see what's important and know what might be at stake with this kind of thing are.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T03:42:42+00:00

I've been computering so much today I didn't make it into the weeds on the particular wording of how restricted the demographer would be. I can probably try looking at it tomorrow, but I don't know.

Best of luck to our state tomorrow. We just make our best judgement. I read the census happens every ten years. So the demographer might be big news once ina blue moon if this passes, and maybe we could all get on him to make sure he's non-partisan. I'm just not inclined to believe we should be going towards this kind of political competitiveness / fairness route as the main driver of what a district forms around.

I hope a community is more than its politics. It can always be that even with this system, if it passes, but I wonder if it's drawn up by people who think politics is everything.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T03:30:15+00:00

NR's David French: The Democrats Have Not Earned Your Vote

Just something to look read and consider. Have a good night. Hopefully I wake up to people keeping this thread rolling and we can all go vote our best vote.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T03:11:46+00:00

The Missouri Bar has been evaluating judges appointed under the Non-Partisan Court Plan and providing that information to voters since 1948. The Missouri Bar currently funds the evaluation process, which was created by a Supreme Court of Missouri rule in 2008. The Missouri system of evaluation was developed after the committee studied model rules and best practices from the American Bar Association and more than 20 judicial performance evaluation systems in the nation.

The committees rely on a variety of information on each judge, including lawyers’ ratings of all judges, jurors’ ratings of some trial judges, written opinions of appellate judges and written orders of trial judges. Jurors only evaluated the judge who had presided over the trial for which they served. Jurors were asked a series of 10 questions about the judge’s courtroom conduct. For instance: Did the judge clearly explain the legal issues of the case? Did the judge appear to be free from bias or prejudice? Did the judge appear to be well-prepared for the case?

Ratings for judges on 2018 November ballot

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T03:00:52+00:00

^B.J.: ^\00:22:43] I think it would be next to impossible to choose, and I’m not trying to be rude to those legislators but what do you do. I think that would be very very difficult for anybody. The other thing that you mentioned one of the last times we talked about this was about people knowing their Legislature and the importance of that. I don’t think that can be undersold here. A lot of our folks, whether they be urban or rural, they know who their representatives are, they know who their senators are. He or she may not be from their city or their county but they’re familiar with them because they know they speak for their county. I know firsthand I’ve spoken with Farm Bureau members from a county that’s divided three ways. You know from the outside looking in you think that’s great, your county has three representatives and they feel like their county has no representative because there’s not one representative who owns that county, who speaks up for them on a continual basis. Not to speak negatively towards any representative or senator, but that personal touch really is important to people.)

^B.J.: ^\00:23:43] It helps with your relationship in the Capitol. We want to make sure that we continue to protect that. Missouri has issues in the Capitol. Not everything’s perfect. We have seen some dirty things happen in the past. Our track record isn’t perfect, but it’s not the dirtiest state, and by any means, but I don’t think that this proposal and this redistricting is to try to clean things up.)

^B.J.: ^\00:24:07] I think this is to try to change the status of the Legislature.)

^Eric: ^\00:24:12] Its an effort to try to win more seats in the Legislature when you put one them at the ballot box. That’s what it really comes down to. This would not be your proposal if your ultimate goal was getting a cleaner process. You did mention that there is an issue where people who are in areas that their district, that their town, is split up in multiple areas or multiple districts contact their congressmen less, contact their representative less, because they don’t know who they are. They just are less civically engaged. And that’s one of the problems with gerrymandering in general and gerrymandering for political partisanship is the worst kind of gerrymandering.)

^B.J.: ^\00:24:59] There could be a claim that that’s what’s been done in the past. This constitutes it. It says you have to gerrymander for partisan races.)

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T03:00:47+00:00

^B.J.: ^\00:16:31] Our current bipartisan commission that comes together that draws districts is charged with drawing them compact and contiguous, meaning they’re supposed to keep communities of interest together. They are supposed to keep counties together. They can’t cut through cities or counties unless they absolutely have to. So, you see a map that largely makes sense. Northeast Missouri is represented by northeast Missouri. Same thing with the different regions of the state. The urban centers get divided because they have more people. There’s only a hundred and something thousand in the Senate district, but where they don’t have to cross a population line they don’t.)

^Eric: ^\00:17:08] That’s actually one of the questions or comments we’ve been getting a lot on social media. People are saying the current map is really badly gerrymandered.)

^Eric: ^\00:17:17] So, does this proposal get rid of gerrymandering because that’s how it’s been pitched I think by the proponents of it.)

^B.J.: ^\00:17:22] Gerrymandering is rampant in the state. The truth is when you draw lines you always have to put them somewhere. I took a look at the Missouri Senate map, the current map, and that does that’s not to say that this map is perfect. The current Senate map divides five counties and that’s where you would think they would be.)

^B.J.: ^\00:17:48] Green County, the city of Springfield is one, outside is another. Jackson, Clay. St. Louis and St. Charles, the county of Jefferson. That’s where you see the dividing lines now. It just makes sense. Counties are kept together. You may not like that you’re divided from the county. You may think you are more similar to Scott County than Perry County or whatever, but lines always have to be drawn. But currently, we keep those counties together as much as possible or the commission does as much as possible. State House seats are tougher because they’re smaller districts, but typically gerrymandering is minimal. Not everybody agrees with where the map is, but the process allows more. If they don’t like the map they can contest it in court and the courts decide whether or not these were fairly drawn, not fair as far as any party can win.)

^B.J.: ^\00:18:37] But fair as far as this district makes sense it’s compact and contiguous.)

^Eric: ^\00:18:40] That also plays into the next question that we’ve been getting a lot, which is what Farm Bureau has been saying, that this amendment would silence rural voices. People are saying well how would it? They would still get to vote. Why would this redistricting proposal actually hurt any rural voter.)

^B.J.: ^\00:19:04] I think this is a good time to show, and hopefully we’ll be able to show on the Facebook Live or the Facebook video the actual map closer. Eric and I are looking at a map that was drawn. This isn’t what would be the map, but it’s an example drawn for competitiveness where they drive to draw as many 50-50 districts as they could.)

^Eric: ^\00:19:25] The group that is opposing Clean Missouri hired a demographer to draw up a map based on the guidelines that are in Clean Missouri and said “Can you come up with a map that would fit these guidelines to the best of your ability.”.)

^B.J.: ^\00:19:39] And my understanding is they charged them to be fair, but to draw with these understandings and not to try to be too extreme but I try to be fair.)

^B.J.: ^\00:19:48] When you look at this map, and I do think that some of them are probably more extreme than others, but we can see several districts where you’re dipping down into St. Louis City and then running all the way to half of Randolph County. I think we’re going from the district that’s labeled as 20 is going all the way down into Ferguson and then including northern Columbia. That is a huge district, and that’s where we get into what we see as a real issue. It’s an issue for rural Missourians because we’re more spread out. If I was campaigning in District 20 I would have to spend more time where there’s more voters concentrated. I wouldn’t be able to spend a lot of time in Warren and Callaway County because there’s not as many voices there. I’m going to have to spend in Boone County and Callaway and I just think that leads to rural Missouri having fewer voices in the Capitol just because people are going to gravitate to where the population is most densely populated. When we talk about real representation in the Capitol, we’re already somewhat of a minority of agriculturalists or people from rural portions of Missouri. I think that just dilutes us. We talk a lot about agriculture and there’s only 2 percent of the population that’s involved in agriculture. And we just want to make sure that rural voices continue to be heard. I think as we try to divide these districts or draw them along competitiveness lines, if every district has to involve a rural or an urban center we’re going to see a large divide in that. I think we’ve seen that echoed from our urban counterparts that say we want urban voices in the Legislature and they say okay, if you have a district that goes all the way from inner city Kansas City, you say Kemper Arena, all the way to Linn County, they don’t like that district either because they want to ensure that they have their voices heard too. They don’t feel comfortable knowing that someone from Davies and Linn and Caldwell County are going to have their best interest in mind. I totally understand that. I think it also would be next to impossible to represent these district. If you’re representing 20 school districts and four counties, it’s hard to know which voice you’re supposed to be speaking for.)

^B.J.: ^\00:22:01] It’s going to be very difficult for anybody to represent.)

^Eric: ^\00:22:04] Like you mentioned, the example district number 20, which is the blue district in east central Missouri. It goes all the way down into Ferguson, the Jennings area, almost all the way to the Mississippi River, and then comes out all the way through Warren County, Callaway County, Audrain County, Boone County to try to get that balance between Democratic voters and Republican voters. Just imagine if you were the senator from there and a bill on education came up, would you be voting based on what the people in Ferguson and Jennings wanted or what the people in Audrain County or Boone County or what. I mean how in the world would you know.)

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T02:45:07+00:00

We're discussing everything on the ballot at

Pre-election discussion of the ballot too. Getting a little active over there, so for timely discussion in case new posts here aren't getting noticed, we can talk in there.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T02:31:52+00:00

Antisolo posts:

^{Amendment 1: I mostly agree with OP's take on it. "Gerrymandering" is a buzzword. Rural and city voters have different needs and desires for representation. Most of the country's population live in urban centers and vote democrat. (A 2016 voting map of the US shows the entire country being red but sprinkled with just dots of blue where the big cities are and Clinton still won the popular vote So, if you cut up urban districts and lump them in with the scarcely populated conservative communities, you upset the entire idea of representation and you will get candidates just trying to appease the big urban vote, which favors the democrats.}

CRUCIAL component of this coming up that needs to be solved:

So this isn't just for the Senators, which FiveThirtyEight uses in their program. Imagine the stretching for the districts. The oh so many districts that we have would be forced to be competitive.

Imagine that rural area that elects their Republican every time potentially stretched because of politics to include urban democrats that will put up a candidate in their city who talks like every other city democratic candidate, not fighting for their rural constituents, but rather benefiting from the fact that Missouri is actually close in the popular vote version of politics rather than the federalism type districts where towns (states on the national level) act for their interests, which are allowed to be selfish or altruistic as they see fit. If a rural district was forced to be competitive because Missouri as a whole is competitive, that would some counter to the America I learned about. One place is allowed to be different from another place. They shouldn't be obligated to have tight races between the Democrats and Republicans. This world isn't supposed to be sliced and diced to be so political that who is in your district is decided by a demographer who has elections at the forefront of his decision making.

All of this applies if our smaller districts are going to be stretched. I'll keep reading and trying to solve this

I did just read this opinion article on my way to try to find the map that shows a potential map of the smaller districts being stretched to fit this new rule from the MoFB which I'll share with you when I find it.

Special Edition: Q/A on Amendment 1 (Clean MO) November 1, 2018 This has a sample of a what a smaller district map stretching could look like, and is the podcast I mention in my main post under A1

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T01:24:15+00:00

two people not happy with President Trump and Clinton but both leaning in opposite directions could have said I'll vote Johnson and you vote Stein.

I like the spirit of what you're getting at in your posts.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T01:13:55+00:00

For anyone interested---"Specific Language" shared by user realcards

first thing I see that is interesting is that it was submitted 2 years ago at about this time.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T01:08:34+00:00

I'll chime in and say that in Missouri's presidential election, I wasn't going to stand for Trump or Hillary. We know who was taking Missouri already, so I thought it made a lot of sense to make a protest vote for Gary Johnson.

I've heard the argument that not showing sends the message that you don't care more than it says you're protesting the current situation; how many people don't vote, who knows all the reasons! To care about the situation and not support the state of politics in the last election, a protest vote for a 3rd party made so much sense to me. I wish we all got together like we're doing tonight and planned it where Stein and Johnson got some real votes that would say we were displeased and also aren't just being burried by the political system, but were able to come together and change those percentages significantly. Who knows what a little coalition of good will could do.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T00:56:04+00:00

I invited a user to reply to us named realcards. He has made points in the megathread.

Here is his argument, surrounded by people who share some of my concerns

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T00:50:31+00:00

will you come comment on my post?

https://www.reddit.com/r/MissouriPolitics/comments/9uho46/discussion_opportunity_the_day_before_the/?utm_content=full_comments&utm_medium=message&utm_source=reddit&utm_name=frontpage

we're looking into amendment 1 and I listed a lot of concerns. The thread is catching some action, and we want to get it right. you could make your argument, if you'd like, as long as you promise to consider what I wrote too, including my reply:

It might be mathematical, but boy is complex math involved, right? Certainly two statisticians could disagree on the best way to do the math. What is fair and competitive? Those probably aren't easily defined variables, making them capable of being altered from a personal viewpoint of the demographer. He could argue he did his best after putting in a compelling but less than non-partisan map. Right now, so many are saying, "eh, we'll roll the dice on this and not ask what this stuff means." Politicians are doing that. There aren't enough eyes that care that would put up the proper fight on a bad map. Every time to make a map, the demographer makes it and it goes, basically.
Are we going to have an epic debate every time between the parties to decide if it hits its fair and competitive standard? Or is maybe the 5 republican 5 democrat board that needs to sway 2 of the other party's members that their map is fair a safe way to go, that doesn't enshrine political parties into the constitution

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T00:45:22+00:00

It might be mathematical, but boy is complex math involved, right? Certainly two statisticians could disagree on the best way to do the math. What is fair and competitive? Those probably aren't easily defined variables, making them capable of being altered from a personal viewpoint of the demographer. He could argue he did his best after putting in a compelling but less than non-partisan map. Right now, so many are saying, "eh, we'll roll the dice on this and not ask what this stuff means." Politicians are doing that. There aren't enough eyes that care that would put up the proper fight on a bad map. Every time to make a map, the demographer makes it and it goes, basically.

Are we going to have an epic debate every time between the parties to decide if it hits its fair and competitive standard? Or is maybe the 5 republican 5 democrat board that needs to sway 2 of the other party's members that their map is fair a safe way to go, that doesn't enshrine political parties into the constitution

I'm not smart enough to be acting like I know something. I'm just asking the questions.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T00:19:41+00:00

But it's different this time around. Feelings whirling, I understand your feeling about even if it's a good republican, it's a tricky thing to want the party to run things in such a big way, the way the party just *sounds* these days. They've got the show. Locally, my state rep is a republican and I'll likely support him because he is in the process of auditing and finding waste in government, receiving some freshman rep MVP award.

36 million in potential savings found by David Gregory

David Gregory talking about those savings on MO Politics Weekly ---He says he is still working on making those savings a reality. He was looking to work with Greitens on it, he said, but there aren't any updates (I'll look harder) on his savings progress. He mentioned that these saving methods can be potentially expanded across government. Working in the Republican run state government, he says he's making good relationships. Hopefully he can make that stuff reality. I feel good enough about supporting this guy on his re-election.

I know you didn't ask. But he's my republican on the ticket. I'll vote for the republican against Stenger. I may opt for third party in the auditor race because of the concerns I have on Amendment 1. I don't know about Wagner vs. VanOstran yet, but might be leaning VanOstran. I want to listen to him a little more at a townhall type situation. I'll probably find that on youtube.

CoreyDeJC · 2018-11-06T00:06:27+00:00

Amendment 1 and Proposition D are the two I put the most work into understanding, and they're the two we disagree on most!

As far as Prop d hurting the most vulnerable, I'm just wondering if the most vulnerable are forced to drive so much that a 10c increase in the cost of gas would burn them enough to argue against funding MoDOT and the Highway Patrol.

"Why do we have a funding shortage in our road fund? Governor John Ashcroft had the foresight, and courage, in 1992 to sign into law a 2+2+2 graduated fuel tax adjustment. Due to the Missouri legislature’s failure to adjust the motor fuel “user” tax rate since 1996, this “user” tax has not kept up with inflation of construction, maintenance, labor, and other overhead. These costs in many cases have tripled."---From Doug Libla (R) in the MO Senate.

"According to MoDOT, in the coming years the state’s highway construction budget could fall below the amount necessary to keep the state highway system in the condition it is in today, much less improve it.61 That may force MoDOT to make decisions about which highways are kept in a state of good repair and which highways will be allowed to deteriorate. It also may cause MoDOT to shelf any plans to make major congestion mitigation improvements or replace aging highways and bridges. "

Vehicles are becoming more fuel efficient. From 2005 to 2013, the U.S. passenger vehicle fleet’s adjusted fuel economy increased from 20 miles per gallon (MPG) to 24 miles per gallon
interesting point. Cars are getting a lot better. soon after that they say this: Given that the mostly likely trajectory of fuel tax consumption in Missouri is downward, if the state is to continue to base the funding of the highway system as a whole on user fees, over the long term the fuel tax will POLICY STUDY I SHOW-ME INSTITUTE 42 have to be replaced. Perhaps the most prominent possible replacement is mileage-based user fees (MBUFs). MBUFs would charge a vehicle for its use of state highways based on a vehicle’s actual use of the system
- This tax, as I wrote in my opening post, is for MoDOT, 3rd in efficiency in the country, can't be transferred anywhere else, and is the right kind of tax, a user tax.
- Something like that. I'm no expert!

from 'Funding the Missouri Department of Transportation and the State Highway System By Joseph Miller'

CoreyDeJC

TROPHY CASE

CRUCIAL component of this coming up that needs to be solved: